Oct 21, 2026 · 23 min
US stocks split as SpaceX expectations brighten
SpaceX hopes burn bright as huge internal divergences within US market continue.
The episode examines why broad US benchmarks remain subdued while individual stocks advance, with SpaceX and earnings reactions adding a sharper test of market optimism.
- 1US market divergences persist as major indices and semiconductors lag many advancing individual stocks.
- 2SpaceX and Netflix earnings reactions become focal points for assessing how investors are pricing optimism.
- 3The discussion connects today’s market split with the 2000–01 comparison and wider global macro pressures.
Don't miss
The episode’s sharpest turn comes when SpaceX optimism is set against continued weakness in major US market benchmarks.
The brief
John Hardy opens with a disclaimer and a market puzzle: major US indices and semiconductors remain subdued even as many individual stocks move higher.
The episode treats that divergence as the central tension, contrasting broad benchmarks with the stronger performance of selected companies and smaller stocks.
SpaceX and Netflix earnings reactions provide a test of whether bright corporate narratives can keep attracting attention while the wider market hesitates.
The discussion widens to comparisons with the 2000–01 market, French yields, and global macro themes, placing the US split in a broader setting.
The takeaway is less a forecast than a map of competing signals: headline indices look restrained while pockets of optimism continue to burn brightly.
What was said on this episode
21 statements · 3 positive · 15 negative · 3 mixed
Goldman Sachs's broad AI index is 21% below its all-time high.
“We're 21% off of the all-time highs in that broad AI index that Goldman Sachs runs.”
Listen at 1:55
The current market resembles the 2000–2002 technology-market period.
“And to me, this market does rhyme with the markets back then.”
Listen at 4:15
Netflix's latest year-over-year quarterly growth was 11.8%.
“This last quarterly growth year-on-year was only at 11.8%.”
Listen at 6:40
Netflix's forecast and advertising revenue disappointed, while viewership began flattening.
“Their forecast was disappointing as well. Their ad revenue was disappointing. The viewership metrics are starting to flatten out.”
Listen at 6:45
Netflix needs a new growth strategy.
“It needs to come up with a new growth strategy.”
Listen at 7:06
SpaceX's AI revenue mainly comes from renting infrastructure.
“I lean towards the latter so far.”
Listen at 9:19
Starlink's business performance is currently strong.
“their Starlink business is looking good.”
Listen at 9:22
“Starlink, I assume that's the quarterly results year on year. And of course, they showed their chops with this new Starship”
Listen at 9:40
A new Starship launch provides capacity equivalent to ten Falcon launches.
“one launch there with the newer technology is equal to 10 launches on Falcon before”
Listen at 9:54
SpaceX may not deserve a greater-than-10% after-hours valuation increase.
“does it deserve to be marked up over 10% after hours? I don't know.”
Listen at 10:14
French bond-market conditions may become a significant concern near 5% yields.
“the French 10-year trading today right at that 5% level. And if we go back to late 2022, when we saw the Germany-Italy spreads once again becoming a problem”
Listen at 11:59
France's ten-year government bond yield is around 5%.
“the French 10-year trading today right at that 5% level.”
Listen at 11:59
US housing starts ran at 1.22 million annualized, below 1.3 million expected.
“it was at an annualized pace of just 1.22 million. versus around 1.3 million expected.”
Listen at 14:50
A downtown Seattle building's value fell 84%, from over $300 million to $48 million.
“the building was valued in 2019 at over $300 million and just sold for $48 million. here recently. So an 84% drop.”
Listen at 15:43
NeoCloud companies are struggling.
“This is another one of these anecdotal stories about the sort of NeoCloud type companies struggling.”
Listen at 17:19
China is leveraging control over yttrium supply chains.
“China leveraging that control of yttrium supply chains.”
Listen at 19:47
Yttrium supply outside China is very limited.
“there's really not much to be had in the rest of the world”
Listen at 19:51
Lynas only plans to process yttrium rather than currently doing so.
“only having their sort of in planning, basically in the roadmap to be able to process the stuff”
Listen at 20:15
The US current-account deficit is a central driver of global instability.
“the U.S. current account deficit, what it means structurally for the global economy, because it is a central driver of global instability.”
Listen at 21:07
The US dollar may need to devalue because the current-account deficit cannot be resolved.
“Does the dollar need to devalue against basically everything that's of a hard asset nature, gold, et cetera, because this current account deficit can never be addressed?”
Listen at 21:40
SpaceX will not rescue the AI trade.
“I don't think SpaceX is here to save the AI trade”
Listen at 22:16
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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