Oct 28, 2026 · 1h 13m
Early voting puts Senate control and party futures in play
Who’s Winning the Early Vote? Midterm Update
The episode treats turnout, competitive Senate races, and candidate credibility as decisions with consequences lasting beyond Election Day.
- 1Texas early-vote patterns show Republicans improving while independent voters remain difficult to classify.
- 2Prediction markets frame Senate contests in Texas, Florida, and South Carolina as unusually fluid.
- 3Michael La Rosa argues that Democratic evasions on extremism could drive cross-party opposition to Abdul El-Sayed.
Don't miss
Michael La Rosa explains why he is supporting Republican Mike Rogers despite remaining committed to Democratic victories generally.
The brief
Ruthless opens with Texas early-vote numbers and a broader warning: midterms are not merely a referendum, because six-year Senate terms can reshape policy and party power.
The hosts examine Democratic candidates’ evasions on Cuba, government assistance, and extremist movements, arguing that vague answers can conceal unpopular positions rather than resolve them.
Texas voting data, party-history classifications, and Kalshi markets become the episode’s dashboard for assessing momentum across Senate races in Texas, Florida, and South Carolina.
The sharpest turn comes when Michael La Rosa, a former Biden administration official, explains why he supports Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan.
La Rosa says El-Sayed’s associations and refusal to condemn extremist rhetoric create a credibility problem, while the hosts connect that dissent to broader Democratic unease.
What was said on this episode
32 statements · 13 positive · 14 negative · 1 mixed · 4 neutral
Texas is central to determining the election outcome.
“The center of the universe in terms of the outcome of this election. is Texas.”
Listen at 0:16
Republicans need substantially more early turnout in Texas.
“The good news is it's better than where it was. The bad news is we need a heck of a lot more Republicans in Texas to turn out early and bank their votes.”
Listen at 0:22
The DSA has taken over much of the Democratic Party.
“the dsa has taken over the democrat party in many ways”
Listen at 5:34
Supporting government assistance for noncitizens is disqualifying in many red states.
“it's been a disqualifier in most red states like Iowa for a better part of a decade in this country that people running in any sort of swing, you know, battleground state would would clearly define that as something that. They can't support.”
Listen at 9:55
Democrats will quickly redirect taxpayer resources toward new voters if empowered.
“It doesn't take like much time at all for them to just start siphoning all your taxpayer resources to a new set of, quote, voters that they want.”
Listen at 10:48
Democratic candidates are trying to avoid scrutiny until voting ends.
“they're just trying to get to the finish line before The average voter can look and say, my God, this is a horrible candidate who has absolutely zero of my values.”
Listen at 11:56
Abdul El-Sayed is a left-wing Islamic extremist Marxist.
“he is just this left-wing Islamic extremist Marxist”
Listen at 15:30
Republicans have been closing Texas’s early-vote gap.
“it's been a march for Republicans to close the gap.”
Listen at 20:04
The modeled Republican early-vote advantage likely overstates reality.
“I expect that to be a little bit rosier than what reality is for Republicans right now in the state.”
Listen at 20:51
Republicans need more early voting in Texas.
“we need a heck of a lot more Republicans in Texas to turn out early and bank their votes.”
Listen at 21:01
A Republican early-vote advantage near ten points would be acceptable.
“i think if you finish closer to 10 yeah in the advantage you feel okay.”
Listen at 22:07
Trump previously held a 13.5% Texas early-ballot lead.
“Trump had 13.5% lead based on early ballots that were returned in mail ballots.”
Listen at 22:50
Texas early voting shifted from tied to a six-point Republican advantage.
“It went from a dead heat last week at this time to Republicans plus six right now.”
Listen at 23:07
Republicans should expect to lose independent voters in 2026.
“Your anticipation of like splitting independents. In a year like 2026, it's basically zero. You're going to lose it.”
Listen at 24:01
Kalshi prediction markets provide a rough sentiment check.
“it's basically in my, in my mind, it's like a vibe check.”
Listen at 25:02
Kalshi markets react to campaign information faster than polling.
“you very quickly see movement in the prediction markets here on Calci. Far quicker than you can with polling”
Listen at 25:23
Florida’s Senate race narrowed from 7.7 points to seven points.
“that's a 7.7, nearly eight point race. It's now trimmed a little bit down to seven.”
Listen at 26:37
Lindsey Graham leads the South Carolina Senate race by three points.
“Now it's at three points for Graham.”
Listen at 30:00
A candidate consistently polling at 49% can reach over 50%.
“what gives me a lot of hope there is that you can close that deal to get over 50 if you're at 49 consistently on somebody like her.”
Listen at 30:49
Republicans are expected to win the South Carolina Senate race.
“an awful lot of people are going to be surprised if Republicans don't win that race.”
Listen at 31:01
The elected senators will serve until 2032.
“whoever is elected here is going to be there until 2032”
Listen at 32:50
Republican losses in listed Senate states would be catastrophic for the party.
“if Republicans were to lose South Carolina or Mississippi or Texas or Kansas. You're in catastrophic territory.”
Listen at 32:54
Republicans would permanently lose Maine if Susan Collins does not return.
“you lose Maine forever. Goodbye. If Susan Collins doesn't come back, that's not – you're never getting Maine back.”
Listen at 33:56
The election will significantly affect party majorities and party identities.
“the longer tale of what voters decide next Tuesday will have dramatic implications, both in terms of your ability to rebuild majorities, but really importantly, what these parties are going to look like.”
Listen at 34:35
The ETF included Chinese companies designated as military-linked by Defense Department.
“a fund whose positions include Chinese companies that the Defense Department has designated as Chinese military.”
Listen at 36:50
Winning a statewide swing battleground would be a major DSA victory.
“statewide swing battleground is like sort of like that's a big scalp for the dsa”
Listen at 50:23
The DSA’s Senate strategy could affect other incumbents and open seats.
“in the senate races i do in other um other incumbents and other open seats i do i see what they're trying to do”
Listen at 50:37
Abdul El-Sayed excused the murder or attempted murder of children.
“he was excusing murder of children, attempted murder of children.”
Listen at 59:00
Framing a religion, race, or gender as “they/them” is unpopular with Americans.
“when you are boxing a religion or a race or a gender. into something that you call they them, that's not exactly a resonant message within the American populace.”
Listen at 1:04:40
Mike Rogers needs only modest support from Black or Jewish constituencies to affect the race.
“he doesn't have to like mike rogers doesn't have to pick off that much of either of those constituencies for it to have an impact”
Listen at 1:07:51
Democratic support for Mike Rogers exists as quiet energy.
“It's what I would call it's a quiet energy.”
Listen at 1:08:39
El-Sayed’s evasive answers may affect election results.
“Maybe that's going to show up on elections.”
Listen at 1:10:12
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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