Nov 25, 2025 · 44 min
Cramer warns new share supply could strain the bull market
Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 11/24/25
The episode connects AI competition, delayed economic data, retail real estate, stock-specific calls, and rising equity supply to the market’s next test.
- 1Gemini’s challenge to ChatGPT frames a broader technology race with implications for investors and market leadership.
- 2Kimco CEO Conor Flynn argues stronger occupancy, redevelopment, and limited retail supply can support the REIT’s income case.
- 3Cramer warns IPOs, insider selling, and underwriter activity may overwhelm demand and pressure an aging bull market.
Don't miss
Conor Flynn argues that retail bankruptcies can create redevelopment opportunities because replacement tenants are producing higher rents.
The brief
Cramer opens with the intensifying competition between ChatGPT and Gemini, then turns to a delayed slate of economic reports and how investors should read inflation data.
Individual stock calls span Tractor Supply, Keurig Dr Pepper, Six Flags, and Spotify, with operational recovery, dividends, subscriptions, and valuation shaping the arguments.
Kimco CEO Conor Flynn makes the case for retail real estate as occupancy improves: replacement tenants can pay higher rents while mixed-use redevelopment adds growth.
Flynn links Kimco’s outlook to consumer value-seeking, interest rates, cost of equity, and a signed development pipeline; Cramer presents the REIT as an income investment.
The Lightning Round covers aerospace, technology, infrastructure, REITs, space, defense, and insurance before Cramer returns to the market’s central supply problem.
Cramer closes by arguing that surging IPOs, insider selling, underwriter activity, and new share issuance could create enough supply to threaten the bull market.
What was said on this episode
38 statements · 23 positive · 14 negative · 1 neutral
Alphabet stock has risen 68% year to date.
“Alphabet, the parent of Gemini, has seen its stock rallying furiously. A real rocket ship is up 68% so far this year.”
Listen at 2:31
Google built Gemini using a proprietary chip designed with Broadcom.
“Google built Gemini on the backbone, not of NVIDIA, but on a proprietary chip designed with Broadcom”
Listen at 3:28
Gemini-driven slowing of OpenAI user growth could harm OpenAI and its partners.
“if OpenAI's user growth were to slow, even a tiny bit, because of Gemini, well, that could be a big problem for both OpenAI and, more importantly, its business partners.”
Listen at 4:01
Oracle can attract substantial demand for its data centers.
“I think that Oracle, which builds data centers better than anyone, can get lots of takers for its product.”
Listen at 4:28
Businesses dependent on ChatGPT have become more precarious.
“if your business is hanging on ChatGPT, it just became more precarious.”
Listen at 4:38
Amazon Web Services is growing adequately despite doubters’ concerns.
“I think the doubters are wrong. It's going just fine.”
Listen at 5:46
Tesla is valued primarily around Musk’s autonomy and robotics vision.
“Tesla's now about Elon Musk's vision of self-driving cars and robots”
Listen at 5:58
Gemini is ChatGPT’s biggest competitive threat to date.
“Gemini is the biggest threat to chat GPT we've seen so far.”
Listen at 7:03
OpenAI needs a superior response to Gemini or its reputation will deteriorate.
“The emperor better have something better, something to strike back, because otherwise the narrative will be that open AI has no clothes.”
Listen at 7:12
Investors should buy Tractor Supply stock.
“I'm going to say you want to buy that one.”
Listen at 7:49
Lower-than-expected PPI would benefit stocks by enabling Fed rate cuts.
“If we get a number or something smaller like that, I think it'll be a huge win for the stock market because lower inflation gives the Federal Reserve more leeway to cut interest rates.”
Listen at 10:14
PPI above 2.6% would negatively affect the stock market.
“If the PPI comes in higher than 2.6, that's the bogey, it will be a negative.”
Listen at 10:24
Higher pending home sales would make Fed rate cuts harder.
“If there's a pickup in pending home sales, that means the housing market's coming back to life, which actually makes it harder for the Fed to cut rates.”
Listen at 13:28
Housing needs interest-rate cuts, so weaker pending sales would be preferable.
“what housing needs more than anything are rate cuts, so I'm hoping for a bad number.”
Listen at 13:34
Encouraging economic data could sharply reduce December rate-cut odds.
“If we get more encouraging economic data over the next couple of weeks, we can easily see the odds of a December cut come down just as quickly as they went up”
Listen at 15:07
Six Flags’ new management can turn around the company with activist support.
“While Six Flags' new management should be able to turn things around with some help from Jan and partners and Travis Kelsey”
Listen at 22:16
Investors should approach Six Flags only with substantial patience.
“I wouldn't stick your neck out in this one unless you're willing to be incredibly patient because it's going to take a while”
Listen at 22:22
Keurig Dr Pepper stock is probably at its bottom.
“I think it very much is.”
Listen at 23:18
Kimco Realty’s stock price is mispriced relative to fundamentals.
“to me, what's wrong is the stock price.”
Listen at 25:01
Kimco Realty is positioned for growth.
“we're primed for growth.”
Listen at 25:31
Kimco Realty is on track for 6% earnings growth this year.
“We're on the way to do 6% this year.”
Listen at 26:08
Kimco’s replacement tenants pay 40% higher average rents and have better credit.
“on average, 40% higher rent on the backfill tenants. And it's a better credit tenant.”
Listen at 27:48
Retail real-estate supply has barely expanded for 13 years.
“So 13 years of no new supply, 0.3% of existing stock under construction.”
Listen at 29:13
Kimco has $71 million of signed pipeline NOI awaiting rent commencement.
“we've got in our signed but not open pipeline, $71 million of NOI, which is close to 5% of our NOI, sitting waiting rent commencement”
Listen at 31:42
Older investors should consider 5%-yielding stocks instead of high-flyers.
“everyone, especially people who are in their 50s, 60s, 70s, should be thinking about a 5% yielder to replace a high flyer.”
Listen at 32:05
Investors should hold Howmet Aerospace.
“I want you to hold Halmet.”
Listen at 33:36
Investors should wait before buying Marvell Technology.
“I want to wait for that fluff to be taken out of it. I'm not going to recommend the stock up $6.”
Listen at 34:19
Investors should hold FTAI Aviation.
“I want you to hold on to it, though.”
Listen at 35:04
Astera Labs is too highly valued at 82 times earnings to recommend.
“it sells at 82 times earnings. I mean, it's the most highly valued stock in the entire stock market. I cannot get behind at these prices”
Listen at 35:31
Jacobs Solutions is attractive enough to buy at $132.
“I can't speak highly enough about both Jacobs and the price that it's at. I would buy this thing at $132.”
Listen at 36:12
Investors should sell Iron Mountain if it rallies.
“But if it rallies at all, I do want you to sell it. I just don't see the upside.”
Listen at 36:48
Rocket Lab is attractive for a speculative investment at current prices.
“But as specs go, I like it at these prices.”
Listen at 37:23
Booz Allen Hamilton is undervalued and recommended at its current price.
“I think all the way down here, it sells at an incredibly low multiple. I'm going to take the other side of the sellers and recommend the stock.”
Listen at 37:43
Lemonade has become a preferred insurance platform for younger people.
“I do think that it's become the way for younger people to trade the whole complex of insurance.”
Listen at 38:37
Spotify is a strong subscription business and investors should buy it.
“It's a great subscription business, and I think you ought to buy the stock.”
Listen at 39:06
Excess stock supply can end the bull market.
“Once we have more supply than we can handle, we're headed straight to the slaughterhouse.”
Listen at 40:16
The 2021 IPO oversupply materially contributed to the 2022 bear market.
“the oversupply in 2021 contributed vitally to the bear market in 2022.”
Listen at 40:54
The current IPO market has too many deals.
“we still have too many deals for my taste.”
Listen at 43:16
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Books & mentions
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