Oct 28, 2026 · 25 min
Investors debate whether AI panic masks a global spending cycle
Why Wall Street is dead wrong about the AI tech panic
The discussion weighs whether falling technology valuations signal genuine economic weakness or a selective reset within a still-expanding investment cycle.
- 1AI and semiconductor demand may remain strong even as investors become more selective about technology earnings.
- 2Higher rates pressure housing and bond markets while Treasury issuance changes who supports government debt.
- 3A barbell portfolio can pair near-term Treasury income with selective exposure to global equities, energy, and banks.
Don't miss
Jay Pelosky argues that semiconductor and memory stocks may be undervalued despite strong demand from hyperscalers.
The brief
Kenny frames the conversation around the Federal Reserve’s rate path, retirement spending, Treasury yields, and how investors can manage near-term volatility.
Alex Giuliano and Jay Pelosky contrast a hot AI-driven economy with a weaker traditional consumer economy, then examine mortgage pressure and housing affordability.
The panel links oil, elections, Iran policy, and Treasury issuance to market stability, including Jay’s view that hedge funds now play a larger role among government-debt buyers.
As investors rotate toward healthcare and other defensive sectors, Jay argues semiconductor and memory stocks may be undervalued despite strong hyperscaler demand and forthcoming evidence from major chipmakers.
Alex’s barbell strategy pairs short-term Treasury income with selective equities, while the guests identify opportunities from South Korea and Poland to Latin America and Brazil.
The episode closes with a global spending supercycle centered on AI, defense, and climate investment, alongside a case for selective growth through 2030.
What was said on this episode
17 statements · 12 positive · 1 negative · 4 neutral
Two-year Treasuries offer an opportunity to lock in current yields.
“you have an opportunity to lock in at that level for two years”
Listen at 1:39
The Fed will deliver between one and two rate hikes over the next year.
“i'm in the camp of somewhere between like one and two”
Listen at 2:24
A 25-basis-point hike will not materially affect the AI-buildout economy.
“25 basis points not going to really impact that at all”
Listen at 3:44
The midterms are unlikely to materially affect oil prices through Iran policy.
“i don't think the midterms are necessarily going to have much of an impact because people talk about maybe trump attacking iran more aggressively”
Listen at 7:24
Equity markets typically rebound within one or two weeks after major political events.
“the initial reaction tends to be immediately rebounded typically within the first week or two after that takes place”
Listen at 7:53
Interest rates are unlikely to make a large move in either direction.
“highly unlikely to kind of have a big move up or down”
Listen at 10:47
Treasury ownership has shifted substantially toward hedge funds.
“the buyer base has shifted considerably”
Listen at 11:22
AI adoption can increase bank profitability through operational efficiency.
“having the opportunity to have AI go through the ecosystem and the banks gives them an opportunity to increase their profitability on that side”
Listen at 12:48
Semiconductor and memory stocks are trading at unusually low forward valuations.
“the semi-chip makers and the memory stocks in particular trading at ridiculous forward PEs”
Listen at 14:59
A barbell strategy can earn income from short-term Treasuries while limiting Treasury-market risk.
“I'm getting paid on the short end, right? Not taking too much risk in the treasury market.”
Listen at 18:31
The Polish ETF EPOL has risen over 20% year to date, doubling the S&P return.
“it's done great it's up over 20 year to date it's doubled the s p return”
Listen at 19:53
Nuclear power represents a major opportunity for the United States.
“I think nuclear is a tremendous opportunity for the country”
Listen at 20:58
Fossil-fuel investments have substantially outperformed renewable-energy investments this year.
“fossil fuels for all the angst have massively outperformed this year”
Listen at 21:53
Equities can continue rising if earnings growth, inflation, and oil prices do not all worsen together.
“The absence of having all those three things at the same time, I think provides an opportunity for the equity market to continue to go up.”
Listen at 23:47
Global spending on AI, defense, and climate is unprecedented and sustainable for years.
“that spending is unprecedented and is sustainable for years”
Listen at 24:06
A global growth cycle driven by AI, defense, and climate spending will continue through 2030.
“we expect to play out through 2030”
Listen at 24:13
“you're not going to have a recession”
Listen at 24:33
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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