Nov 8, 2026 · 1h 43m
Democrats debate what their midterm victory really means
What Happened on Tuesday? (Live from Crooked Con)
The conversation tests whether Democrats can turn a broad rejection of Trump into a durable, economically focused governing strategy before 2028.
- 1Democrats must audit turnout, persuasion, candidate quality, and messaging instead of letting factions claim the victory alone.
- 2Texas and other emerging battlegrounds now demand sustained investment, strong candidates, and coordinated campaigns well before 2028.
- 3Josh Shapiro argues Democrats need ambitious reforms on affordability, health care, immigration, AI, foreign policy, and electoral rules.
Don't miss
Josh Shapiro lays out an ambitious Democratic reform agenda spanning affordability, health care, AI, immigration, foreign policy, and electoral rules.
The brief
Live from Crooked Con, Jon Favreau, Dan Pfeiffer, Rebecca Katz, Carlos Odio, and Sarah Longwell examine the Democratic midterm victory, from turnout and Republican defections to candidate quality and breakthroughs in Texas.
The panel’s central argument is that Democrats should audit the win honestly: better conditions helped, but disciplined campaigns, compelling candidates, coordinated tickets, and sharper economic messaging mattered too.
They describe a possible post-partisan populism built around affordability, economic fairness, and opposition to oligarchic control, while warning that emerging battlegrounds require investment long before 2028.
Josh Shapiro argues that Democrats should pursue fundamental reforms rather than restore pre-Trump politics, with affordability, health care, immigration, AI regulation, and foreign policy at the center.
The standout tension is whether a coalition assembled to repudiate Trump can become a governing project—one capable of delivering concrete results without collapsing into factional warfare.
What was said on this episode
71 statements · 47 positive · 18 negative · 6 neutral
Many rural voters abstained or voted Democratic in the 2026 elections.
“it looks like not only did a lot of them not show up, a lot of them voted for Democrats.”
Listen at 2:33
- Rebecca Katzon Democratic elected officials’ staffPositive4:11
Competent staff is important for newly elected Democrats’ success.
“very competent staff matters.”
Listen at 4:11
Democrats may win roughly 260–265 House seats in the 2026 election.
“to get to maybe 260, 265 seats, never been seen even in the 2008 wave is crazy.”
Listen at 4:23
Large Democratic victories indicate political conditions are changing in the South.
“to win by a significant decisive margin suggests and suggested on Tuesday night that the winds are changing down south.”
Listen at 4:49
Democratic gains were approximately two-thirds turnout and one-third persuasion.
“My guess it is about... Two thirds turnout, one third persuasion, roughly speaking.”
Listen at 5:56
“We can't count that that's necessarily going to be the case in the presidential election.”
Listen at 6:16
Young Latinas have become a highly important U.S. voting bloc.
“young Latinas who are have emerged as one of the most important blocks in the entire American electorate.”
Listen at 8:05
Many dissatisfied Trump voters crossed party lines to vote Democratic.
“a lot of pissed off Trump voters came out and crossed the aisle and voted for Democrats.”
Listen at 8:19
- Rebecca Katzon Democratic down-ballot candidatesPositive9:39
Strong down-ballot candidates can encourage voters to participate repeatedly.
“If we can keep getting... really good candidates up and down the ticket, give everyone something to vote for, they will keep coming back.”
Listen at 9:39
Quality candidates across the ticket improve Democratic electoral performance.
“So just having quality candidates up and down the ticket makes a difference.”
Listen at 11:14
The number of Trump voters who voted Democratic will be unexpectedly high.
“I think the number is going to be shockingly high.”
Listen at 12:38
Donald Trump has been a failed president.
“He is a failure as a president.”
Listen at 14:16
Donald Trump could not immediately lower prices or end the war.
“He cannot lower your prices on day one. He cannot end the war on day one.”
Listen at 14:20
At least 15% of Latino Trump voters switched to Democrats in 2026.
“At least around 15 percent of Latinos who had voted for Donald Trump switch sides.”
Listen at 18:03
Democratic candidates maintained unusually disciplined messaging on costs and corruption.
“They were as disciplined as I've ever seen a diverse set of candidates in a diverse set of states about the importance of lowering costs and taking on corruption.”
Listen at 23:03
Texas represented Democrats’ largest strategic opportunity in many years.
“the opportunity of Texas was the biggest opportunity the Democrats have had in forever.”
Listen at 24:01
- Rebecca Katzon Democratic electoral strategyPositive24:41
Democrats should prioritize long-term party building over immediate race totals.
“we should keep thinking about how we build for the future and not just how many races can I win this year”
Listen at 24:41
Democratic victories have weakened assumptions that the electoral map is fixed.
“a psychological barrier has been broken where the map is no longer locked in.”
Listen at 25:44
- Rebecca Katzon U.S. political and economic systemNegative27:47
The U.S. political and economic system is rigged against ordinary people.
“the system is rigged.”
Listen at 27:47
- Rebecca Katzon 2026 Democratic campaign messagingPositive28:04
Recent Democratic campaign speeches expressed post-partisan populism.
“there is a post-partisan populism to them”
Listen at 28:04
Democrats should regulate wealthy industries and prevent them from buying government influence.
“we better as well deliver on actually doing with the majority that we have in congress we got to take these people on hold them accountable regulate their industries and make sure they can't buy government for the next two years and beyond”
Listen at 29:20
Democrats risk losing support quickly if they forget the issues that elected them.
“Democrats cannot forget what got them elected because voters can change their minds real quick”
Listen at 31:21
Winning Democratic candidates overcame spending disadvantages through greater effort and communication.
“the candidates that won and that beat all the money, they worked harder than anyone else.”
Listen at 33:35
Democrats ran more advertising and possibly the best U.S. advertising campaign ever.
“I think we did have more advertising than they did. I think we had the best advertising campaign in the history of America.”
Listen at 36:06
Electability in the 2028 Democratic primary is currently unknowable.
“no one knows what electable means and no one really knows what electable is going to mean in 2028.”
Listen at 38:17
Political advertising remains effective when delivered across multiple channels.
“advertising still works. It has to be multi. multi-channel.”
Listen at 41:42
Democrats improved by tailoring messages to local political environments.
“Democrats really did figure out and they had different messages for where they were”
Listen at 43:12
Democratic candidates should emphasize affordability and adapt positions to win elections.
“Let them talk about affordability and do whatever they need to do to get elected because winners make policy and losers go home.”
Listen at 44:02
Political advertisements continue to have measurable effects.
“Ads do work. By the way, like there's a lot of literature. Ads do work.”
Listen at 44:42
Helping Texas succeed could determine the 2028 presidential election.
“The most important thing is helping Texas succeed. Because if we can take Texas off the table in 2028, it's ballgame.”
Listen at 49:17
- Rebecca Katzon Democratic support in 2028Positive50:16
Democrats must convert anti-Republican voters into affirmative Democratic supporters by 2028.
“for 28, we need them to want to vote for us.”
Listen at 50:16
Democratic leaders should promote effective communicators before the presidential primary dominates attention.
“we have all these people who are really, really good at communicating a message. We have to our leaders here in D.C., our leaders at the state parties, et cetera, even while we get lost in the in the presidential primary, have to put those people forward.”
Listen at 51:24
Abdul and James Tallarico have unusually large media reach.
“Abdul is a media entity now. James Tallarico is like bigger than NBC.”
Listen at 52:08
Democratic primary candidates should consider a non-aggression pact.
“it feels like there should be some kind of a non-aggression pact”
Listen at 53:34
Democrats should reduce Donald Trump’s approval to 32%.
“you should be focused on getting Trump to 32%”
Listen at 55:33
Republican voters say their 2028 nominee should not be associated with Trump’s administration.
“our nominee cannot be somebody. who is associated with the Trump administration.”
Listen at 55:51
“what happened on Tuesday, in my opinion, was the beginning of the end of Trump and Trumpism.”
Listen at 59:46
Democrats should avoid primary attacks that prevent post-primary unity.
“we have to not go so far as to not be able to come back together”
Listen at 1:00:13
- Rebecca Katzon 2028 Democratic primaryPositive1:00:49
A contentious Democratic primary may produce a stronger nominee.
“I don't mind a messy primary. I'm sorry. I think that's the way that we're going to get somebody good.”
Listen at 1:00:49
Polls underestimated Democratic Senate performance everywhere except Nebraska.
“Polls underestimated Democrats in every Senate seat except Nebraska.”
Listen at 1:03:14
The generic ballot average was Democratic plus nine versus a result of plus fourteen.
“The average of generic ballot was D plus 9. The result was D plus 14.”
Listen at 1:03:18
The final Latino polling estimate was 63%, roughly Biden-era support.
“Our final Latino number was 63%, which would have been Biden levels.”
Listen at 1:04:11
People should treat polls as analytical ranges rather than emotional reassurance.
“the real message to consumers is don't use polls as therapy.”
Listen at 1:05:09
Democratic governors represent nine of America’s ten largest states.
“on the state side of the top 10 states in America size wise. Nine of them are now represented by Democratic governors.”
Listen at 1:09:29
Democrats should compete nationally and treat voters respectfully.
“We got to show up everywhere. We got to treat people with respect.”
Listen at 1:09:58
Democrats need policies that improve lives and demonstrable results.
“We have to have policies that actually make their lives better. And then we have to importantly show our results.”
Listen at 1:10:03
The United States needs major political and economic reform.
“We've got to have massive reform and real change in this country.”
Listen at 1:14:10
The federal government should reduce health-care costs.
“You got to bring down the cost of health care.”
Listen at 1:16:17
Congress should use its leverage to stop proposed Medicaid cuts.
“the best way this new Congress can do that is by using every bit of leverage they have to stop these Medicaid cuts from going into effect.”
Listen at 1:16:24
About 510,000 Pennsylvanians are losing health-care access.
“510,000 Pennsylvanians. are in the process of losing access to healthcare.”
Listen at 1:16:37
Democrats are expected to win more than 40 congressional seats.
“we're going to end up winning somewhere north of about 40 seats in the Congress of the United States.”
Listen at 1:19:19
New Democratic members must legislate effectively to retain their seats.
“They've got to be able to legislate effectively that way and show their constituents that they are going to deliver for them.”
Listen at 1:20:19
Effective Democratic governance could create a durable congressional majority.
“then we can build that durable majority”
Listen at 1:20:28
Pharmacy benefit managers increase prescription drug prices.
“All they do is drive up prescription drug prices.”
Listen at 1:23:30
Health-care reform requires competition and access to a public option.
“there has to be real competition and there has to be access to that public option.”
Listen at 1:23:47
Insurers should not override medically necessary decisions by doctors.
“If a doctor says you need something, the damn insurance companies can't stop it”
Listen at 1:23:57
Pennsylvania adopted the nation’s strictest data-center guardrails.
“the strictest guardrails in the entire nation.”
Listen at 1:25:16
Pennsylvania data centers must generate clean power and fully pay their electricity costs.
“You've got to generate your own power, and a significant amount of it has to be clean energy. And you have to pay 100% of your power costs so that there's no added cost to local consumers.”
Listen at 1:25:57
No data-center project reached Pennsylvania review after Shapiro’s executive order.
“since my executive order went into effect, not a single data center project has made its way to the Commonwealth for our consideration”
Listen at 1:26:26
The federal government should test AI models before public release.
“we need a similar federal initiative a similar federal agency to test these models before they go out”
Listen at 1:27:33
AI development requires responsible federal regulation.
“We need responsible regulation at the federal level.”
Listen at 1:28:01
AI company CEOs cannot be relied upon to protect the public interest.
“We cannot rely on the CEOs of these companies to do what is in the best interest of America.”
Listen at 1:30:14
A national popular vote is a sensible presidential election system.
“I think the national popular vote makes sense.”
Listen at 1:31:15
The Department of Homeland Security, including ICE, needs a complete overhaul.
“The entire agency needs to be overhauled, ICE included.”
Listen at 1:33:16
ICE has lost community trust and should not continue unchanged.
“ICE has completely eliminated all trust with communities across America, cannot continue to exist as it is.”
Listen at 1:33:55
Democrats should reject funding that continues the Iran war.
“Absolutely. Period.”
Listen at 1:34:25
Donald Trump lacks a plan to prevent Iran from developing nuclear technology.
“Donald Trump does not have a plan to stop them from developing that nuclear technology.”
Listen at 1:35:32
Trump and Vance failed to deliver promised lower costs and fewer wars, worsening conditions.
“what Trump and Vance promised them, they've not only failed to deliver on, they've made those issues worse”
Listen at 1:37:51
The United States should end subsidized military aid to Israel.
“we should stop this military aid, the subsidized aid. I agree with that.”
Listen at 1:38:36
Israel should face the same weapons-sale conditions as other countries.
“And I think Israel should be treated as other nations are.”
Listen at 1:39:41
Congress should oversee White House construction to ensure historical appropriateness.
“Congress has to exert its power here, and it has to make sure that whatever is built there is in keeping with, I think, our standards and in keeping with something that is appropriate for that venue.”
Listen at 1:40:39
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Weekly email
State of the Pod, every Monday
The week's most-discussed names and stories from podcasts, with the moments behind them. Free, five minutes, unsubscribe in one click.