Oct 28, 2026 · 1h 22m
Listen from 1:09:33
Listen at 1:09:33
Lula’s comeback tests democracy’s resilience
Democracy Wins in Brazil and Serbia
The episode connects Brazil’s close election to a wider question of whether decentralized democratic movements can withstand entrenched authoritarian politics.
- 1Lula rebuilt a losing campaign through voter coalition-building, strategic adjustments, and decentralized WhatsApp organizing.
- 2Serbia’s student movement shows anti-corruption politics can mobilize the center-left without relying on a single dominant leader.
- 3Brazil’s election victory remains fragile as Bolsonaro’s movement retains congressional strength and democratic opponents face sustained pressure.
Don't miss
Pedro Telles describes how decentralized WhatsApp groups and alternative networks helped pro-Lula organizers overcome platform bans and mobilize voters.
The brief
Tommy Vietor and Ben Rhodes open on an unusually optimistic question: can democratic movements still defeat entrenched political machines? Brazil supplies the episode’s central test.
Lula da Silva’s runoff victory followed a discouraging first round, but support from other candidates’ voters, campaign changes, and WhatsApp organizing rebuilt his coalition.
The hosts reject baseless election-denial claims while stressing Lula’s governing constraints: a right-wing congressional majority, economic pressure, and the Bolsonaro family’s continued influence.
Serbia’s decentralized student protests broaden the lesson, showing how anti-corruption movements can challenge entrenched power and claim political ground often ceded to the right.
Pedro Telles explains how pro-Lula organizers worked around Meta bans and removals through WhatsApp groups and alternative networks, turning a close election into a grassroots mobilization.
The episode closes on democratic uncertainty across Israel, Venezuela, and the United Nations, where elections and nominations reveal both openings and persistent power politics.
What was said on this episode
58 statements · 27 positive · 26 negative · 2 mixed · 3 neutral
Lula decisively defeated Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s presidential runoff.
“Lula managed to get like more than 10 million additional votes and he decisively beat Flavio by 51.8% to 48.2%.”
Listen at 7:12
Lula’s Army WhatsApp group reached roughly 10 million people, about 7% of voters.
“grew this 10 million WhatsApp, 10 million person WhatsApp group called Lula's Army. 7% of the electorate was like in this WhatsApp group.”
Listen at 7:52
Lula’s digital organizers became successful enough to attract foreign political leaders’ interest.
“they were so successful that, like, Claudia Sheinbaum and Pedro Sanchez are, like, summoning them to their capitals to be like, teach us.”
Listen at 8:08
About 75% of first-round voters for other candidates backed Lula in the runoff.
“But about 75% of those voters went to Lula.”
Listen at 8:43
About 75% of first-round third-party voters supported Lula in the runoff.
“about 75% of those voters went to Lula.”
Listen at 8:43
Lula is a generational political talent and Brazil’s first four-time elected president.
“Lula is an icon. He's an icon of the left. He's the first person to be elected four times as president of Brazil. He is like a generational political talent.”
Listen at 12:26
Lula successfully mobilized his supporters to vote.
“He turned his fucking people out.”
Listen at 13:08
Lula’s coalition overcame platform bias, Bolsonaro, Trump, and regional rightward momentum.
“they overcame that. So they beat big tech. They beat Bolsonaro. They beat Trump. They beat the trend in Latin American politics of things moving to the right.”
Listen at 15:21
Brazil’s pro-Lula movement overcame Meta, Bolsonaro, Trump, and regional rightward trends.
“they beat big tech. They beat Bolsonaro. They beat Trump. They beat the trend in Latin American politics of things moving to the right.”
Listen at 15:22
Brazilian assets fell sharply after Lula’s election victory.
“Brazil's stock market dropped 14% on the news, like the main index and the real dropped 8% against the dollar.”
Listen at 16:42
Lula will face significant fiscal problems funding his campaign proposals.
“Lula. He's going to have some real fiscal financial problems. They're going to have to pay for the things he proposed in this election.”
Listen at 18:01
Lula’s victory will encourage Latin American opposition parties.
“This will be a wind in the sails to opposition parties in all these other countries in Latin America that are facing right wing governments.”
Listen at 20:52
Bolsonaro-led logging expansion could irreversibly destroy the Amazon.
“if, like, Bolsonaro wins and they open this thing up to logging, like, we've seen the reports that you could have an irreversible destruction of the Amazon.”
Listen at 21:05
Bolsonaro’s victory could have caused irreversible Amazon destruction through expanded logging.
“we've seen the reports that you could have an irreversible destruction of the Amazon.”
Listen at 21:10
The Bolsonaro family posed an unusually serious threat to Brazilian democracy.
“The Bolsonaro family was uniquely dangerous.”
Listen at 22:00
Young organizers will need to succeed Lula and regenerate Brazil’s political left.
“what's going to happen next is some of these young people that helped organize this campaign are going to have to take the torch from Lula because he's not running again.”
Listen at 22:31
A leaderless student movement ended Aleksandar Vučić’s twelve-year rule in Serbia.
“President Aleksandr Vucic and his 12-year reign is now over. Vucic was deposed by a leaderless student movement.”
Listen at 27:22
Serbia’s student candidate list won roughly 135–140 parliamentary seats versus Vučić’s party’s 105.
“the student list of candidates got about... between 135 and 140 seats in the 250-seat parliament, while Vucic's party got 105”
Listen at 29:16
Anti-corruption messaging can mobilize voters in contemporary politics.
“an anti-corruption mobilization message is one lesson.”
Listen at 31:32
Youth movements can achieve full political power.
“a youth movement can go all the way”
Listen at 32:13
Far-right political victories are not inevitable, including in difficult national contexts.
“there's nothing inevitable about these far-right politics, even in the countries where it's hardest to overcome.”
Listen at 33:34
Progressive movements should center corruption and connect it to people’s poor outcomes.
“focus like a laser on corruption. Like the democracy issues are corruption issues.”
Listen at 35:11
Political movements should give young people reasons to participate.
“Give young people a reason to participate.”
Listen at 35:20
Populism can be reform-oriented rather than far-right.
“populism can come with a reform-minded message. It's not a far-right message.”
Listen at 36:13
Arab parties may win as many as 17 Israeli parliamentary seats.
“they may have gotten up to 17 seats”
Listen at 40:09
Eisenkot cannot form a government without Arab parties.
“he can't do it without the Arab parties.”
Listen at 40:34
An Eisenkot government would likely reduce West Bank aggression.
“The aggression in the West Bank is likely to be curbed.”
Listen at 42:38
Gadi Eisenkot would be a better prime minister than Netanyahu.
“it would be objectively better if Eisenkot was prime minister”
Listen at 42:53
Palestinians would experience marginally better conditions under Eisenkot than Netanyahu.
“life will get marginally less bad for the Palestinians, I think, under an ice and coat.”
Listen at 43:04
Collective punishment constitutes a war crime.
“Collective punishment is a war crime.”
Listen at 43:55
Rubio’s Venezuela policy is intended to mobilize Cuban and Venezuelan voters in Florida.
“I honestly think that's what's happening. It's like we're just like throwing a bunch of churn to the right wing Cubans and Venezuelans in Florida.”
Listen at 52:05
Trump’s Venezuela policy is primarily motivated by obtaining Venezuelan oil.
“all Trump seems to care about is getting the oil.”
Listen at 52:57
Trump is indifferent to whether Venezuela holds elections.
“I don't think Trump cares whether there's an election in Venezuela.”
Listen at 52:59
Trump’s Venezuela policy prioritizes oil revenue over democracy.
“Trump has not said a word about democracy since the House of Maduro. It's just this oil. It's just the money coming in.”
Listen at 53:47
The UAE is supplying arms to Sudan’s RSF militia.
“the UAE is funneling arms to the RSF in Sudan.”
Listen at 55:50
The UAE seeks maximum global political influence through the candidacy.
“the UAE wants maximum political influence around the world.”
Listen at 57:25
The UAE is seeking maximum global political influence through Nusseibeh’s candidacy.
“the UAE wants maximum political influence around the world”
Listen at 57:25
People from governments like the UAE should not become UN secretary-general.
“I just don't think anybody that comes from a government like the UAE's should”
Listen at 59:14
- Pedro Telleson Decentralized pro-Lula organizingPositive1:05:02
Spontaneous decentralized organizing energized Lula’s supporters and contributed to victory.
“loads of spontaneous, organic, decentralized organizing started happening and really energized people. And here we are. In the end, it worked out.”
Listen at 1:05:02
Lula advanced popular policies during the runoff campaign.
“Lula really started pushing for a series of policies that he was able to approve during the runoff that had high popular support.”
Listen at 1:06:38
Lula increased the Bolsa Familia cash-transfer program during the runoff.
“He also secured an increase in the cash transfer program Bosa Familia that reaches millions of Brazilians.”
Listen at 1:07:12
Lula’s Army WhatsApp channel reached nearly 11 million people by election day.
“this channel became a channel with nearly 11 million people by election day.”
Listen at 1:09:33
Lula’s Army organized supporters through daily digital missions.
“every day, he would be there sending people missions”
Listen at 1:09:39
WhatsApp reaches a different audience from algorithm-mediated Instagram.
“The people you reach on WhatsApp is different from those you're reaching in algorithm-mediated Instagram, for example.”
Listen at 1:09:59
Investigative reporting kept Flavio Bolsonaro politically defensive during the runoff.
“investigative journalists that really managed to, day after day, be breaking news stories about Flavio's scandals, Flavio's complicated relationships, Flavio's relationship with criminals or criminal activities that kept Flavio on the defensive.”
Listen at 1:11:03
- Pedro Telleson Control ZNegative1:14:09
Control Z received over 1,000 reports of pro-Lula account restrictions.
“In a couple of days, there were more than a thousand reports from people”
Listen at 1:14:09
- Pedro Telleson Pro-Lula content creatorsNegative1:14:11
Over one thousand pro-Lula creators reported account bans or content restrictions.
“there were more than a thousand reports from people, like showing, explaining how their content or accounts were being banned.”
Listen at 1:14:11
- Pedro Telleson Meta political advertising in BrazilNegative1:14:58
Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign paid 33–40% less than Lula’s for comparable Meta advertising reach.
“There's evidence that Flavio's campaign paid 33% to 40% less than Lula's campaign for advertising to reach kind of the same audiences.”
Listen at 1:14:58
- Pedro Telleson Meta’s election systems in BrazilNegative1:16:11
Meta’s systems had an inherent pro-Flavio bias that affected Lula’s campaign.
“it's very clear that there is an inherent bias. towards Flavio and that that impacted Lula's campaign.”
Listen at 1:16:11
Meta’s platform bias toward Flavio harmed Lula’s campaign.
“there is an inherent bias. towards Flavio and that that impacted Lula's campaign.”
Listen at 1:16:13
Meta should ultimately be held accountable for election-related platform bias.
“hopefully it's going to lead Meta to be held accountable.”
Listen at 1:16:21
Bolsonaro’s party holds one-third of Brazil’s Senate and one-quarter of its lower house.
“Bolsonaro's party alone has a third of the Senate and a fourth of the lower house.”
Listen at 1:17:26
- Pedro Telleson Brazilian far rightPositive1:17:43
Brazil’s far right is stronger than ever in Congress despite losing the presidency.
“they're in a very strong position in Congress, stronger than ever.”
Listen at 1:17:43
- Pedro Telleson Brazilian far rightNegative1:17:57
Brazil’s far right remains strong and organized after losing the presidency.
“they're still strong, they're still organized.”
Listen at 1:17:57
Lula is not expected to run for another presidential term.
“This was Lula's last dance”
Listen at 1:18:21
- Pedro Telleson Brazilian left after LulaMixed1:18:30
Lula’s departure will trigger competition among Brazilian leftists for succession.
“it is inevitable that among leftists, now people are going to start fighting for who is going to occupy the vacuum that Lula is going to leave.”
Listen at 1:18:30
- Pedro Telleson Brazilian democracy advocatesPositive1:19:38
Brazilian democracy advocates should remain more vigilant during Lula’s next term.
“We're not going to lower the guards in the same way that we did in the last four years.”
Listen at 1:19:38
- Pedro Telleson Brazilian left organizingPositive1:19:44
The close election should motivate Brazil’s left to sustain deeper, more consistent organizing.
“I hope that the lessons that we've learned from this tight election and from seeing these guys come back and almost get to power again is going to lead us to really go deeper and have more consistent efforts looking forward.”
Listen at 1:19:44
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Weekly email
State of the Pod, every Monday
The week's most-discussed names and stories from podcasts, with the moments behind them. Free, five minutes, unsubscribe in one click.