Sep 24, 2026 · 44 min
Refining constraints could keep oil prices elevated for years
Global Gas Shortage: This Is When Oil Price Doubles | Josef Schachter
The episode connects today’s diesel shock and Hormuz risks to a longer-term supply problem that could reshape fuel costs and energy investment.
- 1Refinery shortages and record diesel margins reveal constraints that an export ban alone cannot solve.
- 2Shipping risk around the Strait of Hormuz keeps crude prices high even when some flows continue.
- 3Schachter sees $120–$140 oil during the conflict, with $200 possible only after deeper structural shortages emerge.
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Josef Schachter distinguishes a conflict-driven $120–$140 oil scenario from a structural shortage that could eventually produce $200 oil.
The brief
Record diesel prices expose how refinery limits affect trucking and the wider economy, while the Iran conflict raises fresh questions about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Josef Schachter argues that banning diesel exports might lower domestic prices temporarily, but expanded refining, imports, infrastructure, and cheaper crude address the deeper problem.
The war premium reflects shipping risk and insurance costs, not simply missing barrels; alternative routes help, but cannot erase the strategic importance of Hormuz.
Schachter contrasts Venezuela’s damaged oil infrastructure with Canada’s supply security and argues that ports, pipelines, LNG projects, and transportation links remain decisive.
The standout forecast separates scenarios: $120–$140 oil during the conflict, while $200 requires a structural supply-demand imbalance that could emerge in the 2030s.
The conversation closes with Schachter’s energy-market investment lens, including Tourmaline as a bargain after a strong run across energy equities.