Nov 9, 2026 · 56 min
Democrats ride a historic wave as Trump tightens his grip
Bill Kristol: This Is the Trump Flailing Phase
The episode weighs whether a sweeping Democratic victory marks a lasting realignment while Trump’s weakened administration remains the center of Republican power.
- 1A 13-point national popular-vote margin and victories in Mississippi and Texas suggest Democrats may have overcome longstanding structural disadvantages.
- 2Trump’s weakened position has not diminished his control over Republican politics, including the party’s uncertain succession through 2028.
- 3Stephen Miller’s promotion, immigration detention, and allegations involving China and NVIDIA sharpen questions about executive accountability and national security.
Don't miss
Bill Kristol compares the reported Trump-NVIDIA-China allegations with Iran-Contra and calls for congressional accountability.
The brief
Bill Kristol’s unusually bullish predictions largely landed as Democrats delivered a sweeping victory, including historic wins in Mississippi and Texas that energized activists who had waited years for a breakthrough.
The hosts argue that the wave’s 13-point national popular-vote margin overwhelmed Republican structural advantages and may signal Democrats have become the country’s majority party.
Trump remains central despite the defeat: his reluctance to endorse J.D. Vance, refusal to retreat from corruption allegations, and influence over possible successors keep 2028 unsettled.
Stephen Miller’s promotion is framed less as a policy pivot than an effort to discipline a weakened administration, even as immigration arrests and detention of nonviolent asylum seekers continue.
The episode’s sharpest turn comes with allegations involving NVIDIA chief Jensen Huang, China, and senior officials—claims Kristol says demand congressional briefings, hearings, and accountability.
The hosts close on the Democratic opening: press for detainee releases, pursue oversight, and avoid letting Trump’s immigration rhetoric obscure the administration’s conduct.
What was said on this episode
30 statements · 10 positive · 18 negative · 1 mixed · 1 neutral
“it is bigger”
Listen at 1:48
Democrats will achieve a very large wave election victory.
“I think it's going to be a very big blue wave.”
Listen at 2:31
Democrats will gain at least roughly 30 House seats.
“The House will be plus 30.”
Listen at 2:36
Democrats will gain more Senate and House seats than in 2006.
“I think they will actually pick up more Senate seats and probably more House seats actually than 06”
Listen at 2:42
The Democratic Senate total will be closer to 55 seats.
“I think at this point, we're closer to, I'm closer to 55”
Listen at 3:49
People should not bet on political betting markets.
“You shouldn't bet on the betting markets on politics anyway.”
Listen at 5:18
Scott Colom ran an admirable Senate campaign in Mississippi.
“he ran such an admirable campaign”
Listen at 6:09
Late voter movement probably amplified the Democratic wave.
“there probably was a late break, especially in the states that were already breaking”
Listen at 12:31
The 13-point national popular-vote margin was the largest in the modern era.
“Which is massive. It's so much the largest in the modern era.”
Listen at 12:56
Democrats are temporarily the country’s majority party.
“the Democrats are now, at least for a while, the majority party in the country”
Listen at 13:23
Republicans are unlikely to regain the Senate before 2032.
“It's very hard to see the Republicans getting the Senate back until 2032.”
Listen at 14:56
Donald Trump will avoid endorsing early and manipulate Republican successors.
“he's going to not endorse anyone. He's going to toy with them all.”
Listen at 20:01
Trump will remain central to Republican politics through 2028.
“make himself at least the master of ceremonies and the game show host here for... all the way into 2028.”
Listen at 20:16
Trump’s popularity will not increase.
“he's not going to get more popular”
Listen at 20:27
Trump’s refusal to retreat on corruption is his greatest vulnerability.
“corruption, he won't back on. And that's his greatest vulnerability at this point”
Listen at 25:20
The 2028 Republican nominee probably will not come from Trump’s administration.
“I would bet a fair amount on the nominee not coming from the Trump administration”
Listen at 26:04
Trump is not a president who makes immigration deals.
“He's not a deal-making president.”
Listen at 28:28
Democrats should avoid negotiating an immigration deal with Trump.
“They should not get into some stupid negotiation with Trump.”
Listen at 29:31
Internal defections and institutional resistance can emerge in a failing administration.
“that stuff can start to happen in a flailing and failing administration”
Listen at 31:01
Trump will increasingly surround himself with loyalists.
“Trump is going to want to have the loyalists around by the end.”
Listen at 32:29
Authorities should not detain people without violent criminal histories.
“there's absolutely no reason that we should be detaining a single person who does not have a violent criminal history”
Listen at 35:44
Democrats should pass legislation releasing nonviolent immigration detainees.
“The Democrats should... ask that. They shouldn't just ask it. They should pass it”
Listen at 36:43
Pete Hegseth will lose an impeachment vote.
“I actually think he will.”
Listen at 39:30
Democrats should promptly force an impeachment vote on Hegseth.
“Democrats should insist on the vote one way or the other as soon as possible.”
Listen at 39:45
Trump will remove Pete Hegseth from defense secretary.
“I kind of think he'll do it”
Listen at 42:21
Congressional Democrats should aggressively demand intelligence briefings on NVIDIA allegations.
“I hope they are extremely aggressive and insisting on private briefings”
Listen at 45:23
Trump’s intervention favored Chinese access to advanced AI chips.
“he personally intervenes to make it happen. Why? Because he doesn't care, because he does want the Chinese to get there.”
Listen at 47:18
Right-wing China hawks have been performative rather than substantive.
“all the China hawks and the right are fake”
Listen at 50:17
The alleged Trump-China AI-chip scandal is more serious than Iran-Contra.
“This is more serious than Iran-Contra.”
Listen at 51:40
The Trump-China AI-chip scandal will become a major story this week.
“I do think it blows up. in a big way this week.”
Listen at 53:55
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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