Sep 7, 2026 · 1h 3m
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Past wave elections offer Democrats a midterm playbook
Bill Kristol: A Blue Wave vs. the Toxic Red Tide
The episode tests whether today’s political conditions resemble the backlash, turnout shifts, and strategic failures that produced the 1994 and 2006 waves.
- 1The 2006 Democratic wave grew from Iraq, Katrina, competence concerns, and late-breaking collapses in Republican races.
- 2The 1994 Republican breakthrough paired anti-incumbent backlash with a positive agenda, but Clinton’s healthcare defeat deepened Democratic losses.
- 3Democrats’ strongest strategy may target both Trump and a Republican Congress that enables him and avoids meaningful oversight.
Don't miss
Bill Kristol recounts how George Allen’s “macaca” remark and the campaign’s response helped turn a Virginia Senate race toward Jim Webb.
The brief
Tim Miller and Bill Kristol frame the 2026 midterms through two historical waves: Democrats’ 2006 breakthrough and Republicans’ 1994 takeover after decades of Democratic House control.
The early forecast turns on Trump’s approval, the national House vote, and the Senate map, where a broad wave could pull Republican-leaning districts and close races toward Democrats.
The 2006 comparison emphasizes Iraq, Katrina, competence concerns, Harriet Miers, and late campaign collapses, including George Allen’s damaging “macaca” controversy against Jim Webb.
The 1994 account centers on the Contract with America, anti-incumbent sentiment, congressional scandals, and Clinton’s failed healthcare reform, which made Democrats appear threatening to moderates.
The episode’s strategic conclusion is that Democrats should campaign against both Trump and a Republican Congress whose passivity and lack of oversight make it part of the target.
What was said on this episode
21 statements · 11 positive · 6 negative · 2 mixed · 2 neutral
The 2026 midterms will be a strong year for Democrats.
“I've thought it would be a big Democratic year for quite a while”
Listen at 3:48
Trump’s policies and rising prices could turn a good Democratic year into a very good one.
“I thought a good year could become a very good year for the Democrats”
Listen at 4:46
Democrats will win approximately 235 House seats to Republicans’ 200.
“I've been saying, just to be a little optimistic, just to make the numbers round, 235 to 200 in the House.”
Listen at 7:52
Wave elections tend to make close races break toward the wave party.
“when you get a wave, things tend to tip over to 51-49 your direction”
Listen at 11:33
Late campaign momentum could determine several close Senate races.
“if the wave continues, this is where it's so important what happens late”
Listen at 12:02
Changes in the national House vote margin could substantially affect close Senate races.
“Does it go +8 to drift down to +6, or does it go up to +9? That just makes a big, big difference in these close Senate races.”
Listen at 13:04
Bush’s Social Security privatization proposal would fail because the country was unprepared.
“this is going to fail. I mean, he has not— the country is not ready for this.”
Listen at 29:30
Midterm turnout is typically about two-thirds of presidential-election turnout.
“The turnout in midterm elections is about 2/3 that of a presidential, sometimes even less”
Listen at 31:02
Anti-Trump sentiment could increase Democratic turnout while depressing Republican turnout.
“you get the Democratic turnout up and the Republican turnout down”
Listen at 32:07
Turnout asymmetry can make 2024 presidential margins misleading for 2026 races.
“If you can get both of those happening at the same time in an electorate that's 2/3 the size of a presidential electorate, that's where, again, that 2024 number of +11 is a little misleading.”
Listen at 32:09
Hurricane Katrina made it easier to portray Bush’s administration as incompetent.
“Katrina made it more plausible It's possible to say they're kind of— Bush sold himself competence, toughness, but also competence”
Listen at 34:20
Iraq conditions worsened during the two years after Rumsfeld remained in office.
“Things got worse over the next 2 years.”
Listen at 35:30
Bush should have fired Rumsfeld before the 2006 election.
“Wouldn't it have been better to do it in September?”
Listen at 35:39
Bush should have fired Rumsfeld before the election.
“He should have done it.”
Listen at 37:01
The Contract with America improved Republicans’ 1994 performance by roughly half a point.
“It helped by like half a point. It was not important.”
Listen at 40:52
The U.S. healthcare system did not face a major crisis in 1994.
“The healthcare system was not that broken. There was no healthcare crisis.”
Listen at 51:24
Republicans successfully portrayed Clinton’s healthcare plan as threatening satisfactory employer insurance.
“He's endangering your health insurance that you're satisfied with.”
Listen at 52:52
Defending the healthcare status quo is politically easier than proposing wholesale reform.
“The status quo is easier to defend than to say, let's risk everything by overturning the whole thing.”
Listen at 53:00
Clinton won reelection by approximately seven or eight points after the 1994 Republican wave.
“'94 was great, and then Clinton promptly won reelection by 7 or 8 points or something in '96.”
Listen at 56:02
Democrats regained the House by recruiting candidates from a broader sociological coalition.
“they got it back by doing exactly what you just said”
Listen at 58:04
Democrats should study Harry Truman’s 1948 speeches for campaign messaging.
“They should go read Harry Truman's speeches from 1948. They're excellent.”
Listen at 1:01:21
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.