Oct 27, 2026 · 1h 46m
Hosts see a Democratic wave reshaping the midterm map
The Midterm Map MADNESS to Beat Them All (with Evan Scrimshaw and Ryan Jakubowski)
The panel tests whether national dissatisfaction can overcome Republican incumbency and local advantages across a volatile Senate and House landscape.
- 1Polling, presidential unpopularity, economic dissatisfaction, and weak Republican candidates point toward a substantial Democratic wave.
- 2Texas and Maine emerge as tests of whether strong Republican state advantages can protect vulnerable incumbents.
- 3The panel warns forecasters not to overcorrect, even as its simplest reading of the evidence favors Democrats.
Don't miss
The panel’s final forecast converges on Democratic control of both the Senate and House while debating how large the gains could become.
The brief
Evan Scrimshaw and Ryan Jakubowski join Justin for a final-week tour of the midterm map, weighing national polling against candidate quality, local brands, and the risk of forecasting hubris.
The panel sees a Democratic wave building, but Texas and Maine test its limits: James Talarico challenges Ken Paxton while Susan Collins relies on a durable Maine identity.
From Ohio and Alaska to Michigan and Georgia, the discussion asks whether unusual national conditions can overwhelm incumbents, reshape turnout, and expose weak campaigns.
The House outlook turns Kentucky 6, Virginia 5, and Texas 35 into early indicators of whether Democratic gains will remain narrow or become genuinely expansive.
The closing forecast favors Democratic control of both chambers, while the panel’s sharpest caution is against abandoning plausible Republican defenses simply because a wave looks likely.
What was said on this episode
44 statements · 31 positive · 7 negative · 6 neutral
- Ryan Jakubowskion 2026 Democratic Senate controlPositive5:32
Quantitative models will predict Democrats winning the Senate.
“a Democratic Senate will be Nate Silver's prediction, right? Anybody doing a quantitative model will predict a Democratic Senate.”
Listen at 5:32
Adam Hamilton has a 15–20% chance of winning Kansas.
“Adam Hamilton is maybe a, I don't know. call it a 15 to 20 percent chance of winning.”
Listen at 9:13
The Texas Senate race is essentially a toss-up.
“I still think this is essentially a toss-up race, and I think with a different candidate, it might not have been.”
Listen at 14:31
The Texas Senate race is essentially a toss-up.
“I still think this is essentially a toss-up race”
Listen at 14:31
Tallarico versus Paxton is a toss-up.
“I think it's a toss-up like you do, Justin.”
Listen at 20:13
James Tallarico will win Texas by approximately three points.
“I have Tallarico winning by three, let's say.”
Listen at 21:32
James Tallarico will win Texas by approximately three points.
“I have Tallarico winning by three, let's say.”
Listen at 21:32
Ken Paxton will win the Texas Senate race.
“I still think Cam Paxton's going to win”
Listen at 22:12
- Ryan Jakubowskion Ken Paxton Texas Senate campaignNegative28:58
Ken Paxton could incur a five-point penalty amid a ten-point national swing.
“The problem is... If there's a five-point Ken Paxton penalty plus a 10-point swing nationally, well, that's how you get to 15”
Listen at 28:58
Troy Jackson will win the Maine Senate race.
“The more I think about it, the more I think Troy Jackson's going to win.”
Listen at 31:59
The evidence provides a stronger case for Troy Jackson.
“there is a better faith case to be made for Troy Jackson.”
Listen at 34:56
Ken Paxton and Susan Collins will win their Senate races.
“I would, you know, if I had to put money down right now, I would put them down on Ken Paxton and Susan Collins.”
Listen at 41:51
Republicans will win Texas and Maine Senate races.
“I would put them down on Ken Paxton and Susan Collins.”
Listen at 41:56
Ken Paxton may be an attractive betting opportunity.
“I have thought about putting a substantial sum of money on Ken Paxson”
Listen at 42:23
The Iran war is an exceptionally damaging American policy decision.
“The Iran war is the dumbest American decision, the biggest self-own. Like, I'm going to argue since Vietnam.”
Listen at 43:34
The Iran war is America’s biggest foreign-policy self-own since Vietnam.
“The Iran war is the dumbest American decision, the biggest self-own. Like, I'm going to argue since Vietnam.”
Listen at 43:34
Tariffs and the Iran war are politically toxic for Republicans.
“both tariffs and this war politically are absolute rat poison.”
Listen at 45:40
Benjamin Netanyahu will leave Israel’s leadership.
“It does seem at least at the hour that I am recording this, that Benjamin Netanyahu will end. His extraordinarily consequential reign at the helm of that nation”
Listen at 49:22
Benjamin Netanyahu appears likely to lose Israel’s premiership.
“it does, at least right now, look like it is curtains for Netanyahu.”
Listen at 51:08
- Ryan Jakubowskion Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola Senate campaignsPositive58:16
Sherrod Brown will win by three points and Mary Peltola by five.
“Cher probably wins by like three. Peltola wins by five.”
Listen at 58:16
The Michigan Senate race will be decided by two points or less.
“that race is going to be 2% or less.”
Listen at 59:31
The Michigan Senate race remains a toss-up.
“I think the race is still a toss-up.”
Listen at 1:00:27
- Ryan Jakubowskion Abdul El-Sayed Michigan Senate campaignPositive1:01:01
Abdul El-Sayed will win Michigan by 3.5–4.5 points.
“I think this is going to land in the three and a half to four and a half zone”
Listen at 1:01:01
- Ryan Jakubowskion Abdul El-Sayed Michigan Senate campaignPositive1:01:01
Abdul El-Sayed will win Michigan by 3.5–4.5 points.
“I think this is going to land in the three and a half to four and a half zone”
Listen at 1:01:01
Michelle Tafoya could have a favorable future special-election opportunity.
“Tafoya gets like a quote unquote free run out of Senate seat for, you know, like three years.”
Listen at 1:05:23
Sherrod Brown will narrowly win Ohio.
“Sherrod Brown ekes it out.”
Listen at 1:10:48
Mary Peltola is favored to win Alaska.
“I think she's favored.”
Listen at 1:11:32
Keisha Lance Bottoms is more likely to win Georgia’s governor race.
“I wouldn't bet on her losing, but I also would not be surprised.”
Listen at 1:14:06
Rick Jackson will narrowly win Georgia’s governor race.
“I think Jackson's going to win narrowly”
Listen at 1:14:39
- Ryan Jakubowskion Barack Obama midterm campaigningPositive1:17:00
Obama’s midterm value is mobilizing reliable Democratic voters.
“In a midterm, the goal is to just get people who reliably vote Democrat to actually get off.”
Listen at 1:17:00
- Ryan Jakubowskion Barack Obama midterm campaigningPositive1:17:00
Obama’s midterm value is mobilizing reliable Democratic voters.
“In a midterm, the goal is to just get people who reliably vote Democrat to actually get off.”
Listen at 1:17:00
- Ryan Jakubowskion Barack Obama Michigan campaigningPositive1:17:12
Obama campaigning has some value in Michigan.
“I think in a state like Michigan, he has some value”
Listen at 1:17:12
- Ryan Jakubowskion Virginia 5 and Kentucky 6 House racesNeutral1:22:29
Virginia 5 and Kentucky 6 are Democratic reach seats.
“I think VA5, like Kentucky 6, they're both reached Democratic seats.”
Listen at 1:22:29
- Ryan Jakubowskion Texas’s 35th Congressional DistrictPositive1:24:40
A Democratic win in Texas’s 35th supports Tallarico winning statewide.
“if that one goes blue, then Tallarico is getting the numbers.”
Listen at 1:24:40
- Ryan Jakubowskion Texas Republican gerrymanderNegative1:25:15
The Republican Texas gerrymander may yield only one additional House seat.
“the Republican gerrymander could legitimately net only one extra seat for Republicans”
Listen at 1:25:15
- Ryan Jakubowskion 2026 Democratic congressional performancePositive1:26:41
Democrats will win 52 Senate seats and 235 House seats.
“Democrats are going to win 52 Senate seats. They're going to win 235 seats in the House.”
Listen at 1:26:41
Democrats will win 51 Senate seats.
“I think Democrats in 51 Senate seats”
Listen at 1:27:05
The simplest forecast is a Democratic blue-wave election.
“the Occam's razor simple answer is Democrats is going to be a blue wave”
Listen at 1:31:58
- Ryan Jakubowskion 2026 Democratic electoral environmentPositive1:31:58
Polling indicates a Democratic blue wave and a 10–11-point swing.
“the Occam's razor simple answer is Democrats is going to be a blue wave because the best bolsters in America are all saying it's a denied environment. It's a 10, 11 point swing since the last time there was an election.”
Listen at 1:31:58
- Ryan Jakubowskion 2026 national electoral environmentPositive1:32:06
The national environment has shifted 10–11 points toward Democrats.
“It's a 10, 11 point swing since the last time there was an election”
Listen at 1:32:06
The Seattle Seahawks will make the playoffs.
“I think this is still a playoff team.”
Listen at 1:34:21
Seattle’s defense can support 10–11 wins.
“I think the defense is, you know, good enough to get this team to 10 or 11 wins”
Listen at 1:34:37
- Ryan Jakubowskion Miami Dolphins under Brian FloresPositive1:37:05
Miami might have won a Super Bowl with Brian Flores and Justin Herbert.
“The Dolphins maybe win a Super Bowl with Flores as their coach.”
Listen at 1:37:05
- Ryan Jakubowskion Miami Dolphins under Brian FloresPositive1:37:05
The Miami Dolphins might have won a Super Bowl with Brian Flores and Justin Herbert.
“The Dolphins maybe win a Super Bowl with Flores as their coach.”
Listen at 1:37:05
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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