Sep 18, 2026 · 34 min
Horwitz sees oil falling as Treasury yields climb toward 6%
Trader Called 5% Yields—Now Predicts 6%, $60 Oil, $100K Bitcoin | Todd Horwitz
The episode connects weaker oil demand, higher borrowing costs, and potential market stress into one bearish macroeconomic scenario.
- 1Todd Horwitz expects oil to fall into the low $60s as weak demand and excess supply outweigh geopolitical fear.
- 2He predicts the 10-year Treasury yield could reach 6%, raising borrowing costs and risking a major equity-market sell-off.
- 3Despite that outlook, Horwitz remains long equities with hedges and sees upside potential in Bitcoin and resilience in gold.
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Horwitz links a possible 6% 10-year Treasury yield to a market reset, arguing that a significant sell-off may be necessary.
The brief
Todd Horwitz argues oil prices are being sustained by fear rather than fundamentals, with weak demand, excess supply, and a downward-sloping forward curve pointing toward the low $60s.
The oil debate widens into inflation: cheaper crude could eventually ease transportation and food costs, even as record diesel prices and refining margins keep pressure elevated.
Horwitz’s central warning is the 10-year Treasury yield, which he says could reach 6% as bond futures weaken, lifting mortgages, car loans, and broader borrowing costs.
That rate forecast carries the episode’s main market risk: intervention may fail, policymakers face a no-win situation, and a major sell-off could reset distorted prices.
Horwitz still holds equities with hedges, while expecting Bitcoin to break above $82,000 and arguing that gold may withstand higher real yields near a potential bottom.