Nov 11, 2026 · 43 min
CoreWeave tests whether AI stocks can sustain their rebound
AI Relief Rally, Nvidia Governance and CoreWeave Earnings
The episode weighs improving AI infrastructure fundamentals against crowded positioning, financing constraints, governance risks, and higher-rate pressure.
- 1CoreWeave’s earnings beat and raised outlook helped revive confidence in AI infrastructure demand.
- 2Nvidia’s valuation looks more compelling after the selloff, but leadership and governance uncertainty remain significant risks.
- 3Healthcare, natural gas, optical fiber, and selected consumer stocks offer ways to diversify beyond the crowded AI trade.
Don't miss
Michael Santoli argues that the market’s relief rally needs stronger, less leveraged buyers to become a durable recovery, especially ahead of Nvidia earnings.
The brief
CoreWeave’s earnings beat, raised outlook, improving margins, and paused insider-sale program give the AI trade a fresh test: is demand strong enough to support the infrastructure buildout?
Nvidia remains the central fault line. The panel sees strong growth, cash flow, customer demand, and CUDA support, while governance concerns and Jensen Huang’s leadership risk complicate the valuation case.
The semiconductor selloff may have cleared crowded leveraged positioning, but a durable recovery still depends on distinguishing chip categories, financing conditions, power availability, and interest-rate pressure.
The discussion broadens beyond AI into natural gas, Corning’s optical-fiber backlog, healthcare, resilient consumers, Costco’s special dividend, and Cisco’s AI-networking opportunity.
Michael Santoli’s market memo delivers the episode’s key caution: holding important technical levels is not enough if the rebound cannot attract stronger, less leveraged buyers before Nvidia earnings.
Final trades span Monolithic Power Systems, Disney, QQQs, and Amphenol, underscoring a market still searching for selective exposure rather than another crowded basket.
What was said on this episode
40 statements · 32 positive · 7 negative · 1 neutral
Jensen Huang may not complete his tenure as NVIDIA CEO.
“It certainly is possible, Scott, that Mr. Wong does not serve out his tenure as a CEO.”
Listen at 2:27
NVIDIA’s $200 price target is too low.
“I think 200 is too low.”
Listen at 3:34
NVIDIA earnings are projected to grow about 75% over the next year.
“The growth rate in earnings is projected at about 75% in the year ahead.”
Listen at 3:49
NVIDIA is expected to generate more than $300 billion in free cash flow over 12 months.
“$300 billion plus. of free cash flow being generated in the next 12 months.”
Listen at 4:11
NVIDIA’s CUDA architecture cannot be readily replaced because developers build on it.
“you can't replace the cuda architecture every developer builds on it”
Listen at 6:15
NVIDIA’s current problem is governance rather than demand or its business.
“This is not a demand issue. This is not a business issue. This is a governance issue”
Listen at 6:30
NVIDIA may face a prolonged business overhang from governance concerns.
“there might be an elongated overhang over the business.”
Listen at 6:41
NVIDIA has 90% market share in advanced chips.
“90% share of advanced chips.”
Listen at 6:54
CoreWeave’s margins and contracted backlog are improving.
“margins are improving. the backlog is actually rising.”
Listen at 9:37
Lower AI costs and higher intelligence drive greater AI adoption.
“all things equal this drives more adoption.”
Listen at 10:19
Current and planned data-center capacity is already covered by demand.
“the data centers that are currently being brought online and currently being built are spoken for in terms of. demand.”
Listen at 11:25
Alphabet’s cloud business is growing 100%.
“one thing that's growing like a weed is their cloud business up 100%.”
Listen at 11:39
Customers will continue financing AI demand through capital markets.
“I don't think there's going to be a change in that personally.”
Listen at 12:47
Semiconductor stocks have bottomed for the rest of the year.
“bottomed for the remainder of the year? Yes.”
Listen at 14:38
Semiconductor stocks may decline again sometime in 2027.
“Do I think we roll over at some point in 2027? I think that's possible.”
Listen at 14:41
Momentum stocks will lead markets higher through year-end.
“I do believe that it's that momentum factor that leads us higher into the end of the year.”
Listen at 15:20
Semiconductor earnings have not yet peaked.
“I don't think the semiconductor earnings have peaked.”
Listen at 15:36
Semiconductor earnings are expected to grow about 110% year over year.
“earnings for semiconductors are going to grow something like 110 percent year over year”
Listen at 15:46
Selling pressure from the concentrated AI trade appears to be ending.
“it looks like it's coming to an end.”
Listen at 18:00
AI compute infrastructure will be built; delays concern timing, not demand.
“I think this compute does get built. It's a timing issue, not a demand issue.”
Listen at 20:11
Existing data-center providers’ scarcity premium has increased.
“that scarcity premium has absolutely gone up.”
Listen at 20:30
Grid interconnection currently takes five or six years.
“it still takes now five. or six years to be in line for connection to the grid.”
Listen at 20:46
Investors should not abandon companies addressing power bottlenecks.
“I think it's a long-term trade not to give up on.”
Listen at 20:57
Market leadership is shifting back toward AI stocks.
“I think the basket is moving back to the AI trade.”
Listen at 22:29
The Fed should raise rates 50 basis points in December.
“I'd love it if they did 50 basis points in December.”
Listen at 24:00
Oil’s downward trend is reversing and will continue.
“I think that is going to continue i think the trend is reversing in oil”
Listen at 26:30
Investors should avoid adding energy exposure except natural gas.
“I don't know that I would be adding to energy exposure here except for natural gas.”
Listen at 26:39
Devon’s low-cost operations provide financial flexibility, making it an easy hold.
“I think there's a lot of financial flexibility in a company like Devin that makes it an easy hold if you want to maintain exposure to the space.”
Listen at 27:43
EQT is at an attractive level to buy.
“I think this is the right level to buy it.”
Listen at 28:08
Corning’s already-ordered optical fiber will be delivered over two years.
“Over the next two years, it's going to be delivered.”
Listen at 29:19
Corning’s stock is attractive at its current level.
“I like where it sits right here.”
Listen at 29:29
AbbVie has delivered twice the market return with one-third the market risk.
“You're getting twice the market return for one-third of the market risk.”
Listen at 30:46
The market rebound is more than a reflex relief rally.
“this is more than just kind of a reflex. relief rally.”
Listen at 32:49
Consumer strain increases repair spending at AutoZone and O’Reilly.
“when consumers get strained, they fix what they have in AutoZone, O'Reilly.”
Listen at 35:13
Consumer financial strain is not stopping overall consumption.
“it's not stopping the consumer from consuming. Period. End of story.”
Listen at 36:42
Costco will exceed its previous high.
“Costco is going to take out that high.”
Listen at 38:16
Cisco will continue seeing strong AI-related networking demand.
“I still think you're going to see strong demand here on the AI side for networking.”
Listen at 40:08
Cisco’s current valuation and price level are attractive.
“I think the stock is close to a valuation and a price level that I think is attractive.”
Listen at 40:14
Cisco’s valuation reset leaves significant upside potential.
“I think it leaves room to the upside, significant room.”
Listen at 40:37
Monolithic Power Systems precisely delivers power for every AI chip.
“Every AI chip needs power delivered precisely. Monolithic power is the one doing it.”
Listen at 41:37
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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