Sep 4, 2026 · 1h 21m
Investors test whether market leadership is returning
Are High-Octane Stocks Back In Favor? Sandisk, Robinhood, Dell In Focus
The episode offers a framework for judging whether volatile gains signal a durable uptrend or another short-lived rally.
- 1Follow-through signals, moving averages, breadth, and leadership help distinguish a genuine trend change from market noise.
- 2Selective strength in semiconductors, memory chips, NVIDIA, and Dell contrasts with the risks of chasing sharp advances.
- 3Bitcoin, Robinhood, and international markets broaden the risk-appetite picture while Webby RSI adds a measure of trend quality.
Don't miss
Mike Webster explains how the Webby RSI uses ATR-adjusted distance from a stock’s low to its 21-day moving average to gauge trend strength.
The brief
Alissa Coram and Mike Webster assess volatile indexes through a trend-change checklist built around follow-through days, the 21-day moving average, breadth, and leadership.
The central question is whether earnings reactions and improving market breadth reflect constructive buying, or merely a temporary shift in market character.
Semiconductors, NVIDIA, Sandisk, Moderna, Robinhood, and Dell show why selectivity matters: powerful moves can signal leadership while still carrying sharp reversal risk.
Bitcoin and IBIT add a measure of crypto-driven risk appetite, while the hosts use RSP, international markets, and weekly charts to widen the market view.
Mike Webster’s Webby RSI offers a practical way to separate powerful early trends from choppier conditions by comparing a stock’s low with its 21-day average.
What was said on this episode
32 statements · 17 positive · 7 negative · 6 mixed · 2 neutral
A breakout above the identified resistance level is a buy signal.
“If it breaks out from there, it's a buy.”
Listen at 5:52
A market base will eventually break either upward or downward.
“It always will, because it's got to go one way or another.”
Listen at 11:46
The market may break either upward or downward from its base.
“We're hoping for the upside, but if it goes to the downside, we've got our rules of how to do that.”
Listen at 11:49
The Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates steady or raise them slightly.
“We're in a position to either keep things the same or raise them just a little bit to try to tampen the inflation that we're dealing with.”
Listen at 13:26
The current earnings environment is broadly healthy.
“But I think on balance, the earnings environment is fine.”
Listen at 16:29
Corporate earnings growth is not currently a problem.
“But as far as growth, we don't have a growth problem.”
Listen at 17:11
RSP's broken regression channel signals changed market character, not necessarily collapse.
“That doesn't mean that it falls apart. It just means the character has changed.”
Listen at 17:50
Trading Moderna requires reducing other positions because its volatility can force exits.
“So what do you do with this? If you're going to trade it, you want to tone down some other positions in your account because it's so volatile and it could whip you out.”
Listen at 22:44
A stock rising 20% in one day could subsequently fall 30%.
“if a stock moves up 20% in a day, I always say, expected it could go down 50% more than that.”
Listen at 23:49
The market is currently in an AI bubble.
“Yes, we're in an AI bubble.”
Listen at 26:55
NVIDIA weakness would undermine the prospects of weaker AI stocks.
“if this can't work out now if it just bases that's that's okay but if it were to fall apart let's go back to the daily and Let's say it were to completely fall apart. That's telling you that the best stock out there in this space from a fundamental standpoint or one of the best, if that can't go, then why would some also ran be able to go?”
Listen at 27:13
Bitcoin has broken out from a cup-with-handle pattern and remains above breakout levels.
“I see a cup with handle that it already broke out of yesterday. So it's not broken down from there.”
Listen at 29:19
IBIT remains constructive above weekly lows but returns to base-building below them.
“if it stays above the lows of this week you're still fine if it goes back below that then you're still in this basic uh uh period”
Listen at 30:33
Salesforce's stock is beginning to improve after roughly a year of weakness.
“The stock has been a dog for a year or so, but now it looks like it's changing its character.”
Listen at 32:16
Sandisk is likely to break higher from its current setup.
“I think it's going to break higher.”
Listen at 35:15
Sandisk could fail and gap down 20% after the weekend.
“this could still fail. Like we could come in Tuesday, it could be gapped down 20%.”
Listen at 36:23
Historical leading stocks declined about 72% on average after rolling over.
“when they rolled all of our model book stocks, they would come down on average about 72%.”
Listen at 37:01
Memory stocks currently provide strong exposure to the AI theme without leverage.
“if you are trying to get leverage without using leverage on the AI space. you're trading the memory space right now”
Listen at 40:55
Early gains in a trade are not meaningful until the position is secured.
“until the trade is locked in it doesn't mean anything”
Listen at 41:09
Robinhood's breakout chart currently looks technically strong.
“I just think it looks gorgeous”
Listen at 44:28
Robinhood's 2% decline after a large move indicates strong price action.
“The fact that it held up after that big move yesterday being only down 2%, I look at that as a big win.”
Listen at 44:42
Stocks that break out without an investor become a priority watchlist for later entries.
“when you have stocks that have broken out without you, which should happen all the time, I mean, that's just the reality of trading because you can't kiss all the babies and you can't buy everything, that then when it moves, that becomes your... your best shopping list”
Listen at 48:28
Investors should not chase a stock immediately after a large weekly advance.
“You don't just go and buy it here because it's up a bunch on the week and it looks good and looks like it's going to go higher.”
Listen at 49:04
Michael Dell is exceptionally capable and among the best business leaders.
“I think Michael Dell is just a genius and such a hard worker and he's just, he's one of the best out there.”
Listen at 50:17
Dell's relative-strength line shows it outperformed the S&P during AI weakness.
“because that tells you exactly what you were just saying because it's versus the S&P now”
Listen at 52:46
Dell should consolidate above 500 before offering a new entry; investors should not chase it.
“This is not in position right now. Now that it has gone back above 500, if it can form something sideways here, preferably living above 500, then that'll give you a chance to get into it. But I wouldn't be stretching up here to buy it right now.”
Listen at 54:27
The S&P 500 weekly chart suggests sideways-to-higher movement next week.
“A sideways to higher is... the image that it gives you.”
Listen at 56:02
The Nasdaq has a positive-to-sideways outlook but lacks a compelling breakout signal.
“This one actually gives a little bit of a better look, but it's not compelling where it looks like it's just going to break up to that 27,000, but still positive to sideways.”
Listen at 56:39
Strong early trends show lows two to three ATRs above the 21-day moving average.
“In a nice trend like we had over here, you will see that move up to two or three ATRs where your low is above your 21 day. That's the power that you want to see at the beginning of a trend.”
Listen at 1:05:37
The international-market ETF VXUS appears ready for another upward breakout.
“this looks like it's ready to break out and go on another leg.”
Listen at 1:10:22
The current market may eventually resemble late-1999 market conditions.
“with the market, we're set up. And again, ultimately, I think we end up with the last tail end of 1999.”
Listen at 1:13:35
Current market pessimism may force sidelined investors to chase prices later.
“I think that's a good thing. Because then those are the people they're going to have to chase later.”
Listen at 1:15:21
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.