Oct 6, 2026 · 1h 10m
Karsan sees crisis forcing Washington into stock markets
Cem Karsan: The Big Print Is Coming and the Government Will Buy Stocks
The episode examines whether debt, geopolitical rivalry, and political incentives could drive the United States toward direct market intervention and renewed monetary expansion.
- 1Karsan argues that weakening breadth and mounting debt leave headline equity indexes more vulnerable than they appear.
- 2He forecasts a rapid 25% to 35% equity decline before policymakers respond with forceful liquidity and market-support measures.
- 3Negative real rates could favor equities, gold, Bitcoin, and volatility hedges while intensifying debates over monetary control.
Don't miss
Karsan lays out his forecast for a rapid 25% to 35% equity decline followed by a forceful policy response.
The brief
Cem Karsan argues that the United States is becoming an increasingly active market participant, with direct stock purchases potentially joining its policy toolkit.
His case rests on mounting debt, fragile market breadth, protectionism, and competition with China—pressures that could make aggressive intervention politically attractive.
Karsan forecasts a short, violent equity sell-off of roughly 25% to 35%, followed by new facilities and liquidity measures designed to stabilize markets.
The conversation links debt monetization and negative real rates to a possible regime favoring gold, Bitcoin, and structural inflation hedges.
Karsan stresses that this is a forecast of policymakers’ incentives, not certainty, and says China, markets, or other powerful actors could disrupt it.
What was said on this episode
31 statements · 16 positive · 14 negative · 1 neutral
The U.S. government will buy stocks within three to six months.
“buy stocks. What most people don't realize is that's what's coming and not coming in two years or three years or five years. It's coming in the next three to six months.”
Listen at 0:16
A major crisis will occur.
“We are going to have something that is a major crisis.”
Listen at 0:35
The U.S. is moving toward government market control within nine months.
“I'm telling you we're going there in the next nine months.”
Listen at 0:47
U.S. national debt is unsustainable.
“We have an increasing national debt, which is unsustainable”
Listen at 5:56
Global public and private equities total about $300 trillion.
“Right now, equities, the equity market, public and private combined, is about $300 trillion.”
Listen at 6:26
Sixty percent of S&P 500 stocks are down at least 20%.
“60 of the s p 500 right now at all-time highs almost right with the market at all-time highs is in a bear market is down 20”
Listen at 9:20
Forty-five percent of S&P 500 stocks have negative beta to the index.
“45% of the S&P 500 has a negative beta to the S&P 500.”
Listen at 9:39
The U.S. will print money and buy stocks to address structural pressures and compete with China.
“the only way to out-compete China, to monetize your debt, to deal with a market that's too big to fail, to deal with the populism at hand, is quite simply, one there's one way out by the way go put it in your favorite ai model put those pressures in see what it says done plenty of different modeling thinking through this the incentive force one outcome and people know this deep down which is obviously a print money because it's a golden goose but two buy stocks”
Listen at 16:20
The U.S. will purchase equities through a sovereign wealth fund.
“we're going to do it in the form of a sovereign wealth fund”
Listen at 17:42
The U.S. government will take small ownership stakes in companies.
“we're going to start taking small ownership and driving investment”
Listen at 19:29
A post-election crisis window will last until approximately June next year.
“post-crisis, post-election, you have this window, and it really lasts until maybe June of next year”
Listen at 23:14
Gold will perform well under large-scale monetary intervention.
“Gold will do well in this circumstance”
Listen at 34:41
Policymakers will create negative real interest rates.
“The whole game is to create negative real rates.”
Listen at 37:54
Policymakers will buy stocks during debt monetization.
“this time around they're going to buy stocks”
Listen at 38:50
Structural inflation hedges will strongly outperform over five to ten years.
“you are going to see tremendous outperformance over the next five ten years”
Listen at 41:25
Crypto has approximately twenty years of runway before facing major constraints.
“I think that runway is 20 years. I think it's a long time.”
Listen at 48:58
Bitcoin may become part of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund under this administration.
“In the short to medium term, will it be part of a sovereign wealth fund? I think under this administration, you know, probably.”
Listen at 51:30
Crypto will support retail stock buying over the next two to three years.
“particularly over the next two three years under this administration it's not a question for me”
Listen at 52:22
A market rug pull could occur early next year after crypto enthusiasm peaks.
“i could see everybody getting on board here really like piling in because things are working thinking okay now we're going to go to 200 and right at that moment rug pull early next year in the market”
Listen at 53:42
The expected market decline is approximately 25% to 35%.
“I've been trying to say closer to 25, 35 is my base case.”
Listen at 54:32
The market decline will last one to three months.
“it will ultimately be three months or less, probably one or two months”
Listen at 54:47
The market will form a V-shaped bottom after the decline.
“but it will be a v bottom”
Listen at 54:55
The U.S. sovereign wealth fund could reach $5 trillion within two years.
“can it be five trillion dollars within two years yes”
Listen at 55:52
The next major crisis could involve artificial intelligence.
“it could even extend to an issue related to AI”
Listen at 56:28
An AI-related cyber or digital breakdown could trigger a major crisis.
“a real crisis something that feels like a real crisis could really come from cyber digital breakdown things happening as a function of ai”
Listen at 59:38
The proposed U.S. strategy could end U.S. hegemony within three years.
“this could lead to the, you know. u.s you know the death of u.s hegemony within the next three years”
Listen at 1:02:40
The proposed intervention will likely not be executed if it has not begun by April through June.
“if this does not happen by start happening by i would say uh april may june i don't believe they're going to try and execute this”
Listen at 1:04:47
Investors should consider carefully positioned equity put options.
“i think some well positioned uh you know equity puts”
Listen at 1:06:40
Foreign-exchange volatility is substantially underpriced.
“i do think that fx vol is dramatically underpriced”
Listen at 1:07:21
Commodity-backed currencies are likely to outperform in this market.
“maybe in swiss francs maybe in norwegian corona maybe in australian dollars right maybe in canadian dollars um there's a lot of interesting um commodity-backed currencies that are likely to dramatically outperform”
Listen at 1:07:37
Bitcoin is expected to perform well over the next three years.
“i do like it more multi-year next three years a lot”
Listen at 1:08:02
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.