Nov 3, 2026 · 1h 42m
Midterm losses expose fractures inside Trump’s coalition
The KEY Election Day Storylines That Matter, with Victor Davis Hanson and Mark Halperin, Plus NEW Details About the Plane Crash | Ep. 1433
The episode connects expected Republican losses to economic pressure, foreign-policy disputes, polling uncertainty, and a potentially sweeping Democratic response.
- 1Trump’s closing message struggles to overcome voter concerns about affordability, war, and controversies involving his administration and allies.
- 2Republican divisions over Israel, Iran, Epstein, and candidate quality complicate polling and weaken the coalition’s electoral discipline.
- 3A Democratic takeover could trigger investigations and structural changes, while also creating pressure for legislative bargaining on health care.
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Emergency air-traffic-control audio captures severe weather, turbulence, a rapid descent, and an aircraft emergency as controllers coordinate with the crew.
The brief
Megyn Kelly opens on expected Republican losses, asking whether Donald Trump’s closing message—focused partly on Washington’s reflecting pool and algae—matches voters’ concerns about the midterms.
Victor Davis Hanson frames the race through familiar midterm patterns but emphasizes inflation, affordability, war, and dissatisfaction; he warns a Democratic victory could bring major institutional changes.
Mark Halperin describes a volatile Republican coalition divided over Iran, Israel aid, diesel prices, data centers, Epstein, and candidate controversies, making both polling and late forecasts unusually uncertain.
The discussion’s sharpest political tension is whether Republicans need defeat to rebuild—or whether a Democratic wave would instead produce investigations, institutional overreach, and a new cycle of backlash.
The episode closes far from campaign strategy, with emergency aircraft audio and reflections on private aviation, wealth, status, and the human cost of a fatal crash.
What was said on this episode
45 statements · 12 positive · 30 negative · 3 neutral
The White House party usually loses House and Senate seats during midterm elections.
“in the last 126 years, the end party in the White House has lost seats, I think about 22, 25 in the House and one to three in the Senate, except for three occasions.”
Listen at 8:36
The Atlanta Fed projected approximately 5% economic growth.
“The Atlanta Fed, I think it says it's going to grow 5%.”
Listen at 12:16
A president who loses congressional control can still pursue substantial executive action.
“He can pretty much do what he wants.”
Listen at 15:49
Trump will retain at least 40 loyal House members supporting his vetoes.
“He will keep at least a 40-seat minority that's loyal that will support him when he vetoes.”
Listen at 20:05
A future Democratic government would open the border and halt deportations.
“They're going to open the border. I think they've said that. And they're not going to deport anybody.”
Listen at 21:31
A future Democratic government would expand the Supreme Court.
“They will pack the Supreme Court the first thing.”
Listen at 21:37
Democrats will try to eliminate the Electoral College through the National Popular Vote Compact.
“They will get rid of the Electoral College illegally, not through an amendment, but by the National Voters Compact.”
Listen at 21:54
Democrats would eliminate the Senate filibuster immediately after winning control.
“And they will end. The first thing they'll do is end the filibuster. right away.”
Listen at 22:00
Democrats will end the Senate filibuster immediately if they win control of the Senate.
“They will end. The first thing they'll do is end the filibuster. right away. I think they'll do that in January if they win the Senate.”
Listen at 22:01
Democrats would immediately eliminate the Senate filibuster after winning control.
“The first thing they'll do is end the filibuster. right away.”
Listen at 22:03
A Democratic victory would produce major tax increases targeting billionaires.
“Massive tax hikes and going after the billionaires.”
Listen at 22:49
The Iran war will end within roughly two or three months.
“One way or other, it's going to end very soon. maybe two or three months.”
Listen at 28:51
Democrats will overreach through extensive investigations and impeachment efforts against Trump’s circle.
“They will overreach. They will over impeach. They will harass every member of the Trump family. They will investigate, investigate, investigate, as opposed to doing the people's business.”
Listen at 30:57
Democrats will pursue structural changes intended to preserve long-term political dominance.
“They are going to change the Electoral College, the Supreme Court, as we just said. They don't want... to just be in power, they want structural changes that make them always in power”
Listen at 34:43
Weak same-day Republican turnout would indicate a major Democratic wave.
“if you don't see a very robust same day turnout today. you can lean towards the notion of a blue tsunami.”
Listen at 41:02
No Republican-to-Democratic Senate flip is currently certain.
“I can't tell you a single red to blue flip that I'd be confident saying is going to happen.”
Listen at 41:13
Republicans could retain several contested Senate states.
“Ohio could stay red. Kansas could stay red. Iowa, Texas, Maine. They all could stay red.”
Listen at 41:23
A major Democratic wave could eliminate many Republican seats nationwide.
“possible that there would be a major blue tsunami that wipes out a lot of Republican seats at all levels.”
Listen at 41:36
Presidential actions linked to voters’ main concerns can cause midterm losses.
“The president's unpopular for actions he took. that voters connect to the biggest issue in their lives for which they blame him.”
Listen at 42:15
New York Times and Atlas polling could accurately forecast the Senate races.
“those numbers could be right.”
Listen at 47:01
Republicans may lose every contested Senate seat.
“they may not save any of them.”
Listen at 47:43
Republicans may lose every contested Senate race, potentially by substantial margins.
“they may not save any of them. And if those two national or those two polls by national organizations are correct, they won't be particularly close either.”
Listen at 47:43
Haley Stevens’s public explanation failed to clarify opposition to El-Sayed.
“I think what she did didn't help because she didn't clarify in her public presentation. Why should a Democrat be against this guy? I still don't really even know why she is.”
Listen at 55:51
Florida and Louisiana Senate races could be won by Democrats.
“Florida and Louisiana Senate races go Democrat.”
Listen at 59:11
Disciplined campaigns are necessary for Democrats to win red states.
“They've run nearly perfect campaigns, and that's what it takes, right? It's a necessary but not sufficient condition, but it is necessary.”
Listen at 1:00:15
James Talarico can win the Texas Senate race.
“But I know Tallarico can win.”
Listen at 1:02:50
Greg Abbott could lose the Texas governor’s race.
“He could absolutely lose.”
Listen at 1:03:19
Many MAGA voters oppose Trump’s family and allies becoming wealthy while he is president.
“I mean, I hear this all the time from folks like they don't mind Donald Trump being rich, but they do mind Donald Trump and his family and their friends getting rich. while he's in the White House.”
Listen at 1:05:38
Some repeat Trump voters may abstain or vote Democratic because of policy grievances.
“if we see defections tonight from people, three time Trump voters who either don't vote in some of these races or who vote Democratic”
Listen at 1:05:53
Trump-related grievances involving war, diesel, data centers, and family wealth are factual.
“Those are all true.”
Listen at 1:07:19
Trump is responsible for the election problems caused by his policy decisions.
“he has no one to blame but himself. All those things were initiated by him, controlled by him, decisions that he made.”
Listen at 1:08:08
Trump’s last-minute announcements are unlikely to significantly affect the election.
“Anything he thinks he's going to do today or even yesterday that's going to have some big impact on the election, I think he's probably a little bit off.”
Listen at 1:09:04
Trump mishandled the election campaign even without a Democratic wave.
“he's he's definitely messed this up, even if there's not a blue tsunami.”
Listen at 1:09:19
Trump mishandled the 2026 election campaign.
“he's definitely messed this up, even if there's not a blue tsunami.”
Listen at 1:09:20
A Democratic wave would create roughly 30 staff jobs per new member and governor.
“every one of those new members of Congress and every one of those new governors is going to have to hire like 30 people.”
Listen at 1:09:57
A Democratic majority may refuse to confirm Trump judges for two years.
“The Democrats are going to have to decide if they confirm anybody or they just refuse to confirm any Trump judges even for two years.”
Listen at 1:10:38
A Democratic wave would repudiate Trump rather than validate Democratic ideas.
“It will not be, as you well know, it will not be a validation of the Democratic brand or any Democratic ideas because they offered none. It's just going to be a repudiation of the president.”
Listen at 1:11:04
A Democratic wave would repudiate Trump rather than validate Democratic ideas.
“It will not be a validation of the Democratic brand or any Democratic ideas because they offered none. It's just going to be a repudiation of the president.”
Listen at 1:11:05
Democrats would seek to restore Obamacare subsidies, Medicaid funding, and hospital funding.
“They want the Obamacare subsidies back. They want the Medicaid cuts restored. They want money for hospitals restored.”
Listen at 1:12:10
Jeff Gregory was an experienced pilot licensed since at least 2016.
“He was an experienced pilot. He had been flying since at least 2016.”
Listen at 1:19:09
Some private jets may face substantially lower safety standards than American Airlines aircraft.
“you may get a plane that doesn't have to meet anywhere near the same safety standards as your American Airlines jet does pulling out of JFK.”
Listen at 1:27:39
Using private aviation outside major operators entails serious safety risks.
“Unless you go through one of these companies, you know, like a NetJets that will only hire pilots that have the same qualifications as the big airlines and use planes that have the same or similar safety standards, you are taking serious risks.”
Listen at 1:28:55
Serious pilot errors may have contributed to the Learjet crash.
“It sounds like there really may have been serious pilot errors made here”
Listen at 1:29:24
Pilots are ultimately responsible for avoiding severe weather.
“it's ultimately up to the pilot to avoid the weather.”
Listen at 1:29:35
The co-pilot’s emergency communications likely saved lives on the ground.
“this woman saved lives by providing that information and explaining what they were going through.”
Listen at 1:32:50
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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