Sep 11, 2026 · 39 min
Inflation data meets the unfinished legacy of 9/11
CPI and National Security since 9/11
The episode connects an immediate debate over inflation and Federal Reserve policy with the enduring human, institutional, and security consequences of September 11.
- 1Energy prices drove much of the latest inflation increase, leaving policymakers to distinguish temporary pressure from broader reacceleration.
- 2The Federal Reserve faces pressure to clarify how incoming data and hawkish signals shape its policy reaction function.
- 3Conversations with Tom Esho, Jack Devine, and Joe Daniels trace recovery, evolving threats, and the work of preserving victims’ stories.
Don't miss
Joe Daniels describes how victims’ voicemails and firsthand accounts preserve the human record of September 11 for younger generations.
The brief
The episode opens with CPI expectations and a central policy question: are recent price pressures broadening, or are energy effects distorting the signal the Federal Reserve must read?
Headline inflation rose in line with estimates, while energy prices drove much of the increase; Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech sharpens the debate over the Fed’s reaction function.
Tom Esho discusses KBW’s recovery after September 11, including grief, rebuilding operations, supporting victims’ families, and preserving the firm’s culture after devastating losses.
Jack Devine widens the lens from the attacks to changing security threats, covering the Middle East, Iran, asymmetric warfare, drones, and artificial intelligence’s growing role in conflict.
Joe Daniels explains how the 9/11 Memorial and Museum uses victims’ voicemails and firsthand accounts to preserve memory for younger generations while helping revitalize Lower Manhattan.
Taken together, the conversations contrast a near-term test of economic judgment with a long-term test of institutional memory, security strategy, and civic recovery.
What was said on this episode
17 statements · 5 positive · 8 negative · 4 neutral
A 0.3% core CPI reading would require the Fed to hike in September.
“if you get something like 0.3%, that's a fairly balanced. 0.3% on core. I always look at the core inflation. You can pretty much see that the Fed is going to have to do a hike in September.”
Listen at 3:00
PPI should not be treated as a direct Federal Reserve signal.
“you have to be really careful before you start interpreting that as as a. as a Fed signal per se”
Listen at 5:12
Energy conditions and uncertainty about Warsh drive long-end yield pricing.
“the long end of the curve, in my view, is driven by two things more so than the debt, which one is the energy story, as you said, and the other one is market uncertainty about what Warsh wants to do”
Listen at 5:22
Warsh has not clearly articulated how policy responds to calm inflation.
“The problem with Warsh is he wants to have that. He wanted to actually have that optionality, and he wasn't able to really necessarily articulate what does he do in a situation. where inflation comes in relatively calmly.”
Listen at 8:50
Warsh has not adequately explained why the Fed should hike rather than hold.
“Why hike now? It's a question and not something that Warsh has really been able to, has really discussed. Why not hold?”
Listen at 9:18
Warsh should clarify which scenarios would produce a hold or hike.
“He needs to, if he wants to have optionality, provide a much more fulsome picture of which scenarios could lead to a hold, which scenarios could lead to a hike.”
Listen at 9:40
The United States should have relied on covert action after 9/11.
“My own view was we probably should stick with covert action.”
Listen at 21:06
The United States should not have entered the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.
“I'm disappointed, if you will, in the historical sense that we didn't stick with that instead of getting involved in the two wars.”
Listen at 21:21
Iran and its regional allies are substantially weakened.
“Iran itself is physically weakened. Its nuclear capabilities have been marginalized. Hezbollah, its strongest ally, the leadership has been wiped out. Hamas has been destroyed.”
Listen at 22:09
Regime change in Iran was not realistically achievable without ground forces.
“There were no reasons to believe that a regime change was possible.”
Listen at 23:38
The Iran conflict will likely return to warfare rather than reach meaningful negotiation.
“I don't think we're going to get... to a meaningful negotiation and i think the outcome will probably be will return to warfare to try and finish”
Listen at 24:02
Covert action is preferable to war for addressing the Iran conflict.
“I'd like to use covert action rather than war.”
Listen at 24:34
Drones have fundamentally changed modern warfare.
“One of the biggest things is, I think, is the introduction of drones. And the combination has changed warfare. It has changed the game completely.”
Listen at 24:49
Drones have fundamentally changed modern warfare.
“the introduction of drones. And the combination has changed warfare. It has changed the game completely.”
Listen at 24:52
Artificial intelligence and emerging technologies will dramatically change the world.
“The world is going to change dramatically.”
Listen at 25:33
The world will remain geopolitically disorderly for several years.
“I think we're going to have an untidy world for a few years.”
Listen at 25:37
The international system will return to bipolarity centered on China and the United States.
“I'd say we'll be back to a bipolar world of China and the United States.”
Listen at 26:05
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.