Aug 29, 2026 · 1h 7m

Debt, inflation and regime shifts test trend following

SI415: Maybe This Is Just What Normal Markets Look Like ft. Alan Dunne

Persistent inflation, fiscal concerns and weaker diversification assumptions are forcing investors to reconsider how portfolios should navigate a less stable macroeconomic regime.

3 key takeaways

1Higher long-term yields may signal normalization, inflation risk or growing concern about debt sustainability.
2CTA results vary widely because managers differ in markets traded, horizons, implementation and capacity constraints.
3Trend following offers diversification beyond 60/40 portfolios by adapting to sustained moves across difficult markets.

Don't miss

Alan Dunne’s explanation of three fractures separating today’s macro regime from the low-inflation, low-rate Great Moderation reframes the case for trend following.

The brief

Alan Dunne and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen begin with yen intervention, then widen the lens to August markets, bond yields, commodities and the striking dispersion among CTA managers.

The discussion challenges easy explanations for CTA positioning and performance, emphasizing that strategy horizon, asset-class coverage and implementation matter more than isolated price levels.

Fed communication, Jackson Hole and higher long-term yields become evidence in a larger debate: are markets normalizing, repricing inflation or questioning debt sustainability?

Alan describes three fractures in the old low-inflation, low-rate regime, while the hosts connect deglobalization and national self-interest to a more volatile market backdrop.

The closing case for trend following is practical rather than promotional: it can diversify traditional assets, participate in falling markets and help portfolios avoid persistent declines.

What was said on this episode

8 statements · 3 negative · 5 neutral

Niels Kaastrup-Larsenon Meta settlement with 29 statesNeutral7:31
A proposed settlement involves 29 states and Meta.
“the proposed or part of the proposed settlement between 29 states and Mark Zuckerberg's meta-organization”
Listen at 7:31
Niels Kaastrup-Larsenon Meta settlement versus Zuckerberg metaverse spendingNeutral8:01
Meta’s proposed settlement is small relative to Zuckerberg’s metaverse spending.
“$16.68 billion is not a lot of money compared to the $60 billion Mr. Zuckerberg spent on his metaverse”
Listen at 8:01
Niels Kaastrup-Larsenon Zuckerberg metaverse spendingNegative8:09
Zuckerberg’s metaverse spending appears to have wasted time and money.
“which seems to have been completely a waste of time and money”
Listen at 8:09
Niels Kaastrup-Larsenon Trend barometerNeutral8:52
The trend barometer was at 43 and indicated neutral conditions.
“the trend barometer as of yesterday. So, it's pretty neutral.”
Listen at 8:52
Niels Kaastrup-Larsenon August market conditionsNegative9:11
August had not been an easy month for markets despite respectable performance.
“August actually hasn't necessarily been an easy month”
Listen at 9:11
Niels Kaastrup-Larsenon Yen and U.S. bond-market interventionsNegative9:32
Yen and U.S. bond-market interventions went against the larger trend and hurt performance.
“both of which actually went against the bigger trend. So that would have hurt performance.”
Listen at 9:32
Niels Kaastrup-Larsenon Bitcoin and White House policiesNeutral10:00
Bitcoin’s move is completely tied to White House policy efforts.
“it's completely tied to some policies that the White House is trying to get through”
Listen at 10:00
Niels Kaastrup-Larsenon BitcoinNeutral10:18
Bitcoin moved approximately 25–30% over the preceding weeks.
“it certainly moved 25%, 30% or so in the last couple of weeks”
Listen at 10:18

Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.