Sep 10, 2026 · 23 min

Midterm model tests Democratic strength in key Senate races

‘Still Counting’ After All These Years

The discussion shows how modest polling shifts, candidate perceptions, and party enthusiasm can reshape the midterm outlook.

3 key takeaways

1Nate Silver’s Flipper model gives Democrats a strong House path while Republican enthusiasm shows a modest rebound.
2North Carolina becomes a test of Democratic resilience, with Roy Cooper’s strength carrying implications beyond one Senate race.
3Michigan exposes the difficulty of judging moderation when ideology, identity, outsider appeal, and candidate image overlap.

Don't miss

The hosts debate whether Abdul El-Sayed’s progressive positions and outsider image make him a genuinely weak candidate or reflect narrow perceptions of moderation.

The brief

Galen Druke, Claire Malone, and Nate Silver introduce Still Counting, a new podcast rooted in their FiveThirtyEight collaboration and live political shows.

Nate’s Flipper model gives Democrats a strong chance to win the House, but the hosts note that small polling shifts can produce much larger changes in electoral probabilities.

A Senate race game puts North Carolina under the microscope, where Roy Cooper’s record as a two-term governor makes the contest a test of Democratic strength and polling assumptions.

Michigan brings the harder argument: whether Abdul El-Sayed’s progressive positions, outsider image, and efforts at moderation make him a weak candidate or a misunderstood one.

The conversation ends by separating electoral analysis from online issue fights, showing how voters’ reactions to labels such as podcaster and socialist complicate candidate evaluation.

What was said on this episode

16 statements · 6 positive · 4 negative · 2 mixed · 4 neutral

Nate Silveron Near-even election forecastsNeutral7:41
Near-even election forecasts are highly sensitive to small polling changes.
“when you're near 50 50 small moves affect the probabilities a fair bit”
Listen at 7:41
Nate Silveron Likely-voter generic ballot pollsNegative8:20
Likely-voter polls show a smaller Republican enthusiasm gap than earlier measures.
“As we've gotten more generic ballot polls among likely voters, they don't show quite as much of an enthusiasm gap.”
Listen at 8:20
Nate Silveron Republican enthusiasmPositive9:06
Republican enthusiasm is experiencing a modest rebound near the election.
“I think you see like a little bit of a rebound in Republican enthusiasm.”
Listen at 9:06
Nate Silveron Donald TrumpNegative9:18
Trump's approval is about 38%, while disapproval is 58–59%.
“Trump's approval rating is 38 percent or so. His disapproval rating is 58, 59 percent.”
Listen at 9:18
Claire Maloneon Roy Cooper–Michael Watley North Carolina Senate racePositive11:37
Roy Cooper is expected to defeat Michael Watley in North Carolina.
“we're pretty sure that the Democrat Roy Cooper is going to win in his race against Republican Michael Watley”
Listen at 11:37
Nate Silveron Roy Cooper North Carolina Senate raceNegative12:26
A Cooper loss would imply major polling error and severe Democratic trouble.
“If he doesn't, Democrats are fucked anyway. That means the polls are probably way off again.”
Listen at 12:26
Nate Silveron North CarolinaPositive13:25
North Carolina became more politically competitive after 2024.
“North Carolina actually became more purple.”
Listen at 13:25
Nate Silveron Roy CooperPositive13:29
Roy Cooper is a strong Senate candidate in North Carolina.
“Cooper's a strong candidate.”
Listen at 13:29
Nate Silveron Moderate political candidatesPositive16:07
More moderate candidates generally tend to outperform electoral baselines.
“in general, More moderate candidates, how you define moderation is complicated, tend to overperform.”
Listen at 16:07
Nate Silveron Political polarizationNegative17:05
Increasing polarization makes individual candidates matter less electorally.
“we're kind of moving into a parliamentary system where the candidates matter less.”
Listen at 17:05
Nate Silveron Abdul El-Sayed Michigan Senate racePositive17:14
A seven-point Democratic baseline advantage can offset El-Sayed's candidate penalty.
“A seven point cushion is enough to cover it.”
Listen at 17:14
Nate Silveron Abdul El-Sayed–Mike Rogers Michigan Senate raceMixed17:20
The Michigan Senate race is close to a toss-up, with El-Sayed slightly ahead.
“It's closer to a toss up. Maybe El Sayed by one point.”
Listen at 17:20
Galen Drukeon Michigan Senate voter prioritiesNeutral19:39
Domestic policy issues will motivate voters more than the Israel question in Michigan.
“defund the police, abolish ICE, Medicare for all those kinds of things will actually motivate voters more than the Israel question”
Listen at 19:39
Galen Drukeon American voter issue prioritiesNeutral20:05
Broad voters rank inflation, government competence, corruption, and the economy above Israel-Palestine.
“for the broad sort of base of American voters, it is not ranking up there. It's really, again, inflation, sort of incompetence in government and corruption, then the economy more broadly.”
Listen at 20:05
Galen Drukeon Voter issue prioritiesNeutral20:24
Fifty percent prioritize the Iran war, versus 22% for the Israel-Gaza issue.
“50% of voters say the war in Iran, 22% of voters say the Israel-Gazian issue.”
Listen at 20:24
Galen Drukeon Abdul El-Sayed Michigan Senate campaignMixed21:01
El-Sayed's Michigan race will test whether the left can perform in battleground states.
“This is going to be viewed as a test for whether the left can perform in a battleground state”
Listen at 21:01

Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.

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