Oct 12, 2026 · 57 min
Value investor says the bull market has room to run
Top Performing Value Investor Explains Why the Market Isn’t Overvalued and Hasn’t Hit the Blowoff Top Phase | Charles Lemonides | ValueWorks LLC
Charles Lemonides presents a flexible value framework for navigating expensive markets, AI-driven growth, cyclical risk, and selective short opportunities.
- 1Lemonides argues strong earnings and AI investment may support equities despite elevated valuations and higher interest rates.
- 2His value strategy targets businesses trading below intrinsic worth, including growth companies such as Micron and selected semiconductor opportunities.
- 3The portfolio combines energy, rideshare, industrial, and offshore themes with security-specific shorts designed to offset long positions.
Don't miss
Lemonides makes the case that a mature bull market can still have room to run because earnings growth and AI investment remain supportive.
The brief
Charles Lemonides of ValueWorks argues that an extended bull market and elevated valuations do not automatically signal an imminent blowoff, especially while earnings remain supportive.
His value discipline is broader than buying low-multiple companies: it means purchasing assets below intrinsic worth, including growth businesses temporarily priced like traditional value stocks.
Micron anchors the semiconductor discussion, while Intel represents a longer-term case built around CPUs, foundry capacity, and persistent demand despite cyclical risks.
The portfolio spreads exposure across rideshare, energy, offshore infrastructure, and industrials, using position tiers so no single theme must carry the strategy.
Lemonides also explains security-specific shorts, including Texas Pacific Land and selected retailers, as a way to challenge demanding valuations and offset long positions.
What was said on this episode
54 statements · 38 positive · 9 negative · 1 mixed · 6 neutral
The bull market has not yet reached its upside blowoff phase.
“the best returns are earned in the final years of a bull market. Bull markets have massive blowups to the upside before the downside happens. And I don't think we've seen that liftoff. quite yet in this cycle.”
Listen at 0:17
The market is fully valued but not necessarily overvalued.
“The market is not necessarily overvalued, but it is an awful lot more fully valued than it once was.”
Listen at 1:16
The bull market has not necessarily reached its end.
“there's no reason to believe that the clock has struck.”
Listen at 2:09
The bull market could continue for another two to five years.
“it could last another two, four years, five years, who knows?”
Listen at 2:43
The economic and market cycles can continue.
“this economic cycle can continue and this market cycle can continue.”
Listen at 3:17
Economic growth is unlikely to slow over the next six months.
“there's nothing to indicate the growth will slow down six months out from now either.”
Listen at 3:43
Overall market valuations are not excessively high.
“Valuations are totally not overblown.”
Listen at 4:05
Data-center and chip investment is driving economic growth.
“the investment side of the picture, which is the data centers and the chip purchases, are driving growth”
Listen at 5:21
Data-center-related growth is unlikely to slow soon.
“we don't think it's going to slow down anytime soon.”
Listen at 6:22
Value investing means buying assets below their intrinsic worth.
“value investing means getting a dollar's worth of assets for 50 cents”
Listen at 7:25
Micron is no longer attractive to buy at its current price.
“we're no longer excited about buying it at those prices”
Listen at 8:59
Micron earnings are likely to remain strong for another couple years.
“We think the earnings are likely to be there for another couple of years”
Listen at 10:34
Micron remains a core portfolio holding.
“It's still a core holding for us.”
Listen at 10:52
Intel remains inexpensive despite having quadrupled.
“I think Intel might be one of them. I mean, it has gone up 4x, but it's still very cheap by all the metrics also.”
Listen at 11:14
Intel has foundry capacity and is increasing production.
“Intel has it and is ramping it.”
Listen at 12:50
Intel has substantial upside potential from foundry improvements.
“we think the torque to the upside is pretty dramatic.”
Listen at 13:16
The portfolio reduces sector exposure after a major run-up.
“when we have 40 exposure to a sector we're scaling it back we're not adding to it”
Listen at 18:23
Selected energy stocks offer attractive investment opportunities.
“there's a good story to be had in those energy names.”
Listen at 19:00
Lyft trades at roughly one-quarter of Uber’s valuation.
“We're Long Lift, which is second to Uber in terms of valuation, but it's roughly a quarter of Uber's valuation.”
Listen at 19:45
Instacart trades at roughly one-quarter of DoorDash’s valuation.
“And we're along Instacart, which is perceived as second to DoorDash. And again, it's trading at one quarter of the valuation.”
Listen at 19:53
Lyft has grown consistently while remaining cash-flow positive.
“Lyft has grown consistently and been cash flow positive consistently.”
Listen at 20:35
Instacart has grown consistently with much higher margins than DoorDash.
“Instacart has grown consistently and had better margins than DoorDash by a lot.”
Listen at 20:42
Scale is not decisive in rideshare businesses such as Lyft.
“I don't think scale is everything in. in Lyft, in rideshare”
Listen at 21:35
Rivian vehicles will be largely self-driving within three years.
“the rivians three years from now we're going to be pretty darn fully self-driving”
Listen at 23:40
Driverless vehicles will become ubiquitous.
“driverless vehicles are going to be ubiquitous.”
Listen at 24:35
Driverless vehicle availability will not be the rideshare bottleneck.
“That's not where the bottleneck is going to be, I don't think.”
Listen at 24:38
Self-driving technology will become commoditized.
“self-driving technology is going to be a commodity product.”
Listen at 25:18
Investor fatigue around Lyft and related stocks will end within two to five years.
“I think it'll end in the next two to five years.”
Listen at 28:40
Selected portfolio names could deliver two-to-four-times returns over coming years.
“hopefully some other names give it to me in the other years.”
Listen at 29:05
Domestic independent E&P companies offer good value.
“Where I think there's good value are the domestic independent E&Ps.”
Listen at 30:19
Chord trades at roughly three-to-four times expected forward cash flow.
“I specifically like Cord, which is an $8 billion. valuation. And I think it's at three, four times what we think will be cash flow going forward”
Listen at 30:25
UNIT is expected to generate $75 million cash flow and hold $100 million net cash.
“I think they're going to generate $75 million worth of cash flow over the next year, and they've got $100 million of net cash.”
Listen at 30:49
Valaris is cheap relative to rig replacement cost and next-year cash flow.
“I like Valeris a lot. It's very cheap based on the replacement cost of those rigs. and probably next year's cash flow”
Listen at 31:47
Tidewater’s fleet would cost roughly twice its current price to rebuild.
“it would cost you twice the price to rebuild their fleet of ships”
Listen at 32:12
Tidewater’s fleet will generate substantial cash flow amid tight supply and demand.
“That fleet of ships is going to generate massive cash flows because supply and demand has gotten completely tight.”
Listen at 32:26
Offshore oil production has been growing for a long time.
“offshore is a growing business for a long, long time.”
Listen at 33:55
Offshore production growth may continue for another five to ten years.
“I think it's got another five, 10 years to run.”
Listen at 34:32
Portfolio themes rarely perform strongly simultaneously.
“we'll rarely have everything hitting at the same time.”
Listen at 36:46
The portfolio is short Texas Pacific Land at a $20–25 billion valuation.
“We're short a company called Texas Pacific Land. 20, 25 billion dollar.”
Listen at 38:02
Texas Pacific Land’s acreage is worth approximately $2.5 billion.
“those million acres are worth something like twenty five hundred dollars an acre, which makes those acres worth something like two and a half billion dollars.”
Listen at 38:27
Mesabi Trust is one of Lemonides’s preferred investments.
“one of my favorite investments is mesabi trust”
Listen at 42:05
Mesabi Trust currently yields approximately 10–12%.
“Right now, the yield on the thing is something like 10%, 12%”
Listen at 43:19
Normalized iron-ore prices matter more than forecasts when valuing commodity businesses.
“we'll care more about where the valuation is relative to normalized iron ore prices.”
Listen at 47:09
Casey’s elevated valuation and growth profile will not persist.
“that's just not going to last.”
Listen at 48:44
U.S. gas stations with pizza outlets have limited growth potential.
“there's going to be a limited amount of growth. of building new gas stations with pizza places on them in the United States of America. That's just not a growth business.”
Listen at 49:47
Walmart is vulnerable because valuation and growth expectations are excessive.
“we've been short um Walmart on valuation and growth prospects and an overdone enthusiasm.”
Listen at 50:44
Competition in grocery retail is extremely intense.
“the competition in grocery is just brutal”
Listen at 51:45
The current market advance is driven by investment rather than consumers.
“it's not a consumer-led advance. It's an investment-led advance.”
Listen at 52:38
Honeywell offers Quantinuum exposure at no apparent cost and fair valuation.
“we're getting at that stock for nothing and we're getting the parent company at very, very fair prices.”
Listen at 53:52
Caterpillar is expensive at 40 times earnings and not at trough earnings.
“we're short Caterpillar. Like, I'm sorry, the stock's at 40 times, they may not be peak earnings, but they ain't trough earnings.”
Listen at 54:02
Caterpillar’s growth may last only three or four years despite massive multiples.
“it's probably more like three or four years and you're trading at massive multiples.”
Listen at 54:24
Boeing is very cheaply valued.
“the valuation is super cheap there, too.”
Listen at 54:51
Boeing could triple if new management improves the company.
“if new management can make it sing, you're going to get a triple out of the stock.”
Listen at 55:18
Orsted is one of Lemonides’s favorite holdings.
“one of our favorite holdings is orsted”
Listen at 55:46
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.