Nov 5, 2026 · 22 min
Ian Cassel frames microcap investing as a search for opportunity
Find the Bull Market by Ian Cassel
The episode introduces a mindset for identifying opportunity in bull markets while grounding Cassel’s presentation in his personal connection to the event.
- 1Ian Cassel uses the event’s history and personal significance to frame his approach to microcap investing.
- 2The presentation centers on finding opportunity in bull markets rather than treating market conditions as background noise.
- 3Cassel emphasizes that successful microcap investing begins with the right mindset and clear expectations.
Don't miss
Cassel’s opening reflection on the event’s personal significance turns a thank-you into the foundation for his investing framework.
The brief
Ian Cassel opens by thanking Paul and Trevor for the invitation, immediately establishing a personal connection to the gathering and its history.
That history is not incidental: Cassel uses the event’s significance to introduce a presentation about finding opportunity in bull markets.
The central premise is that microcap investing requires more than identifying companies; it demands a mindset suited to recognizing opportunity when markets are rising.
Cassel sets expectations for the presentation by linking market opportunity with the discipline and perspective needed to approach microcaps well.
What was said on this episode
46 statements · 30 positive · 8 negative · 1 mixed · 7 neutral
Jesse Livermore was strongly bullish during the 1928–1929 runaway bull market.
“from the winter of 1928 to the spring of 1929, Jesse Livermore was a raging bull in a runaway bull market”
Listen at 1:39
“the market basically went straight up. It quadrupled.”
Listen at 1:51
“Livermore made a lot of money on the long side.”
Listen at 1:55
Jesse Livermore held $100 million in short positions by Black Thursday.
“By the time Black Thursday came on October 24th, 1929, Jesse Livermore was short $100 million.”
Listen at 3:18
Jesse Livermore held short positions worth $100 million by Black Thursday.
“Jesse Livermore was short $100 million”
Listen at 3:23
Markets fell 9% intraday on Black Thursday.
“the markets dropped 9% intraday”
Listen at 3:40
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 13% on Black Monday.
“The Dow dropped 13%.”
Listen at 3:57
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell another 12% on Black Tuesday.
“The Dow dropped another 12%.”
Listen at 4:04
“Livermore made over $100 million that week”
Listen at 6:57
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 89% from its 1929 peak by 1932.
“By 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was a smoking crater. It had dropped 89% from its 1929 peak.”
Listen at 7:21
“During this massive 89% drawdown, there was a stock that quietly rose 49%.”
Listen at 7:56
“there was a stock that quietly rose 49%”
Listen at 7:59
Homestake rose 580% by 1936 while the Dow remained 59% below its high.
“By 1936, while the Dow was still down 59% from its high, that same stock was up 580%.”
Listen at 8:02
Homestake’s earnings per share increased sharply during the Depression.
“earnings per share skyrocketed.”
Listen at 8:37
Homestake EPS rose from $2 in 1926 to $32 in 1935.
“Earnings per share went from $2 per share in earnings in 1926 to $32 in earnings in 1935.”
Listen at 8:39
WD-40 completed its public offering in January 1973.
“WD-40 went public in January of 1973”
Listen at 10:39
“over the next three years, WD-40 stock quadrupled”
Listen at 11:00
“over the next three years, WD-40 stock quadrupled.”
Listen at 11:00
Sugar prices rose 600% during the 1970s bear market.
“when commodities surged, sugar prices went up 600%”
Listen at 11:32
Sugar prices increased 600% during the 1970s bear market.
“sugar prices went up 600%.”
Listen at 11:33
Alexander and Baldwin rose 50% while U.S. stock indices fell 50%.
“Alexander and Baldwin would be the best performing stock on U.S. stock exchanges, going up 50% while the indices fell 50%.”
Listen at 11:38
Bear-market winners are usually different from preceding bull-market winners.
“The thing that does well in the bear market is almost never the thing that did well in the bull market that preceded it.”
Listen at 11:49
The difference between bull- and bear-market winners is mechanical rather than coincidental.
“It's not coincidence. It's mechanical.”
Listen at 11:55
Optimism favors growth stories, while fear favors cash flow, necessities, and tangible assets.
“bull markets are paid for with optimism, and optimism flows toward growth, story, and possibility. Bear markets are paid for with fear, and fear flows toward cash flow, necessity, and things you can touch.”
Listen at 11:59
Fear during bear markets directs capital toward cash flow, necessities, and tangible assets.
“Bear markets are paid for with fear, and fear flows toward cash flow, necessity, and things you can touch.”
Listen at 12:05
“The spectacular winner was energy.”
Listen at 12:43
Rising oil prices coincided with positive energy stocks during the technology collapse.
“Oil climbed from $20 per barrel to $35, and energy stocks turned positive when technology was vaporized.”
Listen at 12:45
Walmart and McDonald’s were the only non-energy Dow stocks that gained during the dot-com crash.
“The only two non-energy Dow stocks that were up were Walmart and McDonald's.”
Listen at 12:54
Economic hardship causes consumers to shift toward lower-priced goods.
“When people get poorer, they don't stop eating or buying toothpaste. They trade down to lower price points.”
Listen at 13:03
Tractor Supply rose 264% while technology and broad markets declined.
“tractor supply wasn't aware of the spare market. It completely bucked the trend, moving up 264%.”
Listen at 13:52
Tractor Supply is up 12,000% from its dot-com bubble peak.
“Fast forward to today and tractor supply is up 12,000% from the dot-com bubble peak.”
Listen at 13:58
Great microcap stocks can outperform in any market environment.
“It doesn't matter the market environment. You can always find great microcap stocks that will outperform.”
Listen at 14:05
Great microcap stocks can always be found that outperform regardless of market conditions.
“You can always find great microcap stocks that will outperform.”
Listen at 14:07
ZAG rose 297% while the S&P 500 fell 37% during the financial crisis.
“Zag went up 297%, while the S&P went down 37%.”
Listen at 16:01
Institutions reduce microcap and small-cap exposure during bear markets.
“During bear markets, institutions reduce micro-cap and small-cap exposure.”
Listen at 16:17
Great businesses without institutional ownership perform better during bear markets.
“Great businesses with no institutional ownership do better in bear markets because institutions don't own them.”
Listen at 16:35
Institutional capital is attracted to undiscovered, fast-growing, profitable companies.
“institutional capital is always attracted to undiscovered, fast-growing, profitable companies they don't own.”
Listen at 16:55
BioAmerica’s stock rose 500% in one day after announcing a rapid COVID test.
“The stock went up 500% in a single day.”
Listen at 18:03
BioAmerica’s stock gains offset most of Ian Cassel’s portfolio losses.
“that stock bailed out my entire portfolio.”
Listen at 18:07
The current S&P-led bull market’s end cannot be predicted and does not matter.
“no one knows when it will end and quite frankly it doesn't matter when it will end”
Listen at 19:02
About 50% of stocks rise in bull markets versus 2% in bear markets.
“in bull markets 50 of stocks go up in bear markets two percent of stocks go up”
Listen at 19:07
The TSX Venture Exchange declined 12% over 26 years.
“It's down 12% over 26 years.”
Listen at 19:35
Hundreds of successful companies existed within the declining TSX Venture Exchange.
“there have been hundreds and hundreds of winners hiding in this chart, hiding in the TSX Venture Exchange.”
Listen at 19:58
A bull market can always be found within a bear market.
“you can always find a bull market hiding inside a bear market Always.”
Listen at 20:46
Headline indices conceal growth in industries, niches, and individual companies.
“The headline index is just an average. An average is a story about the middle. It tells you nothing about the industries, the niches of industries, or individual companies where growth is still happening under the surface of the index.”
Listen at 20:52
Stock pickers should identify outperforming markets within broader downturns.
“a stock picker's job is to find the bull market”
Listen at 21:25
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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