Nov 8, 2026 · 35 min
Growth investors reassess AI bets and portfolio resilience
Our Monthly Portfolio Update - October 2026
The episode shows how long-term investors weigh strong business performance against slowing growth, strategic risk, valuation pressure, and volatile markets.
- 1Diversification helped frame October’s uneven performance across regions, sectors, and core and satellite portfolios.
- 2Alphabet, Sea Limited, and other holdings face sharper questions as AI reshapes established growth strategies.
- 3Eli Lilly, Intuitive Surgical, Spotify, Grab, and Shopify illustrate different paths to durable growth and profitability.
Don't miss
The hosts dissect Sea Limited’s leaked memo, questioning why a growing, profitable digital-finance business would be spun out to pursue AI-oriented cloud computing.
The brief
Bryce and René review a difficult October for growth investors, comparing global markets with their core and satellite portfolios while testing the case for diversification and long-term thinking.
The portfolio winners included Eli Lilly, Spotify, Pro Medicus, Intuitive Surgical, Grab, and Shopify; weakness in Alphabet, TransMedics, Sea Limited, and Asian technology stocks exposed the risks.
Alphabet becomes a test of thesis discipline: strong cloud, YouTube, Waymo, and overall results must offset slowing search growth and uncertainty over monetizing AI search.
Sea Limited offers the sharpest strategic dilemma after a leaked memo proposed spinning out its profitable digital-finance business and pursuing AI-oriented cloud computing.
The hosts argue that exceptional companies can justify volatility, but investors must keep reassessing whether management decisions still support the original investment thesis.
What was said on this episode
28 statements · 17 positive · 7 negative · 4 mixed
US economic growth and corporate profits are currently strong.
“The economy looks strong in the US, though. We saw 3.4% annual GDP growth, and corporate profits are up 30% year on year.”
Listen at 2:34
Investors reassessed exposure to smaller data-center companies.
“i feel like it was a month where investors rethought their exposure uh to the smaller data center players”
Listen at 3:24
Alphabet and Amazon burned cash, while Microsoft generated free cash flow.
“Alphabet and amazon both reported and they both had quarterly cash burn However, Microsoft rose after reporting because they were one of the few mega caps that actually had free cash flow.”
Listen at 3:42
Market divergence reinforces the value of portfolio diversification.
“it is just another reminder of why we stay diversified”
Listen at 6:18
Intuitive Surgical's business outlook remains strong.
“the story remains strong”
Listen at 13:13
Bryce is continuing to increase his Intuitive Surgical position.
“This is a position that I'm continuing to build in the portfolio.”
Listen at 13:44
Fund managers can use numerical analysis to obscure individual-investor decisions.
“the more that we speak to fund managers the more that i realize numbers can sometimes be a crutch”
Listen at 16:02
Long-term investors should keep buying exceptional companies despite volatility.
“i just want to find great companies i want to keep buying them”
Listen at 16:27
Avoiding all losses can reduce the chance of achieving very large returns.
“if you buy three stocks where you're guaranteed not to lose money you're probably not going to make like huge returns”
Listen at 16:53
Individual investors have a time-horizon advantage over professional investors.
“the one advantage we have over professionals is that time horizon arbitrage”
Listen at 17:57
High-growth companies can justify current valuations if rapid growth continues.
“if they can keep growing at the growth rates they're growing at, they can grow into those valuations”
Listen at 19:11
Alphabet is currently struggling to monetize AI Mode in search.
“they are struggling to monetize their ai mode”
Listen at 20:20
Bryce will not buy additional Alphabet shares for now.
“i'm not going to buy anymore”
Listen at 21:01
Continued Alphabet search deceleration would become problematic.
“if this keeps if this trend keeps going it's gonna be problematic”
Listen at 21:16
Alphabet has multiple potential paths to future success.
“google alphabet has multiple ways to win”
Listen at 22:01
Alphabet remains the dominant search franchise.
“they are still the dominant franchise”
Listen at 22:37
René may buy more Alphabet shares if its price continues falling.
“if they keep falling maybe buy more”
Listen at 22:42
Spotify dominates music but may face a ceiling in that market.
“Spotify is one where I think about like, what's its next act? Like it's so dominant in music, but I feel like there's a ceiling there.”
Listen at 23:20
Spotify remains dominant, profitable, and continues attracting paying subscribers.
“they're dominant they're still making money they're still getting people subscribing and paying for it”
Listen at 24:43
Eli Lilly is now primarily a GLP-1 drug company rather than diversified pharma.
“This is a GLP-1 story. Absolutely. This is not diversified farmer anymore.”
Listen at 26:31
Eli Lilly's volume growth must offset continuing price declines.
“the thesis has to be that the volume growth will offset it”
Listen at 27:05
Novo Nordisk currently leads Eli Lilly in oral GLP-1 pills.
“novo has a head start on these oral pills”
Listen at 27:11
Sea Limited's Money business is likely its strongest and is growing rapidly profitably.
“Money is probably C's best business. It grew revenue at almost 60% last quarter. It earned almost 300 million in adjusted EBITDA.”
Listen at 28:31
René would probably sell Sea Limited if it spins out Money.
“if they do it, I'm selling, I think. No, I probably am.”
Listen at 28:51
Sea Limited's underlying business is performing strongly.
“the underlying business flying”
Listen at 29:16
Grab's three business segments are now profitable on an adjusted basis.
“all three segments of Grab's business are now profitable”
Listen at 30:57
Shopify merchants' online sales grew faster than the broader US e-commerce market.
“u.s merchants so merchants that use shopify Their online sales grew at 23% compound annual growth rate for the past three years compared to 8% for the broader US e-commerce market overall.”
Listen at 32:02
“Shopify has captured nearly half of incremental US e-commerce sales.”
Listen at 32:27
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Books & mentions
Some links are affiliate links — PodLume may earn a commission if you buy.
The Little Book That Still Beats the Market
It connects with the hosts’ discussion of finding high-quality companies and investing systematically over long horizons.
The Psychology of Money
It complements the episode’s emphasis on behavior, volatility, patience, and resisting short-term performance fixation.
Weekly email
State of the Pod, every Monday
The week's most-discussed names and stories from podcasts, with the moments behind them. Free, five minutes, unsubscribe in one click.