Sep 2, 2026 · 1h 5m
Investors confront AI uncertainty without another bubble call
The Next Michael Burry (EP. 480)
The episode tests how to reason about AI, markets, jobs, and the economy when confident forecasts are more compelling than reliable.
- 1AI could reshape productivity, inflation, rates, and employment without producing either a miracle or an immediate crash.
- 2Market narratives can reverse quickly, making technological disruption difficult to price and confident bubble calls especially tempting.
- 3Housing, consumer spending, corporate profits, and speculative trading offer competing signals about the economy’s underlying resilience.
Don't miss
The hosts turn Kevin Warsh’s remarks into a broader argument that acknowledging uncertainty is more persuasive than pretending to forecast AI precisely.
The brief
Ben Carlson and Michael Batnick open with the AI capital-spending bubble debate, questioning whether the boom is headed for a crash or simply lasting longer than skeptics expect.
They argue for a middle ground: AI may alter productivity, inflation, interest rates, and employment without delivering either spectacular growth or a historic collapse.
Kevin Warsh’s remarks become a case study in forecasting limits, while the violent rebound in software stocks shows how quickly market narratives can reverse.
The hosts examine profits, jobs, data centers, housing, consumer resilience, and leveraged trading, finding evidence that resists both sweeping optimism and easy pessimism.
The episode’s sharpest tension is between uncertainty and attention: confident commentators attract audiences, but the hosts prefer a baseline view that leaves room to be wrong.
After the market debate, the conversation turns to movies, television, youth sports, travel, and rising everyday prices without resolving AI’s central uncertainty.
What was said on this episode
30 statements · 14 positive · 10 negative · 2 mixed · 4 neutral
The Giants could win six or seven games this season.
“This could be the Giants year. We might win six games, maybe seven.”
Listen at 2:13
Without an AI-driven downturn, no recession is more likely this decade.
“If AI doesn't sink us, it's a higher probability event that we don't have a recession the rest of this decade than we do.”
Listen at 5:56
The U.S. will not have a recession this decade absent major shocks or AI-capex collapse.
“Unless a meteor strikes or the AI CapEx story completely falls out of bed, we're not going to have a recession this decade.”
Listen at 6:09
An AI-related bear market will occur eventually.
“there will be an AI bear market at some point.”
Listen at 10:52
Federal Reserve forecasts of the future are not meaningful.
“I just, I don't think the Fed giving a forecast of the future is meaningful in any way.”
Listen at 11:29
AI will produce repeated swings in corporate hiring and layoffs.
“This is what's going to happen with AI. There's so much back and forth.”
Listen at 15:43
Active investing through major technological disruption is very difficult.
“It's really hard to invest actively through mega disruption.”
Listen at 16:05
The software-stock rebound could easily be a dead-cat bounce.
“this could be a dead cat bounce easily.”
Listen at 17:18
Investors should maintain a baseline view while recognizing alternative outcomes.
“This is the baseline that I think will happen. I think this is the most probable outcome.”
Listen at 18:32
S&P 493 net margins rose to 13.6% from below 12% in 2024.
“The net margin has exploded. to 13.6% up from like less than 12 in 2024”
Listen at 21:27
S&P 493 net margins are projected to approach 15% by Q4 2027.
“It's projected by Q4 of 2027 to be almost 15%.”
Listen at 22:01
Recent asset-management acquisitions indicate bull-market behavior.
“This is all total bull market behavior.”
Listen at 24:43
These asset-management acquisition patterns do not occur in bear markets.
“This stuff obviously doesn't happen in a bear market.”
Listen at 24:55
Another 20% market gain would approach late-1990s return levels.
“if we get another 20% year this year, we really are approaching late 90s levels in terms of returns.”
Listen at 25:58
The S&P 500 dividend yield is slightly below 1%, at 98 basis points.
“The dividend yield on the S&P 500 is now a touch below 1%. 98 basis points.”
Listen at 27:07
Korean leveraged-ETF turnover fell nearly to zero from almost $50 billion in one week.
“it went. basically to zero from a peak of almost $50 billion in, oh, that was just in a week.”
Listen at 28:57
The U.S. stock market’s long-run annual real return is 7%.
“the annual real return on the U.S. stock market is 7%.”
Listen at 30:18
Investors are more concerned about rate direction than the current rate level.
“I think people are maybe rightly concerned more about the direction than the level.”
Listen at 35:10
AI could become one of the most significant technologies of this generation.
“This has the potential to be one of the biggest technologies of our lifetime.”
Listen at 37:16
AI has had only a negligible employment impact so far.
“There's, it's basically a rounding error. the impact AI has had on jobs.”
Listen at 38:09
People will eventually form personal relationships with AI assistants.
“I don't know how far away we are from people having... the relationships with their AI in their ear, like her, but that's coming too.”
Listen at 39:42
Technology firms should locate data centers away from populated areas.
“Why can't these tech firms spend a little more money and just put it where no one is around?”
Listen at 41:14
Housing could cushion the next downturn if interest rates decline.
“is housing going to either be A shock absorber in the next downturn if rates do fall.”
Listen at 42:13
A housing recovery could affect inflation before the broader economy recovers.
“what happens to inflation if housing bounces back first?”
Listen at 42:20
Gen Z home purchases will surge in the 2030s.
“In the 2030s, there's going to be a massive come up for Gen Z buying houses.”
Listen at 44:34
Gen Z homeownership will eventually reach levels comparable to older generations.
“They're going to be right where everyone else is.”
Listen at 44:38
Affirm and Klarna were overvalued, and their valuations subsequently collapsed.
“The valuations of these companies make no sense. And people were dead right about that because Affirming Klarna crashed.”
Listen at 47:22
Buy-now-pay-later usage did not prove consumers were financially exhausted.
“where people were wrong were it was a sign that the consumer is totally tapped out.”
Listen at 47:36
Affirm’s 30-day delinquencies are well below 3%.
“the 30-day delinquencies are very low, well below 3%.”
Listen at 48:14
Ben Carlson considers season three of Tires exceptionally good.
“Season three, I thought, was like a revelation. Like, bravo, Shane Gillis. This show was great.”
Listen at 58:51
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Books & mentions
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