Oct 29, 2026 · 1h 18m
Early voting complicates the midterm wave forecast
8: What South Carolina and the Early Vote Tell Us About the Midterms
The episode tests whether polling, early-vote patterns, and an unexpectedly competitive South Carolina race point to a Democratic wave or misleading signals.
- 1Flipper gives Democrats a strong Senate advantage, but the hosts weigh that forecast against a more uncertain national environment.
- 2South Carolina and other underpolled races could reveal whether Democrats are outperforming expectations in traditionally Republican territory.
- 3Early-vote data offers useful context but cannot cleanly identify turnout, party support, or the eventual election result.
Don't miss
The hosts dissect a Maine poll whose registered-voter and likely-voter results diverge so sharply that Nate Silver calls the methodology incoherent.
The brief
Flipper gives Democrats roughly a 75% chance of winning the Senate and a 95% chance of winning the House, but the hosts question why the model feels more optimistic than Democrats do.
South Carolina becomes the episode’s sharpest test: an unexpectedly competitive race raises questions about candidate quality, Donald Trump’s influence, regional voting, and a possible Democratic overperformance.
The hosts argue that underpolled contests in states including Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Carolina could matter more than the familiar battleground map suggests.
A Marist poll in Maine draws unusually strong criticism because its registered-voter and likely-voter results diverge sharply, exposing the risks of incoherent samples and opaque screens.
Early voting provides clues about participation but not a simple partisan verdict, especially as voting habits change and geographic or registration patterns become harder to interpret.
The episode closes by connecting turnout, undecided voters, gender, candidate quality, and voting access to the larger question of how much election models can see.
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