Oct 28, 2026 · 50 min
Midterm math meets Israel’s unsettled political future
Harry Enten and Julian Borger: Voting with Fear and Loathing
The episode connects U.S. election forecasts with Israel’s coalition uncertainty and international lessons about resisting authoritarian politics.
- 1Harry Enten sees a likely Democratic Senate majority while warning that polling errors could still reshape election night.
- 2Israel’s election produces a stronger Arab-Israeli presence but leaves coalition formation and regional-security decisions unsettled.
- 3Brazil, Serbia, Israel, and the United States suggest broad opposition unity and civic mobilization can challenge authoritarian strategies.
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Julian Borger explains how Serbia’s student-led movement uses anti-corruption organizing and direct-democracy plenums to rebuild constitutional institutions.
The brief
Harry Enten maps the Democrats’ likely House gains and a Senate path centered on roughly 52 seats, while identifying early indicators from New Jersey, Colorado, Virginia, New England, and Kentucky.
The forecast remains vulnerable to polling errors: Susan Collins’s history of outperforming polls and uncertainty about Republican nonresponse could turn a projected wave into a narrower result.
Julian Borger reports from Jerusalem on Israel’s election, where Netanyahu’s bloc, stronger Arab-Israeli turnout, and uncertain coalition options leave policy and regional-security questions unresolved.
The discussion widens to Brazil and Serbia, where high turnout, anti-corruption organizing, and student-led democratic institutions offer a counterpoint to the assumption that fear automatically benefits authoritarian movements.
The episode’s central lesson is strategic rather than ideological: democratic opposition movements may gain strength by uniting around accountability, institutional repair, and shared norms.
What was said on this episode
25 statements · 14 positive · 6 negative · 1 mixed · 4 neutral
Opposition parties gained more House seats than race ratings initially indicated in every midterm since 2006.
“in five of the five midterms since 2006, the opposition party in those midterms picked up more seats than were just leaning.”
Listen at 2:12
A double-digit Democratic national House-ballot lead could unlock additional Republican seats.
“If it's double digits, which the New York Times and CNN have shown, then there's a real chance that they could crack it.”
Listen at 4:35
Democrats are likely to win a House majority absent a major disruption.
“Democrats are kind of playing with house money. Hello. And they're going to get the majority unless something goes totally awry.”
Listen at 4:54
Most reputable polls showed Abdul Al-Sayed leading Mike Rogers in Michigan.
“most of the reputable polls have had Abdul Al-Sayed ahead.”
Listen at 10:02
Troy Jackson is better positioned than Susan Collins in Maine’s Senate race.
“I definitely would rather be Troy Jackson at this point than Susan Collins.”
Listen at 10:30
Israel-policy-focused Michigan voters favored El Sayed more than Michigan voters overall.
“Amongst those voters who said that U.S. policy towards Israel was extremely important to their vote, El Sayed actually did better. than he did overall.”
Listen at 11:39
Kansas is a plausible Democratic Senate opportunity despite skepticism.
“Kansas, look, I get sort of the skepticism in so far as, you know.”
Listen at 15:16
Black turnout appears to be surging in the Southern United States.
“we are seeing, you know, in the Southern United States, that there does seem to be a surge in black turnout.”
Listen at 17:42
Republicans were not underestimated by final polls in the 2022 close Senate races.
“in the last midterm election, it didn't happen.”
Listen at 19:46
A 2020-style polling miss could leave Democrats with 47 Senate seats.
“I think you could end up 47. I think you could. 47? I think it's possible.”
Listen at 21:23
Israel may seriously consider restoring direct election of its prime minister.
“I wonder if there's going to be a question whether or not Israel might decide. I'm not saying that they will. I'm not saying there's a high percentage chance. But if I were there over there, I'd be seriously considering perhaps directly electing the prime minister again”
Listen at 26:12
Mary Peltola would remain favored if she led Alaska’s first ranked-choice round.
“I would still consider Patola a favorite”
Listen at 27:51
A Peltola victory would reflect both Trump’s unpopularity and Peltola’s personal appeal.
“Patola, if she wins, is as much of a statement about how unpopular Donald Trump is, but it is also very much a statement on Patola's potentially unique appeal to win a Senate race in Alaska.”
Listen at 28:43
Neither major Jewish bloc has enough seats for an Israeli governing majority.
“neither of the Jewish bloc's government and opposition have enough to make a majority.”
Listen at 31:19
Fear of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich drove Arab-Israeli voter mobilization.
“People were frightened of Ben Gavir, Smotrich.”
Listen at 31:45
An Eisenkot-led government would not substantially change Israeli policy toward Palestinians.
“the basis of Israeli policy in the West Bank in Gaza wouldn't really change.”
Listen at 33:02
Netanyahu would intensify delegitimization of an Arab-supported opposition government.
“then he could be expected to double down on that and run on it in the next election, very much so.”
Listen at 35:01
Military action against Iran remains very likely.
“the military action in Iran remains very likely”
Listen at 37:13
Resumed military action against Iran has a high probability.
“the chances of resumed military action against Iran are high.”
Listen at 38:02
Fear mobilized Arab-Israeli and Palestinian-Israeli voters.
“fear was really a factor here with the Arab-Israeli, the Palestinian-Israeli vote.”
Listen at 39:49
Innovative direct-democracy methods can weaken authoritarian regimes.
“New imaginative forms of direct democracy can break the hold of autocratic authoritarian regimes.”
Listen at 40:42
Authoritarian regimes must escalate violence or eventually lose power.
“authoritarian regimes either have to keep on doubling down on violence, the use of violence. or they're ultimately ousted.”
Listen at 42:33
Serbian students organized their movement through direct democracy.
“The students ran a movement based on direct democracy.”
Listen at 45:31
A Serbian student-led government would likely be technocratic.
“If they manage to get their act together to put government together, it'll be a technocratic government.”
Listen at 46:21
Serbian student candidates seek institutional reform before addressing policy.
“they want to reform the structure so it works according like it's supposed to work.”
Listen at 46:47
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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