Oct 21, 2026 · 1h 2m
Crypto faces an AI deadline before quantum’s arrival
How Crypto Can Survive If AI or Quantum Computers Break Its Cryptography
Blockchain systems may need to replace vulnerable cryptography before anyone knows whether a hidden breakthrough has already changed the threat landscape.
- 1No major production cryptographic scheme is known to be broken, but concealed AI advances make certainty difficult.
- 2Bunker mode and recovery forks may limit damage, yet durable protection depends on migrating to post-quantum algorithms.
- 3Crypto-agile systems can support multiple hash-based and lattice-based schemes as security assumptions and standards evolve.
Don't miss
Alex Pruden and Conor Deegan argue that crypto-agile migration matters more than relying on emergency mechanisms such as bunker mode.
The brief
Conor Deegan frames AI as a potentially present cryptographic threat, while quantum computing remains a future risk; the key question is whether preparation is already late.
Alex Pruden and Deegan explain how ECDSA authenticates blockchain transactions, then separate alarming claims about elliptic curves from evidence that any major scheme is broken today.
The guests debate whether exposed public keys could trigger catastrophic losses, and whether bunker mode, coordinated forks, or recovery plans could protect assets after a breakthrough.
Hash-based and lattice-based post-quantum schemes offer different tradeoffs, while NIST’s recommendations and years of scrutiny provide uneven evidence about their resilience.
The durable answer is crypto agility: institutions should migrate before a crisis and support multiple algorithms, rather than rely on increasingly elaborate emergency workarounds.
What was said on this episode
25 statements · 6 positive · 11 negative · 2 mixed · 6 neutral
Elliptic-curve cryptography is currently considered safe.
“to the best of our knowledge today, elliptic curves are safe.”
Listen at 9:28
Quantum computers will eventually break elliptic-curve cryptography.
“we know that elliptic curves will break. They will definitely break to quantum computing”
Listen at 9:38
Bitcoin and Ethereum will rely on elliptic curves for at least two more years.
“Bitcoin, Ethereum, which currently run on elliptic curves today and won't be migrating for the next minimum two years, they will be relying on these elliptic curves until then.”
Listen at 9:53
AI attacks have broken the HAWC and Macaulay cryptographic schemes.
“We've seen this. I mean, this has happened in the last two months. We've seen two schemes, one called HAWC, which is built off lattices, another called Macaulay, which is a different type of crypto system, but still requires quite a later structure, an algebraic structure internally. Both of these schemes have fallen to an AI attack.”
Listen at 11:37
Hash-based signatures can replace signatures but not necessarily shared-key encryption.
“you can always solve the signature problem by doing hash-based signatures, but you're not going to be able to necessarily solve this shared encryption problem.”
Listen at 16:00
Zcash privacy-preserving protocols rely on encryption.
“privacy preserving schemes, like, for example, Zcash, effectively do rely on this encryption, encrypted notes”
Listen at 16:19
Blockchain developers should not hastily discard existing cryptography.
“we shouldn't rush this and, you know, and throw, you know, and throw everything that we know is good away.”
Listen at 24:14
Blockchains can recover from catastrophic cryptographic failures.
“I think blockchains can recover.”
Listen at 27:24
Blockchain cryptography is unusually close to direct monetary control.
“the cryptography on blockchains is like the closest thing to money”
Listen at 28:45
Hash-based digital signature schemes avoid complex mathematical constructions.
“The point that Justin's referring to, and we'll get into the A16Z response, is that hash-based digital signature schemes don't have that maths.”
Listen at 33:34
NIST has standardized both lattice-based and hash-based post-quantum schemes.
“NIST, the National Institute of Standard Technology in the United States, has standardized two post-quantum schemes, a lattice one and a hash-based one.”
Listen at 34:54
Hash-based cryptography has worse performance and larger size than alternatives.
“Hash-based cryptography is bigger, slower, worse along many performance dimensions.”
Listen at 35:21
Blockchain security will shift from elliptic curves to multiple cryptographic schemes.
“we are going to leave the world of monolithic, elliptic curb security, and we're going to enter into a multipolar world”
Listen at 36:53
Hash functions have been retired more often than elliptic-curve cryptography.
“we've retired multiple versions of hash functions over the past 30, 40 years. We have not retired elliptic curve cryptography ever.”
Listen at 39:31
AI and quantum computing pose real threats to cryptography and cryptocurrency.
“Both AI and quantum are real, real threats to cryptography and to crypto alike.”
Listen at 40:46
Bitcoin generates an extremely large number of hashes per block.
“the number of hashes that get made for every single Bitcoin block is astronomically huge.”
Listen at 45:14
Doing nothing about cryptographic migration will have catastrophic consequences.
“choosing to do nothing, I absolutely think will have catastrophic consequences.”
Listen at 47:52
Chains that proactively act are more likely to fare better.
“my bet is on the chains that are at least choosing to do something”
Listen at 48:02
A realistic quantum attack may emerge around 2030 at the earliest.
“my earliest date where I think a quantum attack is realistic is probably around 2030.”
Listen at 50:01
Quantum attacks are more likely than not by 2033–2035.
“a chance where it's more likely than not is called, you know, the early to mid 2030s. So 2033 to 2035.”
Listen at 50:07
Recent quantum error-correction results increase the likelihood of earlier attacks.
“I think we are more likely in the case where it is earlier”
Listen at 50:15
AI cryptographic threats are expected sooner than quantum threats.
“The AI timelines are definitely more immediate than the quantum ones.”
Listen at 51:34
Blockchain ecosystems should begin post-quantum migration immediately.
“I think we begin this post-hunter migration fast, soon. If you haven't started planning this, you should do it today.”
Listen at 52:33
Elliptic curves are unlikely to break within a few months.
“I don't think elliptic curves are going to be broken in a couple of months.”
Listen at 52:44
Consensus-building, rather than mitigation design, is the main implementation challenge.
“The hard part is not coming up with ways in which to mitigate this. The hard part is how to figure out how to build this consensus”
Listen at 56:29
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Books & mentions
StrongPoint
It is the episode’s concrete example of institutional custody designed for post-quantum, multi-algorithm migration.
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