Sep 18, 2026 · 1h 30m
Listen from 46:14
Listen at 46:14
Democrats see a midterm opening as Trump’s record strains
Will the Blue Wave Be Bigger Than 2018?
The episode tests whether Democratic gains reflect a durable backlash or an overly optimistic reading of uneven races and voter concerns.
- 1Democrats benefit from improving national polling, Republican weakness among independents, and potentially depressed conservative turnout.
- 2Closer races in Minnesota and New Hampshire warn that favorable national conditions may not translate uniformly across states.
- 3Dan Osborn’s independent campaign frames working-class economic frustration outside automatic alignment with either major party.
Don't miss
Dan Osborn explains how an independent Nebraska Senate campaign seeks working-class voters without promising to caucus automatically with either party.
The brief
The hosts argue that Trump’s promises of a golden age are colliding with rising costs, trade conflicts, and economic consequences voters increasingly experience directly.
Democrats appear better positioned for the midterms as generic-ballot numbers improve, Republicans lose ground with independents, and rural disillusionment threatens turnout.
Minnesota and New Hampshire complicate the blue-wave case, showing how candidate strength, polling quality, and state-level dynamics can resist national trends.
The conversation widens to mail-in voting, conservative judicial power, AI safety, and Trump’s fight over the Kennedy Center, linking policy disputes to institutional control.
Dan Osborn tells Jon Favreau why his Nebraska campaign targets working-class voters while rejecting automatic allegiance to either party, including on immigration and healthcare.
What was said on this episode
20 statements · 9 positive · 10 negative · 1 neutral
Trump broke his campaign promises to lower prices and avoid new wars.
“The reason people are pissed is that he broke the 2 core promises of his campaign. Lowering prices, no more wars.”
Listen at 7:44
Higher interest rates raise borrowing costs and reduce housing supply.
“It hits housing first. It's going to lock more people into their mortgages, going to lower the amount of supply on the market. It is going to make it more expensive to buy cars, to use your credit cards.”
Listen at 11:44
Oil prices will worsen and not decline before 2027 at the earliest.
“as bad as it is in the coming months, it is only going to get worse, and it is not expected to go down until 2027 at the earliest.”
Listen at 15:08
The 2026 election could produce a larger Democratic wave than 2018.
“this could end up being an even bigger blue wave than 2018.”
Listen at 22:59
Trump’s approval among independents has fallen to 27%.
“Trump's approval rating among independents was in the mid to low 40s. Today, in that New York Times poll you referenced, it's at 27.”
Listen at 23:49
Country-of-origin labeling would cost more than its market benefits.
“country of origin labeling will do nothing. The Department of Agriculture studied it. It costs more than it actually benefits the market.”
Listen at 26:05
The political environment favors a Democratic Senate victory in New Hampshire.
“The political environment suggests that a Democrat should win”
Listen at 30:25
Samuel Alito may retire during the lame-duck period.
“I think there's a chance that Alito retires in the lame duck.”
Listen at 35:28
Conservative organizing offers progressives a strategic template for the next decade.
“it can be a strategy or at least a template for how the left can think about power and agenda items and goals in the coming 2 to 10 years.”
Listen at 37:07
Most voters support regulating artificial intelligence.
“Overwhelmingly, voters believe that AI should be regulated”
Listen at 50:34
Americans favor slowing AI development over accelerating it by 34 to 1.
“The number of Americans who in a YouGov poll who believe that AI needs to be slowed down versus the people who think it should be sped up is 34 to 1.”
Listen at 50:59
Democrats should campaign on AI regulation, especially data centers.
“Democrats should talk about it. And I think it's easiest and best right now in the short term where you're running in the campaign to focus on data centers”
Listen at 51:17
Effective AI policy requires bipartisan support.
“you need buy-in on both sides of the aisle”
Listen at 52:53
China regulates artificial intelligence more effectively than the United States.
“the Chinese are much better at regulation than we are.”
Listen at 57:35
U.S. courts have been ineffective at preventing Trump’s institutional changes.
“the courts seem very flat-footed in being able to prevent any of this.”
Listen at 1:00:14
Tyson and JBS exploit labor while generating record profits for shareholders.
“my guess would be Tyson, JBS, the big meatpackers that exploit labor, pay them next to nothing, enrich themselves every single quarter, the record profits for their stockholders.”
Listen at 1:18:21
Dan Osborn would vote to reverse Medicaid cuts in Trump’s tax law.
“Yeah, definitely. We have a lot of work to do reversing things in that act.”
Listen at 1:21:45
CVS and UnitedHealth control healthcare vertically while denying claims and earning record profits.
“You have CVS and UnitedHealth that have vertically integrated the entire healthcare system. They own every step of the process while denying us our care and our claims. And they continue to post record profits quarter after quarter.”
Listen at 1:22:56
CVS and UnitedHealth should face restrictions on their current operations.
“we shouldn't, allow these companies to operate the way they do.”
Listen at 1:23:10
Everyone should have access to affordable healthcare.
“everybody deserves to have access to affordable healthcare.”
Listen at 1:27:03
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
