Oct 19, 2026 · 44 min
Listen from 34:37
Listen at 34:37
Ondas bets acquisitions can become a defense platform
Ondas Is Building the Next Anduril With 20 Acquisitions in 2 Years
Ondas has assembled a broad defense portfolio at remarkable speed, but its investment case depends on integration, organic growth, profitability, and limiting dilution.
- 1Ondas expanded from a small drone maker into a defense platform spanning counter-drone systems, robotics, software, and manufacturing.
- 2Its platform thesis rests on bundling products and relationships, but integrating roughly 20 acquisitions could overwhelm the operating model.
- 3The bullish case cites rapid revenue growth and backlog, while dilution, execution, and weak organic growth keep the stock speculative.
Don't miss
The hosts quantify Ondas’s dilution, contrasting an increase from approximately 150 million to 500 million shares with the company’s platform ambitions.
The brief
Ondas grew from roughly $7 million in revenue to more than $500 million through acquisitions, transforming a small drone maker into a difficult-to-underwrite defense platform.
Its portfolio now spans counter-drone systems, surveillance, precision strike, ground robotics, manufacturing, and software, raising the question of whether breadth creates a platform or a patchwork.
The hosts compare Ondas with Axon and Anduril while examining takeover and jamming systems, balloons, command software, and the customer value of bundling capabilities.
The central risk is dilution: the share count rose from about 150 million to 500 million as Ondas funded acquisitions, while integration and profitability remain unproven.
Shay makes a bullish but tightly sized case based on growth, backlog, acquisitions, and a Palantir relationship; Brad stays on the fence over execution.
The episode’s conclusion is conditional rather than triumphant: Ondas may own the necessary pieces, but it still has to build a coherent company and generate organic growth.
What was said on this episode
38 statements · 22 positive · 9 negative · 3 mixed · 4 neutral
Ondas revenue grew from $7 million to more than $500 million in two years.
“Ondaz did $7 million in revenue. This year, it's gotten to more than 500 million.”
Listen at 0:10
Ondas acquired 19 companies over the preceding nine months.
“they've acquired 19 different companies in the past nine months”
Listen at 0:28
Ondas’s share count increased from approximately 150 million to 500 million.
“share count's gone from $150 million to $500 million a year”
Listen at 1:01
Ondas is attempting to build a new defense prime.
“the company now is like trying to attempt to build a new defense prime”
Listen at 2:01
Ondas is building an end-to-end counter-drone platform through acquisitions.
“they are building and they piece together a lot of this with M&A and that's going to be the theme of the episode, but an end-to-end platform”
Listen at 3:46
Centrix can hijack drone signals and land drones using parachutes.
“they can kind of hijack the pilot, take over the signal and land the drone with parachutes”
Listen at 4:14
Iron Drone Raider is an automated interceptor drone system.
“this is an automated interceptor drone system”
Listen at 5:56
Omnisis uses consolidated data to optimize drone flights and resource allocation.
“what they're doing is pulling as much data and information as they possibly can to do things like more optimally direct the next drone flight or to allocate resources effectively”
Listen at 8:20
Ondas’s counter-drone strategy combines electronic warfare, takeover, interception, and command feeds.
“Ondas' broader counter drone thesis for the past year has really been built around combining electronic warfare, takeover, interception, and connect to feed”
Listen at 9:13
Design Ultra aircraft can fly over three days while carrying about 400 pounds of sensors.
“this is a long endurance group five aircraft that can remain airborne for more than three days while carrying like around 400 pounds of sensors”
Listen at 11:09
Design Ultra costs about $10 million versus approximately $40 million for an MQ-9.
“the system is like, I think like $10 million aircraft versus something like an MQ-9 that costs around like $40 million”
Listen at 11:22
Ondas’s stratospheric balloon platform completed eight-day tests at lower operating expense than low-orbit satellites.
“they've tested this in 2019, eight day tests with a lot lower operating expense than running low orbit satellites”
Listen at 12:29
Mistral gave Ondas prime-contract relationships and contract vehicles.
“mistral gave on does prime contract relationships and contract vehicles”
Listen at 14:54
More than $240 million had been awarded under the cited loitering-munition program.
“more than like $240 million has already been rewarded”
Listen at 15:06
Gate won a European order worth approximately $50 million after Ondas acquired it.
“Gate landed a like I want to say it was like $50-ish million European order”
Listen at 15:57
The counter-drone segment is expected to compound at more than 25% annually for a decade.
“This segment is growing like an absolute weed. It's supposed to compound a 25 percent plus clip over the next decade.”
Listen at 17:41
Ondas’s software command layer can orchestrate many autonomous systems.
“the command layer, essentially the software layer, that can really orchestrate so many different autonomous systems”
Listen at 18:23
Counter-drone products are experiencing rapid growth due to rising security demand.
“this product is growing at such a rapid clip”
Listen at 19:28
Recent conflicts will drive continued autonomous-systems adoption for decades.
“this is the trend that's going to continue. unfortunately, happening for decades.”
Listen at 21:49
Inexpensive drones can destroy million-dollar equipment and overwhelm costly air defenses.
“inexpensive drones can destroy equipment worth millions of dollars, overwhelm expensive air defense systems”
Listen at 22:00
Anduril will go public in 2027 and have the year’s most prominent IPO.
“if Anduril goes public in 2027, which I really do think it's going to, it's going to be the IPO of the year”
Listen at 24:00
The overall defense opportunity is probably larger in the United States than Europe.
“the overall opportunity in the U.S. is probably bigger just because our economy is way bigger and we spend a lot more on defense than everybody else”
Listen at 25:17
Regna AI will fine-tune open-weight models for secure government and enterprise environments.
“Regna is going to fine-tune open-weight models for governments and enterprises that want to own and operate those models inside these secure, sovereign environments”
Listen at 27:04
Ondas’s platform is less integrated and unified than Anduril’s.
“I don't think they have as integrated and unified platform as a company like Anduril”
Listen at 29:25
Ondas management is pursuing capabilities across surveillance, counter-drone, strike, and robotics.
“management is trying to own capabilities across surveillance, counter drone, strike and robotics”
Listen at 30:13
Ondas raised $1.8 billion over the preceding 18 months.
“they've raised 1.8 billion in capital over the last 18 months”
Listen at 33:35
Ondas’s dilution is expected to continue as the company expands.
“if you're going to buy this company, I would expect that to continue”
Listen at 34:37
Ondas’s acquisition of 20 businesses in under two years creates operational chaos.
“buying 20 businesses in less than two years is like absolute operational chaos”
Listen at 35:14
One customer represented 40% of Ondas’s second-quarter revenue.
“there's one customer that represents 40% of the Q2 revenue”
Listen at 35:54
Operating-income inflection would be more meaningful than EBITDA inflection for Ondas.
“Operating income inflection would be more meaningful to me”
Listen at 37:49
Ondas has approximately $700 million of backlog and an $11 billion pipeline.
“It has, I think, $700 million in backlog. The pipeline is like $11 billion.”
Listen at 38:52
Ondas’s assets could become more valuable when integrated.
“those specific assets are just like going to become larger once they're intertwined together”
Listen at 39:08
Ondas’s acquisition strategy will work if integration generates expansion opportunities and revenue.
“if this portfolio of companies can actually, I don't know, earn. expansion opportunities and you get more revenue because they're working together, then I think the strategy is going to work”
Listen at 39:47
Ondas is currently a story stock rather than an established investment case.
“This is definitely more of a story stock.”
Listen at 40:01
Shay recommends limiting his Ondas position to a maximum 4% portfolio weight.
“it's a max 4% size for me”
Listen at 40:44
Ondas must demonstrate organic growth before receiving a larger position.
“they have to show some organic growth to be honest”
Listen at 40:54
Ondas may reach $1 billion in next-twelve-month revenue within about a year.
“they're a year away from maybe next 12-month revenue being a billion dollars”
Listen at 41:27
Ondas has acquired the necessary pieces but must prove it built a functioning company.
“on dogs bought all the pieces it needs to now they just have to prove they built a company”
Listen at 42:38
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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