Oct 31, 2026 · 24 min
Midterms tighten as Trump and Democrats nationalize the fight
Washington Week with The Atlantic full episode, 10/30/26
The balance of Congress could determine how aggressively lawmakers oversee the president and whether executive power faces meaningful checks after Election Day.
- 1Seven Senate races have become toss-ups as tariffs, prices, immigration, and the Iran war weigh on Republican candidates.
- 2Trump is campaigning heavily in Republican-leaning states while Democrats frame affordability and presidential accountability as central closing arguments.
- 3Early-voting totals offer limited evidence about persuasion or turnout, while Alaska’s ballot dispute adds uncertainty to control of Congress.
Don't miss
The panel untangles Alaska’s ballot controversy, including ranked-choice voting, delayed absentee ballots, and a second candidate named Dan Sullivan.
The brief
The panel opens on a volatile midterm map, with seven Senate races rated toss-ups and unusually heavy early voting complicating predictions about Election Day.
Republicans face pressure from tariffs, prices, immigration, and the Iran war, while Donald Trump campaigns across red states in what may be a defensive strategy.
Democrats are closing on affordability and the consequences of Trump’s policies, but the panel examines how negative rhetoric and nationalized races are reshaping local contests.
Alaska’s ranked-choice system, delayed absentee ballots, and allegations involving Mary Peltola create an unusually tangled contest that could affect control of Congress.
The discussion ends with the governing stakes: oversight, subpoenas, and spending bills could expand under Democratic control, though executive power would still constrain Congress.
What was said on this episode
28 statements · 7 positive · 15 negative · 1 mixed · 5 neutral
Republicans could win Iowa but lose Kansas in the Senate races.
“I can imagine a scenario in which the Republican wins in Iowa and loses in Kansas.”
Listen at 1:59
Candidate quality will materially affect these Senate races.
“I think it tells the story of how the candidates will matter in these races”
Listen at 2:29
Donald Trump's approval rating has sharply fallen in states he won decisively.
“the president's approval rating has just plummeted, even in states that he won by double digits.”
Listen at 2:58
Voters are linking high prices to tariffs and the Iran war.
“voters, I think, in these places are connecting the dots between high prices to tariffs and to the Iran war.”
Listen at 3:04
Tariffs and the Iran war are reducing Trump's and allied candidates' support.
“that has been driving down Donald Trump's approval rating and driving down candidates with him.”
Listen at 3:11
Voters reject politicians' positive economic claims that conflict with lived experience.
“They don't want to listen to a politician tell them things are good if they don't feel that they're good.”
Listen at 4:47
Negative partisanship can motivate voters.
“negative partisanship can be a motivating factor.”
Listen at 6:07
Anti-Muslim messaging may increase Republican base turnout in key races.
“maybe they can juice their base in some of those key races”
Listen at 6:12
Donald Trump started the Iran war without congressional approval.
“he started the war in Iran without asking Congress”
Listen at 8:37
Donald Trump's claim that the Iran war would end quickly proved false.
“He claimed it would be over. It wasn't.”
Listen at 8:42
James Tallarico could win through South Texas turnout.
“If they do so with James Tallarico, it will be because of the turnout in South Texas”
Listen at 9:45
South Texas voters are likely abandoning Trump’s party and aiding Democrats.
“all signs point to them not only abandoning Trump's party this year, but actually helping Democrats win”
Listen at 9:59
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting.
“Alaska, which uses ranked choice voting”
Listen at 11:32
The Alaska ballot accusation will make an already confusing result more confusing.
“this accusation just adds to what was already going to be a very, very confusing result.”
Listen at 11:51
A Senate outcome hinging on Alaska would create an information vacuum.
“If control of the Senate comes down to Alaska, there's going to be a vacuum of information.”
Listen at 11:57
The Alaska controversy could damage perceived election legitimacy elsewhere.
“it could have implications for the legitimacy or the idea of legitimacy around Alaska and around elections elsewhere in the country.”
Listen at 12:40
Trump and allies have prepared to undermine the election’s legitimacy.
“Trump and his allies have been preparing for two years to undermine the legitimacy of this election.”
Listen at 13:33
The Alaska controversy will create confusion in other races.
“It just simply muddies the water elsewhere.”
Listen at 14:21
The Ohio ad could hurt John Husted’s Senate campaign.
“It could hurt John Husted.”
Listen at 17:30
The 2026 election is on track to be America’s most expensive ever.
“it's already looking to be the most expensive election in American history, and that includes presidential elections.”
Listen at 18:39
A billionaire is spending over $250 million to elect Ken Paxton in Texas.
“is spending more than a quarter of a billion dollars from what's... just disclosed much of it on a single Senate race in the effort to get Ken Paxton elected in Texas.”
Listen at 18:51
Billionaires’ campaign spending is itself becoming an election issue.
“this vast amount of money, the billionaires themselves in some ways who are spending the money are now becoming campaign issues.”
Listen at 19:24
Trump’s rhetoric about mail voting may be changing voter behavior.
“the way that President Trump has talked about particularly mail voting and early voting and cast sort of a doubt about whether people's votes are going to be counted may be changing voter behavior”
Listen at 20:41
Democrats may be up to ten points likelier to prefer in-person voting.
“Democrats are as many as 10 points more likely to say, oh, I want to vote in person or I want to vote on Election Day”
Listen at 20:57
A Democratic majority would not substantially change legislation under Trump.
“It won't change that much in terms of legislation.”
Listen at 22:00
A Democratic congressional majority could use oversight, subpoenas, and spending bills against Trump.
“They will be able to use oversight. They will be able to use the gavel to investigate subpoena power. They will be able to use spending bills to get some changes on policy.”
Listen at 22:06
House control will be known quickly after the election.
“We'll definitely know who controls the House, I think, very quickly.”
Listen at 22:53
Senate control remains highly uncertain.
“The Senate feels really uncertain to me”
Listen at 22:56
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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