Aug 25, 2026 · 1h 10m
Newton sees volatility before a potential year-end market surge
Fall Market Swoon, Followed By An End-Of-Year Boom? | Mark Newton, Fundstrat
Mark Newton’s outlook links a bullish long-term market view to near-term risks from elections, technology, inflation, rates, housing, and fiscal strain.
- 1Newton expects midterm-election uncertainty to produce volatility while maintaining an S&P 500 year-end target of 8,000.
- 2Technology, long-term Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and energy pressures are the key variables shaping the market’s next move.
- 3He favors healthcare, biotech, energy, materials, precious metals, and base metals while treating technology and real estate cautiously.
Don't miss
Newton explains why a bullish long-term outlook can coexist with near-term caution, especially as technology, yields, and housing test the market.
The brief
Mark Newton of Fundstrat retains an ambitious S&P 500 year-end target of 8,000, but expects the market’s advance to become less straightforward through the midterm-election period.
Improving breadth and leadership from financials, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and industrials support the rally, while technology remains the most immediate risk to the broader market.
The discussion connects inflation, oil, the dollar, Federal Reserve communication, and long-term Treasury yields; Newton expects the dollar to weaken and long-term yields to rise.
Newton’s tactical preferences favor healthcare, biotech, energy, materials, precious metals, and base metals, while he expects technology to consolidate despite a constructive longer-term view.
The sharpest tension arrives in housing: higher long-term yields and mortgage rates could deepen regional real-estate weakness, with Newton placing a possible cycle bottom around 2029.
Newton’s broader framework is trend-based rather than prediction-driven: stay constructive on long-term growth, but reduce risk when market conditions and leadership materially change.
What was said on this episode
36 statements · 21 positive · 12 negative · 2 mixed · 1 neutral
Newton expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 and finish 2026 positively.
“my target, it was lifted to 8,000 from 7,300. I do see that by end of year, market should end the year on a positive note.”
Listen at 1:31
Newton expects significant market volatility in September.
“specifically in September, we're likely going to get some volatility.”
Listen at 1:44
Newton expects choppy U.S. equity markets through the midterm elections.
“Where we go next, I think, is it's going to prove a little bit choppy between now and the midterms.”
Listen at 4:46
Newton says technology stocks must stabilize before regaining prior momentum.
“tech still has some work to do before it really can regain some of the former momentum it had.”
Listen at 5:03
Newton expects crude oil prices to rise through mid-September or early October.
“crude oil, To me, looks like we're going to continue this little bounce that we started in the month of July up higher into probably mid-September, early October”
Listen at 5:43
Newton identifies rising long-term yields and crude oil as major market risks.
“my biggest risks over the next few months are that yields on the long end still are likely going to rise and also that crude oil also can probably rise.”
Listen at 6:53
Newton expects U.S. political partisanship to decline after the midterms, benefiting markets.
“regardless of what happens in the election. You know, the partisanship will go down. That's going to be a sense of relief for markets.”
Listen at 8:50
Newton says markets generally favor political gridlock that limits legislation.
“markets tend to embrace the extent to which there is gridlock and that not a lot can be passed.”
Listen at 13:52
Newton says a sharp technology decline would materially hurt the stock market.
“if tech were to start to nosedive, that is the absolute number one tangible. point that one could see as being something that would adversely affect the stock market”
Listen at 17:50
Newton expects Treasury intervention near a 4.75% ten-year yield.
“yields likely cannot get too far above 475 on the 10-year.”
Listen at 18:48
Newton says technology, driven by AI, will remain the biggest market driver.
“technology is the biggest driver of markets. It has been. It will continue to be. with what's happening with AI.”
Listen at 22:00
Newton views inflation remaining above the Fed’s target as temporary.
“I do view any sort of inability of inflation to get back to exactly the Fed's target as probably being temporary”
Listen at 25:11
Newton says current inflation has not been as severe as many expected.
“the fact that inflation thus far has not reared its ugly head to the extent that almost everybody who specifically if you tend to be. of one political persuasion, you might say, well, it is absolutely inflationary and oh, it's a really big deal. And the markets are not saying that right now.”
Listen at 25:52
Newton says new Federal Reserve governors’ first terms are often volatile.
“The first term of a new Fed governor is often very rocky and volatile.”
Listen at 28:19
Newton expects the U.S. dollar to decline over the next year.
“the dollar should be headed to the downside over the next year.”
Listen at 30:44
Newton says a weaker dollar would benefit U.S. companies’ foreign earnings.
“Having the dollar go lower would certainly benefit that.”
Listen at 31:13
Newton says corporate profit growth is the strongest in approximately 30 years.
“The earnings are literally the highest we've seen in about 30 years”
Listen at 33:29
Newton says housing would provide an early warning if long-term rates remain high.
“if we can't, then the housing market would give us that first signal, I think, that there's going to be a problem.”
Listen at 33:59
Newton says the U.S. leads globally in oil capacity and AI infrastructure.
“the US has played this card perfectly in ways that probably the majority of the public does not completely understand, given that we're leading the world in oil capacity and AI infrastructure.”
Listen at 37:10
Newton expects an economic cyclical turning point around Q3 2028, extending into 2030.
“I think that eventually probably come the third quarter of 2028, we'll reach sort of a tipping point where, you know, some of the cycles I looked at start to turn down into like 2030.”
Listen at 40:44
Newton does not expect the major economic problem in 2026 or 2027.
“I don't sense that the problem is in 2026 nor next year.”
Listen at 41:00
Newton recommends privatizing Social Security and investing contributions in markets.
“privatizing social security makes a lot of sense and putting that money to work in the market is a way of trying to grow that.”
Listen at 42:37
Newton recommends reducing post-COVID government spending increases.
“I would argue that it's right to pull the plug and reduce all that.”
Listen at 43:11
Newton says Elon Musk’s Washington work correctly uncovered substantial fraud.
“I think that. They at least uncovered a lot of things that were absolutely correct about some of the fraud that was happening.”
Listen at 44:37
Newton is optimistic about artificial intelligence.
“I tend to be pretty optimistic about. AI, I guess.”
Listen at 49:40
Newton says AI should be treated as an ongoing trend rather than presumed to be a bubble.
“it's right to trust the trend and look to make changes versus be too skeptical without proof that things are absolutely in a bubble. And I just don't really see that right now.”
Listen at 50:44
Newton considers many technology stocks inexpensive if projected earnings are accurate.
“For those that are intermediate term investors, many of these technology stocks are still quite cheap if in fact they're forward earnings are to be believed.”
Listen at 53:51
Newton recommends owning technology stocks over the next several years.
“you'd want to own technology for the next couple of years and think that it's still going to be a wonderful source of returns.”
Listen at 54:04
Newton recommends investing in healthcare stocks.
“I would invest in healthcare.”
Listen at 54:16
Newton recommends owning energy and materials stocks.
“I would own energy and materials.”
Listen at 54:45
Newton expects precious and base metals to perform better as real rates decline.
“precious metals, base metals should work much better as rear rates start to retreat.”
Listen at 54:49
Newton recommends buying dips in cryptocurrencies and metals after consolidation.
“thereafter, I think it's probably wise to look to buy any and all dips in crypto as well as metals.”
Listen at 55:21
Newton expects ten- and thirty-year Treasury yields to rise.
“Long-term interest rates, and I just call them rates, like 10-year, 30-year treasury yields, I think will probably start to push back higher”
Listen at 56:49
Newton says housing may be the first market affected by rising long-term yields.
“that's normally the first shoe to drop.”
Listen at 57:36
Newton expects the long-term housing cycle to bottom around 2029.
“the long term 18, it's like an 18 and a half year cycle, you know, should be peaking and should bottom, honestly, like 2029.”
Listen at 1:00:50
Newton expects markets to initially bottom and rise before becoming choppy.
“initially, you know, markets should attempt to bottom and push higher. And then we probably get a little choppy period.”
Listen at 1:03:29
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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