Jul 24, 2026 · 45 min
Quantum computing startups pivot to global integration to bypass hardware bottlenecks
Why quantum has been "10 years away" for 30 years | E2316
As quantum hardware matures, the race to build stable qubits is shifting from academic theory to a global commercial and geopolitical scramble with massive cryptographic implications.
- 1The quantum hardware landscape is highly fragmented, with neutral atom technology emerging as a viable alternative to superconducting qubits.
The brief
While quantum computing has promised to revolutionize technology for decades, the field remains stuck in an experimental phase reminiscent of classical computing in the 1950s as researchers struggle to build stable, scalable hardware.
Kazuhiro Nakashoji, founder of Kyoto University spin-out Yaqumo, argues that the path forward lies in neutral atom technology and global supply chain integration rather than trying to build every complex component in-house.
By sourcing high-fidelity lasers globally and assembling them like a high-tech automaker, Yaqumo aims to bypass traditional academic bottlenecks and intellectual property hurdles that often stall Japanese deep-tech startups.
The integration of classical artificial intelligence is emerging as a critical savior for quantum hardware, playing a vital role in managing error correction and stabilizing qubits during complex calculations.
As quantum computing inches closer to commercial reality, its potential to break RSA cryptography presents a looming global security risk, driving intense geopolitical competition to secure quantum supremacy first.
What was said on this episode
32 statements · 18 positive · 11 negative · 1 mixed · 2 neutral
Quantum computing has remained roughly five to ten years from practical realization for three decades.
“Quantum computing has been five to 10 years away for the past 30 years.”
Listen at 2:53
Quantum computing’s prolonged timeline primarily reflects hardware difficulty.
“That's really question more so of difficulty parts coming from hardware itself.”
Listen at 3:02
Useful quantum calculations require assembling many quantum processing units.
“we have to make it bunch of number of QPU to do very useful calculation.”
Listen at 3:26
Quantum computers are not generally faster than CPUs or GPUs.
“Once we use quantum computers, maybe people believe that, oh, maybe we can do more nice, very fast calculation compared to CPU or gpu. But this is. First of all, it's not correct.”
Listen at 4:21
Quantum computers apply mainly to particular problem classes rather than general computation.
“We can apply quantum computer for particular questions or problems.”
Listen at 4:37
Estimated qubit requirements for some quantum problems have fallen to approximately 10,000.
“Close to for example 10,000 qubit.”
Listen at 6:26
Current estimated qubit requirements are about one percent of estimates from ten years earlier.
“Just 1% of what we expected 10 years ago.”
Listen at 6:30
Required and available qubit counts may converge around 2030.
“So we believe that we reach to like two of them meet each other's close to 2030 for example in next four to five years.”
Listen at 7:17
Some quantum computers are already installed in data centers.
“some of the quantum computer already installed into data center already.”
Listen at 7:36
Quantum calculations currently produce many errors.
“once we do quantum calculations. Yeah, they made a lot of error.”
Listen at 8:04
Quantum computers require quantum error correction to preserve information.
“we have to correct this error so called. We call it quantum error collections.”
Listen at 8:20
Quantum error correction can enable scalable, robust quantum computers.
“by doing so we can create very scalable, very robust quantum computer.”
Listen at 8:36
Japan lacks a well-established method for transferring university IP into startups.
“at this moment there's not very solid methodology how to use IP from university to startup.”
Listen at 14:15
Yakumo expects approximately eighteen months of runway after its seed extension.
“for our case, we expected, for example, 18 months.”
Listen at 16:14
A coordinated quantum hardware supply chain is crucial for industrializing quantum computers.
“this kind of supply chain is very crucial for industrialization.”
Listen at 29:33
AI language models are already used for quantum error correction.
“we already use a lot of AI LLM transformer for example to do content collection.”
Listen at 32:06
Quantum computing currently lacks practical applications for AI.
“at this moment there's no practical or tangible example about quantum for AI.”
Listen at 32:30
Practical quantum computing applications for AI may arrive relatively soon.
“We believe the future is not super, super far away.”
Listen at 32:54
Quantum-generated data could improve AI model capabilities.
“Why don't we use this data to make AI even smarter? We can differentiate the model by doing so.”
Listen at 33:57
Quantum-for-AI applications could make quantum computing companies highly profitable.
“I believe quantum for AI. Once this kind of happens, quantum computer company makes tons of money.”
Listen at 34:10
For some programs, quantum computers may consume less energy than classical computers.
“Then we do a particular program solving the num. The energy that quantum computer use even less than classical computers.”
Listen at 35:03
Quantum computers will not replace classical computers entirely.
“quantum computers take over all the position of the classical computers, just one part of it.”
Listen at 35:42
Quantum computers could substantially accelerate classical computing.
“But I believe quantum computer could be the very, very great accelerator to make classical computer even smarter.”
Listen at 35:49
Quantum threats to current cryptography require caution within five to ten years.
“in next five to 10 years we have to be very, very be careful about it.”
Listen at 37:02
A sufficiently large quantum processor can break RSA cryptography.
“if you reach to certain amount of the size of the qubit qpu we can solve RSA cryptography.”
Listen at 37:26
Quantum computers will not break RSA cryptography within two years.
“But it won't be happening next two years.”
Listen at 37:34
Adversaries can collect encrypted data now and decrypt it with future quantum computers.
“take now encrypted data, solve later.”
Listen at 38:16
The United States aims to have a useful commercial quantum computer by 2028.
“United States license announced that they tried to launch or they want to have very useful commercial computer by 2028.”
Listen at 39:02
China is among the leading countries in quantum computing.
“They, they doing very, very well. So I think one of the top country is China.”
Listen at 39:54
Neutral-atom quantum computers may reduce qubit costs by approximately one hundredfold.
“we use a neutral atoms. And if you're thinking about the like, you know, the price of qubit, maybe It's. It's maybe 100 times cheaper.”
Listen at 42:15
Yakumo plans to sell full-stack quantum computers within five years.
“we thinking about selling our one full stack corner computers next five years.”
Listen at 42:40
Yakumo expects data-oriented quantum computing services to become relevant after 2035.
“And next five years after 2035, for example it's time to think about how to use this corner compute as a data.”
Listen at 43:12
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