The Bulwark Daily
The Bulwark Daily

Oct 26, 2026 · 55 min

Midterm hopes meet authoritarian threats and Republican fractures

Bill Kristol: Beating Back the Authoritarians

The episode tests whether electoral resistance, public backlash, and state-level safeguards can constrain authoritarian politics before the midterms.

3 key takeaways
  1. 1Victories abroad and encouraging early-vote signals offer Democrats reasons for optimism, but neither guarantees a midterm breakthrough.
  2. 2The hosts warn that election interference, alleged corruption, and presidential power require resistance from institutions and voters.
  3. 3Republican positions on transgender rights, tariffs, and Trump’s renovations expose tensions between policy, loyalty, and accountability.

Don't miss

The hosts turn Trump’s extravagant White House renovations and Elon Musk’s threats into a broader case for impeachment and political accountability.

The brief

Tim Miller and Bill Kristol open with anti-authoritarian victories in Brazil and Serbia, asking whether the international far right can be pushed back before America’s midterms.

They examine proposed federal intervention in ballot administration, polling that shows resistance to election meddling, and whether state officials would defy such efforts.

Early-voting data offers clues but no verdict: party registration limits, turnout shifts, and modeling complicate readings of North Carolina and other states.

Kristol surveys long-shot Senate contests in South Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Florida, where turnout, spending, and candidate quality could produce surprises.

The conversation widens to Republican debates over transgender rights and tariffs, including Kansas farmers’ economic pain and the party’s continued support for Trump.

Trump’s gold-heavy White House renovations and Elon Musk’s threats become symbols of accountability questions, prompting the hosts to argue for impeachment or resignation.

What was said on this episode

18 statements · 7 positive · 10 negative · 1 neutral

  1. Bill Kristolon Serbia student-backed listPositive4:11

    A student-backed list defeated Serbia’s authoritarian 14-year ruler.

    “this list defeated the authoritarian 14-year ruler of Serbia”

    Listen at 4:11

  2. Bill Kristolon Federal Alaska election-certification lawsuitNegative8:06

    The federal Alaska election-certification lawsuit will fail.

    “I think it's going to fail”

    Listen at 8:06

  3. Bill Kristolon Alaska election interferenceNegative11:06

    Election interference is less likely to succeed in Alaska.

    “It's less likely to happen in Alaska”

    Listen at 11:06

  4. Bill Kristolon Texas election administrationNegative11:11

    Texas poses elevated election-interference risk.

    “Texas makes me nervous”

    Listen at 11:11

  5. Bill Kristolon Camp Lejeune compensation paymentsNegative14:50

    Trump likely cannot stop Camp Lejeune compensation payments through ordinary authority.

    “I don't think he actually could stop it unless he literally ordered the VA not to make these payments”

    Listen at 14:50

  6. Bill Kristolon Administration market conductNegative19:35

    The administration’s alleged market conduct constitutes obvious corruption.

    “this is just flat out, you know, obvious corruption and no one cares”

    Listen at 19:35

  7. Bill Kristolon Early-voting dataPositive22:24

    Early-voting data contains meaningful information about the electorate.

    “It is a real thing”

    Listen at 22:24

  8. Bill Kristolon Early-voting numbersPositive24:32

    Examining early-voting numbers is not foolish when assessing close races.

    “it's not, Foolish of people to look at it”

    Listen at 24:32

  9. Bill Kristolon South Carolina and Mississippi Senate racesPositive26:57

    Democrats could win one or both South Carolina and Mississippi Senate races.

    “I think one or both of those could come through”

    Listen at 26:57

  10. Bill Kristolon Florida Senate and governor racesNeutral28:05

    Florida’s Senate and governor races could be close.

    “I think Florida could be close”

    Listen at 28:05

  11. Bill Kristolon Florida governor’s racePositive28:08

    Jolly could win Florida’s governor’s race.

    “Jolly could win the governor's race”

    Listen at 28:08

  12. Bill Kristolon Louisiana Senate racePositive29:57

    Jamie Davis could win Louisiana’s Senate race.

    “I feel like Louisiana could be fantastic if he won”

    Listen at 29:57

  13. Bill Kristolon Transgender policy debatePositive35:34

    Candidates discussing transgender policy should begin with tolerance and respect.

    “I would at least want, and I think Turek does this. to begin every response with a strong statement of tolerance and respect.”

    Listen at 35:34

  14. Bill Kristolon Democratic campaign surrogatesNegative40:35

    Democratic candidates should generally avoid prominent national surrogates.

    “I'm a little on the side of keep them all out and make it about. you know, the candidate himself”

    Listen at 40:35

  15. Bill Kristolon Elon Musk statementNegative48:21

    The Bulwark should not be intimidated or impressed by Elon Musk’s statement.

    “we're not intimidated, and we're not impressed, really, by Elon's. pithiness of that statement”

    Listen at 48:21

  16. Bill Kristolon Elon MuskNegative48:49

    Elon Musk should be accountable for alleged corrupt government dealings.

    “you should be accountable when you spend... when you have all these corrupt dealings with the government”

    Listen at 48:49

  17. Bill Kristolon Donald TrumpNegative52:40

    Republicans should impeach or pressure Trump to resign.

    “he really should be impeached or, you know, pressured to resign by the Republicans”

    Listen at 52:40

  18. Bill Kristolon Donald TrumpNegative53:02

    Trump’s recklessness and deterioration are harmful to the country and world.

    “The combination of the recklessness and the deterioration is not good for the country or the world.”

    Listen at 53:02

Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.

Books & mentions

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Midterm hopes meet authoritarian threats and Republican fractures · PodLume