Oct 30, 2026 · 1h 11m
Indexes plunge as investors retreat to cash
Watch These Levels As Indexes Plunge; eBay, Regeneron, CBOE In Focus
The episode explains how widespread technical damage changes portfolio exposure while investors wait for evidence of a durable market low.
- 1Major indexes, semiconductors, software, and many post-earnings charts show broad technical weakness.
- 2eBay, Regeneron, Cboe, and select medical and retail stocks offer isolated relative strength.
- 3The hosts favor cash preservation and a confirmed follow-through day over forcing new trades.
Don't miss
Mike’s broad chart review shows failed moving-average support across major indexes and explains why a confirmed follow-through day matters.
The brief
Alissa Coram and Mike Webster open with a sharp sell-off across major indexes, arguing that earnings uncertainty, Federal Reserve policy, and the election complicate portfolio positioning.
Post-earnings declines in SanDisk, Alphabet, Amazon, and ServiceNow expose the difference between a stock under pressure and a chart whose technical setup is genuinely broken.
Semiconductors and software weaken broadly, while retail, biotech, medical, and financial names provide only selective resistance through stocks such as eBay, Regeneron, and Cboe.
Mike’s Mosaic review finds failed attempts to hold key moving averages across SPY, the Nasdaq, equal-weight indexes, small caps, and mid-caps, leaving few areas to trust.
The plan is deliberately defensive: preserve cash, avoid forcing trades, and wait for a rally followed by a confirmed follow-through day before increasing exposure.
What was said on this episode
59 statements · 25 positive · 28 negative · 6 neutral
The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.5% on Friday.
“the NASDAQ 100. down 3.5% on the day”
Listen at 1:33
The average S&P 500 stock is outperforming the major indexes.
“the average stock holding up quite a bit better than the indexes here”
Listen at 2:06
Post-Reg FD earnings releases are likely to cause large stock-price gaps.
“every one of your stocks is likely going to gap way up or way down”
Listen at 3:31
Former leading stocks decline 72% on average after topping.
“when they've topped, on average, they will come down 72%”
Listen at 5:47
About one in eight topped stocks later regain market leadership.
“about one in eight stocks would come back to lead again”
Listen at 6:18
Investors should not continue holding Sandisk after major topping damage.
“There is no real logical reason to still be in it.”
Listen at 6:34
Investors should exit stocks when relative-strength lines fall below the final moving average.
“Once it goes underneath that last moving average, even if you've had a big gain, that's the time to exit.”
Listen at 7:39
Mike waits for Sandisk's relative-strength line to reclaim moving averages before repurchasing.
“I wait for the RS line to get back above those moving averages before I'd even consider buying it back.”
Listen at 10:24
Stocks trading below their 200-day moving average face worse conditions.
“good things happen above your 200-day, bad things happen below it”
Listen at 10:52
Breaking the 200-day average without institutional support creates substantial downside uncertainty.
“once you break it and the institutions aren't supporting it there, you don't know how low it's going to go”
Listen at 10:56
The Nasdaq could find support and move higher after next week’s news.
“this could just... find support, have a move up”
Listen at 11:16
RSP is not technically broken despite its decline.
“it's not a broken chart”
Listen at 12:18
Amazon could become a viable setup within two or three weeks if conditions improve.
“this could be viable in two, three weeks”
Listen at 15:59
Broken institutional stocks such as Intel and ServiceNow may need about a year to rebuild.
“needs time, as in a lot of time, like, you know, a year or so”
Listen at 16:09
Intel, ServiceNow, and FTNT have technically broken charts.
“those are broken charts and just the more charts you look at”
Listen at 17:01
Intel, ServiceNow, and FTNT have technically broken charts.
“So Intel is broken. ServiceNow is broken. FTNT is broken.”
Listen at 17:15
Housing and construction could provide leadership as interest rates decline.
“the housing area and construction area with interest rates starting to back off. Those could come”
Listen at 18:39
Serious market crashes are historically uncommon.
“it's very rare to have a serious crash”
Listen at 18:58
Severe crashes and bear markets occur infrequently.
“those flash crashes and really serious bear markets like 07 and 2000, 1973, and 1929, those are few and far between”
Listen at 19:15
The economy is not currently in serious trouble.
“I don't think the economy's in trouble here.”
Listen at 19:47
A Nasdaq break below its 200-day average would pressure the S&P 500 toward its own 200-day.
“if NASDAQ goes underneath that 200-day, it's going to bring the S&P to want to test its 200-day”
Listen at 20:32
The S&P 500 reaching its 200-day average after Nasdaq weakness would indicate bear-market territory.
“then we're in bear market territory at that point”
Listen at 20:53
Money is flowing into the retail sector on a relative basis.
“there's some money flowing in there, not in a huge way, but on a relative basis”
Listen at 23:04
Money is flowing into the retail sector on a relative basis.
“there's some money flowing in there”
Listen at 23:04
SharkNinja has a technically attractive setup before earnings.
“that looks good to me”
Listen at 23:39
Large institutions generally rotate into other liquid stocks instead of moving fully to cash.
“the big institutions on balance, especially the mutual funds, can't go to cash. So they have to just rotate”
Listen at 25:05
Institutional flows favor stocks with large capitalization and high liquidity.
“there's this positive bias towards capitalization as well as liquidity”
Listen at 25:32
Negative Binance news amplified selling in Bitcoin and speculative stocks.
“it magnified the selling”
Listen at 26:54
Crypto losses can intensify selling in growth and speculative stocks as traders raise cash.
“it just snowballs on top of itself”
Listen at 28:03
eBay is a relatively attractive place to buy in the weak market.
“this seems like a place to go if you're dying to buy stocks”
Listen at 29:31
Investors should wait for eBay to confirm strength before buying.
“I would rather it just prove itself”
Listen at 30:45
Biotech and medical stocks are currently showing strong market performance.
“the biotech and medical theme is something that's really working in this market”
Listen at 32:01
Mike would buy Regeneron after several sideways days create a manageable entry.
“if this can go sideways for three, four, five days and give me an entry point, I'm going to be all over it”
Listen at 32:57
Investors should generally avoid buying stocks before earnings in this environment.
“unless you just love the stock and you really understood it, I wouldn't want to buy in front of earnings”
Listen at 34:41
Investors should generally avoid buying stocks before earnings in this environment.
“I wouldn't want to buy in front of earnings”
Listen at 34:46
Investors should watch CBOE and ICE rather than buy immediately.
“I would watch both of these and just see”
Listen at 35:16
SPY is likely to move sideways to lower in the near term.
“sideways to down is what would be normal and natural”
Listen at 37:07
“this looks like it could come down and test the lows here at the 24-400 type of area”
Listen at 37:29
SPY could rebound toward its regression-channel resistance or home-base area.
“my expectation would be. you know, a move up to at least the red dash line or minimum the home base area”
Listen at 39:10
The Nasdaq's technical structure is severely broken.
“that is broken beyond belief”
Listen at 39:25
A close below SPY's 749.60 support level would signal further downside.
“if you get a close below that, then it's lookout below”
Listen at 41:29
A Nasdaq break below its 200-day average would materially worsen its outlook.
“if this breaks through the 200-day, you know, it's going to look really bad”
Listen at 42:15
The 200-day moving average is the most important technical level.
“the 200-day is way more important than anything else out there, period”
Listen at 44:52
Weak Webby RSI conditions are associated with choppy trading.
“When it's not a wall of blue, that's probably when you're going to get chopped up.”
Listen at 50:18
The Nasdaq is not yet at an extreme capitulation level by Mike's indicator.
“we're nowhere near that through this lens”
Listen at 51:41
The average stock's indicator has entered a constructive green zone.
“your average stock is in your green zone. So that's a better look”
Listen at 53:52
Investors should wait for a confirmed follow-through day before becoming bullish.
“you're looking for a follow-through day”
Listen at 54:21
Investors should wait for a rally followed by confirmation at least four days later.
“you want to have a rally day. We need a rally day first. Then you wait four or more days after that for that rally to be confirmed.”
Listen at 54:27
Mike would become highly concerned if Nasdaq breaks its 200-day average without support.
“if it just slices through it like it's not there, doesn't get any support, then I'm going to get really concerned”
Listen at 55:06
Failure of Nasdaq support would likely pull SPY toward its 200-day average.
“if that can't hold, then it means SPY is most likely going to come down to its 200-day”
Listen at 55:16
Investors should remain flexible while responding to objective market conditions.
“you want to remain flexible, but you want to live in reality too”
Listen at 55:36
Investors should generally avoid holding stocks below their 200-day average.
“Certainly don't want anything that's underneath the 200 day.”
Listen at 56:00
Mike generally avoids buying stocks unless their relative-strength lines exceed moving averages.
“I'm not going to buy anything, with rare exceptions, unless that RS line is above those moving averages”
Listen at 56:23
Alissa is currently holding cash rather than market exposure.
“I'm in cash now”
Listen at 1:04:20
Alissa plans to remain flexible as market evidence develops.
“I'm going to remain flexible”
Listen at 1:05:19
Alissa will reenter after broad market improvement or stronger leadership appears.
“if we do see a big shift and the market's looking better, seeing leading stocks improve or maybe new leadership or more setups, then that's what's going to get me back in the market”
Listen at 1:05:28
Moving to cash can reduce emotional pressure and improve market reassessment.
“when you go to cash and you just walk away from your computer for a little bit, and you come back and you just look at things with fresh eyes, without any capital at risk, it can kind of calm you down”
Listen at 1:06:48
Investors can begin buying after three consecutive closes above the 21-day average.
“if you don't want to do any trades until your low is above your 21 day for three consecutive days and you close up, then you start buying”
Listen at 1:07:48
Reviewing the largest and most liquid stocks helps assess overall market conditions.
“play through those from the largest market cap on down and that'll give you a sense for what the general market is doing”
Listen at 1:08:47
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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