Sep 24, 2026 · 1h 12m
Geopolitics turns diesel and oil into strategic weapons
MacroVoices #551 Michael Every: Decoding The Global Geopolitical Puzzle
The episode connects refinery vulnerability, energy supply chains, and market positioning to a wider struggle over currencies, rates, and global power.
- 1Diesel markets may face sharper disruption than crude prices reveal because refineries, inventories, and supply chains are vulnerable.
- 2China is preparing for a fragmented world through stockpiles and redundancies while avoiding direct conflict and preserving leverage.
- 3The market desk sees persistent geopolitical risk beneath oil’s correction, alongside major repricing in the dollar, bonds, gold, copper, and yen.
Don't miss
Michael Every explains why diesel, not headline crude, may be the more fragile and geopolitically consequential part of the energy system.
The brief
Michael Every frames oil as the hinge connecting the Iran and Russia–Ukraine conflicts to interest rates, currencies, elections, and geopolitical power.
Ukraine’s refinery strikes expose a diesel vulnerability that headline crude prices can obscure, while a U.S. export ban could damage alliances and invite retaliation.
Every reads China’s strategy as resilience without immediate war: stockpiles, redundancies, and economic preparation designed to withstand coercion and pressure rivals.
The discussion widens to Greenland, Denmark, and dollar stablecoins, arguing that public geopolitical positions can shift quickly while financial infrastructure becomes statecraft.
The Market Desk finds oil’s pullback compatible with persistent supply risk, then tracks a stronger dollar, rising yields, gold support, crowded copper longs, and a historic yen reversal.
What was said on this episode
28 statements · 10 positive · 15 negative · 3 neutral
Saudi oil infrastructure remains vulnerable to repeated attacks.
“Yambu can be attacked all the time, Riyadh can be attacked all the time, Aramco can be attacked all the time.”
Listen at 3:01
U.S.-Iran escalation is expected after the election.
“That is our base case, that you will see escalation once the election's out of the way.”
Listen at 4:34
A U.S. escalation may involve Israel and GCC states.
“It's more likely to be the US and Israel and a coalition from the GCC to try and really finish the job.”
Listen at 5:38
The Middle East may remain deliberately destabilized after failed regime change.
“You ensure that one way or another, the Middle East remains destabilized”
Listen at 8:40
A major U.S. military escalation is considered seriously likely.
“Serious people who take this matter seriously are having serious discussions about the serious likelihood of that happening.”
Listen at 10:01
Record diesel prices are causing political, economic, and social stress.
“You are seeing serious signs of political stress, economic stress, and even social unrest. in some countries on the back of that now.”
Listen at 11:48
A serious diesel crisis is realistically possible.
“you can make a realistic prognosis that a genuine, really serious diesel crisis is possible.”
Listen at 16:21
Russia-Ukraine is closer to escalation than peace.
“we're far closer to escalation than we are to peace in our time.”
Listen at 17:37
The Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars may merge into one conflict.
“both of those wars are closer to a conflation and a conflagration where we see that actually they are the same war”
Listen at 17:54
The U.S. can use the Defense Production Act to direct refineries.
“the US can use economic statecraft like the Defense Production Act to tell refineries what to do.”
Listen at 25:41
A U.S. diesel export ban would damage many foreign relationships.
“Geopolitically, you would burn an incredible number of bridges where America would turn around and say, right, nobody gets any.”
Listen at 27:10
The U.S. retains control in Greenland regardless of independence status.
“the US gets to keep what's going on there, regardless of Greenland status.”
Listen at 31:32
The agreement gives the U.S. broad military freedom in Greenland.
“So the US basically has freedom to do whatever it wants, pretty much militarily.”
Listen at 31:52
The U.S. can veto other investment in Greenland.
“US gets veto rights.”
Listen at 32:08
China’s economic preparation makes it resilient during war.
“They can do okay during a war because they've really heavily armored their economy by preparing for exactly these kinds of events.”
Listen at 37:30
China wants the Russia-Ukraine war to stop without Russia losing.
“they don't want Russia to lose.”
Listen at 37:53
China wants the Middle East war to stop without Iran losing.
“they don't want Iran to lose.”
Listen at 38:04
Dollar stablecoins could give the U.S. greater financial-system leverage.
“the US would have used them strategically to try and gain extra leverage within the global financial system.”
Listen at 41:04
The U.S. is strongly committed to stablecoin statecraft.
“The US is deadly serious about this.”
Listen at 42:49
Patrick recommends a USO January 2027 bull call spread.
“The structure is a bull call spread between the $150 to $180 strikes.”
Listen at 47:26
The S&P 500 could rise to 8,000–8,200 after breaking its highs.
“if it breaks the 52-week highs here, this could easily head to 8,000 to 8,200 on the upside.”
Listen at 52:13
Weak market breadth could precede a 10% equity correction.
“we're in the midst of some sort of 10% correction going into the midterms.”
Listen at 54:02
The euro could decline toward 1.08–1.10 against the dollar.
“if the euro is destined to head down to this, let's say 108 to 110 level on the downside”
Listen at 58:16
Oil could rise to $110–$120 per barrel.
“I think it's completely on the table in light of the current situation.”
Listen at 1:00:05
Gold’s recent rally may prove to be a false start.
“this could be a false start on the gold's rally.”
Listen at 1:03:02
Copper’s bullish trend remains in control despite crowded positioning.
“you have to respect that the bulls remain in control of the copper market.”
Listen at 1:04:57
URA below 40 would signal a continuing distribution cycle.
“if we see any breakdown below 40, that leaves a distribution cycle in play”
Listen at 1:06:17
A stronger U.S. dollar could disrupt the yen bullish thesis.
“The question is, is the U.S. dollar rally going to now be a disruptor in this yen bull thesis?”
Listen at 1:09:44
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.