Nov 3, 2026 · 40 min
Election Day tests Trump’s grip on Republicans
238. Polls Open - Is America Done with Trump?
The episode examines whether voters are rejecting MAGA politics, while delayed counts and misinformation could shape the aftermath.
- 1The election serves as a referendum on Trump, with turnout tactics and Israel policy potentially reshaping key races.
- 2Delayed mail-ballot counts could fuel disputes and misinformation before the final results become clear.
- 3A Republican reckoning could elevate non-MAGA figures such as Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, or Glenn Youngkin.
Don't miss
The hosts explain how differing state rules for counting mail ballots could delay results and create an opening for misinformation.
The brief
Katty Kay and Anthony Scaramucci frame Election Day as a referendum on Donald Trump, then test that premise against House and Senate races.
Trump’s Israel policy, turnout tactics, polling-place closures, and campaign style become clues to whether Republican voters remain aligned with MAGA.
The hosts ask whether MAGA has improved voters’ lives and whether dissatisfaction signals a broader shift in confidence toward Trump and the Republican Party.
Different state rules for processing mail ballots could delay results, creating a volatile window for disputes over election administration and misinformation.
The conversation ends with a possible Republican succession list, including Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Glenn Youngkin, Liz Cheney, and Adam Kinzinger.
What was said on this episode
28 statements · 9 positive · 15 negative · 1 mixed · 3 neutral
Israel’s favorability in the United States has declined sharply since October 7 and the Gaza attacks.
“we've seen Israel's favorability in the US decline precipitously since the attacks of October the 7th and the attacks on Gaza after that.”
Listen at 4:21
Young Americans increasingly oppose longstanding U.S. assistance to Israel.
“particularly amongst young Americans. uh less enthusiasm for america helping israel in the way that it has done over the decades”
Listen at 4:31
Younger Americans’ declining support makes reduced U.S. support for Israel inevitable.
“the support for Israel is not there anymore amongst younger Americans, so it was going to happen.”
Listen at 6:10
Trump’s Israel announcement was intended as an electoral maneuver in Michigan.
“I think he was trying to make a statement here on Election Day. I think that was a play in Michigan.”
Listen at 6:22
Voter turnout, especially early voting, has been very high.
“The numbers of the turnout, which are very high, and particularly in the early voting, as far as we can tell, turnout has been very high”
Listen at 8:13
Election-access restrictions can increase voters’ determination to participate.
“sometimes when they play these dirty tricks, it makes people even more determined to go and vote.”
Listen at 8:31
Trump’s private-sector renovation message is outdated and no longer resonates.
“But that messaging is dated, Caddy. That messaging is not resonating.”
Listen at 11:15
Trump’s recent campaign schedule reflects severe burnout.
“That is aggressive burnout, 20-plus campaign stops in 15, 16 days.”
Listen at 12:22
A Husted loss would be partly attributable to Trump.
“if somebody like Husted, who I predict ends up, or Husted, you say, if he ends up losing tonight, some of it will be related to Donald Trump.”
Listen at 12:59
A Husted victory would likely result from his campaign rather than Trump.
“If he wins, which I think is not likely, it won't be related to Donald Trump. It'll be related to the miracle of him and his campaign.”
Listen at 13:09
Trump provided little marginal campaign help to candidates recently.
“So I think Trump on the margin helped very few candidates on the stump. over the last three weeks.”
Listen at 13:18
The election is primarily being driven by prices.
“This really is an election that is driven by prices.”
Listen at 15:01
High prices are currently damaging Trump politically.
“that is what is doing Donald Trump in right now.”
Listen at 15:09
Some MAGA supporters have abandoned Trump and may not return.
“The MAGA person has left the building. And they're maybe never coming back.”
Listen at 15:58
Most MAGA supporters currently feel worse off than two years ago.
“I think even most MAGA people at this point would say they are worse off today than they were two years ago.”
Listen at 17:01
The election will bring back Republican-first voters distinct from Trump-first voters.
“I think this election is going to see the return of that long lost species, the actual Republican voter who is Republican first, not Trump first.”
Listen at 17:12
Continued poor economic delivery could make this election the beginning of MAGA’s end.
“unless the MAGA experiment delivers for people's daily lives more than it is doing today, then I think we could be, this election could mark the beginning of the end of MAGA, end of the MAGA experiment.”
Listen at 18:07
The Democrats will take control of the House.
“Yes, I would say the Democrats are going to take the House.”
Listen at 18:57
A political mood shift could change how the world views America.
“don't underestimate the power of that vibe shift, because I think that could make a difference, certainly in how the world sees America”
Listen at 20:05
Trump has made state and local election authorities fear federal interference.
“I think he has sufficiently scared the state and local authorities to thinking that the federal government is going to manipulate and or meddle in the elections”
Listen at 23:15
Trump knows he is losing the election.
“And so he knows that he's losing. He just knows. He's not stupid. We both know that he knows.”
Listen at 23:45
Mary Peltola will become senator if she wins the Alaska race.
“Mary Peltolda will be the senator if she wins.”
Listen at 24:46
Mary Peltola will win despite the combined Sullivan vote.
“she's going to win.”
Listen at 24:58
Susan Collins will win reelection.
“I actually do think she'll make it.”
Listen at 31:02
A more charismatic Democratic candidate might have defeated Susan Collins.
“But if they'd had a more charismatic candidate, they probably would have been.”
Listen at 32:01
Glenn Youngkin is a non-MAGA Republican.
“Glenn Youngkin, I would say, is a non-MAGA guy.”
Listen at 33:55
There are currently few viable non-MAGA Republican leaders.
“I don't see non-MAGA.”
Listen at 34:02
Liz Cheney could help select a future non-MAGA Republican leader.
“Liz Cheney could be a king or queen maker.”
Listen at 35:49
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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