Sep 3, 2026 · 32 min
Dillian bets against bond pessimism as AI debt reshapes markets
“I’m Insanely Bullish on Bonds” | Jared Dillian on Copper, Bonds, Semis, and The Awesome Portfolio
The episode tests whether today’s fears about deficits, inflation, and AI-driven borrowing have created opportunity in bonds or a broader financial vulnerability.
- 1Jared Dillian sees extreme pessimism and weakening labor indicators creating an opportunity in long-duration government bonds.
- 2AI investment may support growth, but debt-funded infrastructure raises questions about yields, obsolescence, and leverage across markets.
- 3Dillian’s Awesome Portfolio favors equal exposure to stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate over concentrated equity risk.
Don't miss
Dillian makes the case that the market’s consensus fear of deficits and bond supply may itself be the opportunity in long-duration government bonds.
The brief
Jared Dillian argues that dire forecasts about deficits, inflation, and government bond supply have become so dominant that long-duration bonds now look mispriced.
AI infrastructure complicates the bond case: hyperscalers are borrowing heavily to expand capacity, while Dillian questions whether debt-funded technology can justify long-lived assets.
The conversation moves from crowded semiconductor exposure and Nvidia and Broadcom positioning to leveraged liquidations, with Dillian warning that one forced unwind does not remove systemic leverage.
Dillian sees no immediate S&P 500 crash signal, but points to shifting leadership across banks, healthcare, energy, industrials, copper, and gold as AI enthusiasm broadens.
His alternative is The Awesome Portfolio, an equal-weighted mix of stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate designed to reduce volatility and drawdowns.
What was said on this episode
24 statements · 11 positive · 11 negative · 2 mixed
Inflation is currently moderate and continues declining.
“inflation is not that high. It's come down quite a bit in the last couple of months. It continues to come down.”
Listen at 1:04
The economy appears to be entering a growth slowdown.
“it looks like we are entering a slowdown in growth”
Listen at 2:04
Jared Dillian is extremely bullish on the bond market.
“I am not worried about the bond market at all. I'm insanely bullish.”
Listen at 2:57
Current 30-year and 10-year yields offer exceptional value.
“five point whatever on, you know, five, two, five, three on 30 years is an incredible deal. I think four, seven on tens is an incredible deal.”
Listen at 3:04
Dillian has shifted substantial personal capital into bonds for three-to-five years.
“I personally have moved a huge portion of my money into bonds in the last month. And this is a very long-term trade for me. I'll hold this for three to five years”
Listen at 3:14
Semiconductors, healthcare, and financials appear to be topping.
“it looks to me like semis Healthcare and financials are topping right now.”
Listen at 8:38
Intel and Oracle appear to be forming market bottoms.
“intel looks like it's bottoming um oracle looks like it's bottoming”
Listen at 9:18
Retail investors holding semiconductor stocks probably will not sell at highs.
“they're probably not going to sell at the highs.”
Listen at 10:39
The failure of a leveraged player usually marks a market bottom.
“anytime you have a leverage player that goes tu um that that is that usually marks a bottom”
Listen at 13:35
Another highly leveraged fund failure is likely within coming months.
“My guess is there's another situational awareness coming in the months down the line. There's too much leverage in the system.”
Listen at 15:19
The S&P 500 is unlikely to crash over the next month.
“there's nothing in the S&P chart that leads me to believe we're going to crash tomorrow, next week, next month.”
Listen at 16:14
Dillian is least bullish on copper among major metals.
“out of all the metals i am least bullish on copper”
Listen at 17:29
Gold might retest 4,000, but Dillian doubts that outcome.
“We might retest 4,000. I kind of doubt it.”
Listen at 18:33
Dillian is cautiously bullish on gold.
“I'm cautiously bullish here.”
Listen at 18:47
A severely negative jobs report would reverse the gold trade.
“if we get a super ugly jobs print like negative 50 000 negative 100 000 something like that this whole trade is going to reverse”
Listen at 19:12
Investors should buy a stock immediately upon first hearing about it, then research it.
“The first time you hear about something, you should buy the stock. And then you do your research”
Listen at 22:11
Dillian believes AI is a bubble.
“I do i do i'm not i'm not bashful to say that i do”
Listen at 23:52
Debt leverage in AI technology financing can cause serious problems.
“the leverage is what's get people into trouble”
Listen at 24:44
An equal allocation across stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate reduces portfolio volatility.
“you're diversified across asset classes stocks bonds gold cash and real estate in equal proportions”
Listen at 27:29
The Awesome Portfolio historically halves volatility and limits annual drawdowns versus the S&P 500.
“your volatility is cut in half in the worst drawdown that has ever happened with this portfolio is down 12 whereas about 40 for the s p 500 in a calendar year”
Listen at 27:46
Dillian remains bearish on private credit and alternative investments.
“I'm still bearish.”
Listen at 29:24
An AI unwind would cause private credit to unwind, and vice versa.
“if AI unwinds, private credit will also or vice versa”
Listen at 29:37
Private-market assets remain in a bear market and have not bottomed.
“a bear market in the privates. It's just going to take a much longer time to play out, but we have not found the bottom yet. We haven't.”
Listen at 30:22
Current markets resemble the dot-com bubble, but many companies now have profits.
“there are a lot of analogs to the dot-com bubble 25 years ago, 26 years ago. But the one thing that's different is there are profits”
Listen at 31:27
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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