Sep 15, 2026 · 24 min
Oil and Treasury yields may steer mortgage rates more than Fed policy
Fed week preview and mortgage rates
The episode frames mortgage rates as a product of energy prices, bond yields, political pressure, and housing conditions—not the Fed decision alone.
- 1Oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield could influence mortgage rates more immediately than the Fed’s meeting outcome.
- 2Mortgage spreads remain unusually wide, offering some protection against a sharper rise in borrowing costs.
- 3Inventory and price trends look healthier, but affordability and weak sales continue to constrain the housing market.
Don't miss
Logan Mohtashami argues that oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield may shape mortgage rates more than the Fed’s immediate decision.
The brief
Logan Mohtashami joins Sarah Whaler to preview the Fed meeting, weighing Iran-related market risk, political pressure, mortgage rates, and the latest housing data.
The central argument is that oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield may matter more for mortgage rates than the Fed’s immediate decision, especially as geopolitical risk shifts markets.
Mohtashami’s worst-case rate discussion turns on unusually wide mortgage spreads, which could cushion borrowers even if Treasury yields rise further.
Housing tracker data points to modest inventory growth, less risk of runaway price gains, and healthier supply conditions, though holiday timing distorted weekly readings.
The episode lands on a mixed housing picture: inventory and prices are improving, while affordability, elevated rates, and weak sales keep the market difficult.
Weekly email
State of the Pod, every Monday
The week's most-discussed names and stories from podcasts, with the moments behind them. Free, five minutes, unsubscribe in one click.