Sep 25, 2026 · 1h 1m
Geopolitical rivalry raises energy, technology and market risks
MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle (Part 2)
The discussion connects conflicts and strategic competition to practical threats involving fuel supplies, AI policy, financial access and nuclear escalation.
- 1Energy disruptions and a possible U.S. diesel export ban could raise fuel costs while provoking international blowback.
- 2The U.S.-China contest links seemingly separate tensions involving Canada, Ukraine, Russia, Iran and the Middle East.
- 3AI competition and potential capital controls show how national security priorities could reshape technology and cross-border investing.
Don't miss
The hosts confront the possibility of a U.S. first nuclear strike against Iran while emphasizing that nuclear war is not the forecast.
The brief
Michael Every and Erik Townsend frame tensions involving Canada, China, Europe and the United States as part of a wider strategic contest, rather than isolated disputes.
Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz are already raising crude-transport costs, while a proposed 90-day U.S. diesel export ban could create shortages, higher prices and foreign backlash.
The conversation links Russia-Ukraine, Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Middle East security to escalation risks, while stressing that complexity does not erase Russia’s responsibility.
AI becomes a new Cold War front: China might emphasize copying or distributing models, challenging U.S. technological advantages without matching frontier-lab spending.
The sharpest financial warning concerns fragmentation: capital controls, exit taxes and unrealized-gains taxes could leave investors unable to access assets across borders.
What was said on this episode
46 statements · 3 positive · 35 negative · 8 neutral
The United States will not accept Canada drifting geopolitically toward China or Europe.
“Do you really think the US is going to accept a Canada which drifts away from it geopolitically, starts doing deals with China, maybe, or with Europe”
Listen at 0:00
Security risks make crude transportation more expensive.
“oil is that much more expensive from a security perspective, the cost involved in getting it out and insurance, et cetera, et cetera”
Listen at 4:59
Iran may expand attacks from Hormuz and the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean.
“not only will they keep striking in Hormuz, not only can they escalate the way they already have via the Houthis in Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea, but they're now talking about the Indian Ocean too”
Listen at 5:22
A US diesel export ban would cause international and domestic shortages and geopolitical problems.
“it can be shortages, obviously, internationally and major geopolitical problems, but it can even be shortages and problems in the US”
Listen at 7:40
A U.S. diesel-export ban may be implemented for 90 days.
“if this 90 day ban does go through, which isn't confirmed yet, it's a political rumor”
Listen at 8:15
A future U.S. fuel-allocation system may prioritize allies over noncompliant countries.
“those who the US works most closely with and trusts the most are at the top of the priority list for fuel. And those who aren't and who refuse to kiss the ring are at the bottom of that list.”
Listen at 10:46
Canada’s key industrial sectors are deeply integrated with the US economy.
“Canada produces high-end value-added industrial goods in a few key sectors, which are completely integrated with it to the US”
Listen at 13:23
Europe does not want to buy Canada’s cars, trains, or jets.
“Europe does not want to buy Canadian cars. Europe does not want to buy Canadian trains. Europe does not want to buy Canadian jets.”
Listen at 13:45
Canada distancing from the United States would produce a poor trade future with Europe.
“Canada would be facing an economic future in which it disentangles itself with an economy, which is just about two hours drive for most of Canadians going south, where 90% of its population lives, to trade more with a bloc on the other side of the Atlantic, which doesn't want to buy its high-valuated goods and only wants to buy its raw materials.”
Listen at 13:53
Canada’s geopolitical distancing from the United States carries severe downside risks.
“This has staggeringly bad fat tail risks on the downside. And where's the upside?”
Listen at 14:37
Canada’s strategy of distancing from the US carries severe downside risks.
“This has staggeringly bad fat tail risks on the downside.”
Listen at 14:37
The US-China contest involves blocs of allied and aligned countries.
“The US with a constellation of countries around it”
Listen at 18:47
The United States is negotiating with surrounding countries over alignment within its geopolitical bloc.
“The US with a constellation of countries around it who are themselves involved in various different open and closed negotiations with the US over where they will sit within that block or whether they want to sit within it at all.”
Listen at 18:47
The United States needs Canada reindustrialized, remilitarized, and spending more on defense.
“the US needs Canada by its side. But it needs a Canada that's re-industrialized, re-militarized, spending a lot more on defense”
Listen at 19:04
Independent Canadian trade policy is incompatible with U.S. strategic alignment.
“that cannot be a Canada which runs its own independent trade policy because it might say, great, we want to do a deal with China when the U.S. doesn't.”
Listen at 19:20
North Korea is developing hypersonic missiles.
“we are seeing North Korea developing hypersonic missiles”
Listen at 21:30
North Korea may send 50,000 additional troops to fight Ukraine alongside Russia.
“it will send 50,000 men on top of any others that it may have already sent to fight against Ukraine with Russia”
Listen at 21:39
Xi Jinping may consider military action against Taiwan next year.
“that Xi Jinping is deadly serious about past statements he's made, and that he would consider moving on Taiwan next year.”
Listen at 24:24
A Taiwan conflict could lead to direct U.S.-China military confrontation in Asia.
“the worst case scenario would be that you then have the US and China involved in a shooting match in Asia”
Listen at 24:50
Ending the Russia-Ukraine war could help align Russia with the United States against China.
“How about bringing peace to that particular war? Were that to happen as a US strategy, might be some kind of lever to try and bring Russia on side with the US against China”
Listen at 27:11
Middle East destabilization could constrain China’s ability to sustain military action in Asia through oil disruption.
“How about if the Middle East is so destabilized in all kinds of ways, that anybody contemplating sustained military action in Asia without having any oil.”
Listen at 27:27
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has a more complex background than commonly presented.
“the background to the Russia-Ukraine being far murkier than it's presented”
Listen at 29:45
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has a complex background involving multiple actors.
“It is complex. It is muddy. No one has clean hands.”
Listen at 29:54
Even a 10% chance of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons would justify major concern.
“if that was even a 10% chance of that happening, and the Middle East with all of its oil reserves then moving out of the US camp into another, that's not a chance you can take.”
Listen at 30:34
China’s industrial complex is much stronger than the United States’ in shipbuilding capacity.
“could the US take on a China with an industrial complex as strong as it is that can build a new ship in five minutes rather than five years”
Listen at 31:27
U.S.-China discussions about AI arms-control are occurring.
“I believe that is happening.”
Listen at 35:14
China suspects US AI regulation aims to preserve a US lead in artificial general intelligence.
“We already have it. You don't. So now we want regulation to make sure others can't get there.”
Listen at 36:05
Expecting durable U.S.-China AI arms-control cooperation is naive.
“I think that's desperately naive because in exactly the same way that we talk about that, and China is no fan of, for example, nuclear weapons, China is massively expanding its nuclear arsenal at the moment.”
Listen at 36:29
A US-China agreement not to weaponize AI is highly naive.
“I think that's desperately naive”
Listen at 36:29
Some Chinese open-source AI performance may derive from US models.
“a lot of the Chinese open source performance has been because they're effectively standing on the shoulders of the US models”
Listen at 41:33
China’s open-source AI strategy may aim to undermine the U.S. AI business model.
“I don't think that China doing that is anything other than an attempt to try and undermine the model that American AI is working on”
Listen at 41:57
China may use financial pressure to cause U.S. AI companies to fail before reaching advanced capabilities.
“They want to blow that up using financial markets by just saying, well, you know, as a company, you don't make enough profit. You're going under before you get there.”
Listen at 42:29
The United States may rely on private and foreign capital to fund advanced AI development.
“I would actually argue it's a genius strategic move by the Americans to say, look, we can't afford X number of trillion dollars borrowing on top of the deficit we've already got. to develop this technology”
Listen at 43:10
The US would nationalize strategically decisive AI technology if necessary.
“if the US had had to outsource the Manhattan Project and nuclear weapons to private labs in Silicon Valley, because they couldn't afford to do it, they wouldn't have let them keep nuclear weapons at the end”
Listen at 43:44
International access to cutting-edge technology may be restricted for national security.
“If you have cutting edge technology, why the hell are you allowing people to fly wherever they want internationally?”
Listen at 47:30
US national-security restrictions may eventually affect leading universities and international researchers.
“How long until people at Harvard or other leading universities”
Listen at 47:40
Some jurisdictions already impose high exit taxes and are introducing unrealized-gains taxes.
“there are many jurisdictions where you already have. ruinously high exit taxes. Then talking about a couple of them are bringing in unrealized capital gains taxes as well.”
Listen at 52:44
More countries will adopt or expand taxes on unrealized capital gains.
“more and more countries bringing that in. And I expect that to be extended and extended because governments are so cash strapped everywhere.”
Listen at 53:04
Governments will expand exit and unrealized-gains taxation as fiscal pressures persist.
“I expect that to be extended and extended because governments are so cash strapped everywhere.”
Listen at 53:05
Financial restrictions and capital controls will accelerate.
“I expect that process to accelerate going forward rather than slow down.”
Listen at 54:25
A nuclear war is not currently the expected outcome.
“I don't actually think we are heading for a nuclear war.”
Listen at 55:27
A tactical nuclear strike could be considered to neutralize Iran’s underground nuclear program.
“The only way you might be able to do that is to drop a tactical nuclear weapon or a series of tactical nuclear weapons on them.”
Listen at 56:40
Iranian escalation could lead to U.S. use of tactical nuclear weapons.
“I wouldn't rule it out if, for example, Iran does now escalate, start hitting tankers off Iran, start hitting tankers in the Indian Ocean, start escalating more via the Houthis.”
Listen at 57:09
Russia could use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine if economic damage continues.
“Russia, lots of rumors that if Ukraine were to keep damaging the Russian economy as much as it has been, at some point, Russia could say, okay, we're going to use a tactical nuclear weapon somewhere in Ukraine.”
Listen at 57:33
Russia might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine if its economy is sufficiently damaged.
“Russia could say, okay, we're going to use a tactical nuclear weapon somewhere in Ukraine”
Listen at 57:39
A tactical nuclear strike would cause panic in global markets.
“the risk of it and what it would do to global markets in terms of the panic”
Listen at 58:00
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.