Sep 28, 2026 · 1h 43m
Listen from 9:42
Listen at 9:42
Republicans face a midterm reckoning as Trump’s message falters
Madonna's Vile VMAs Performance, the Tom Brady Lesson, Plus How the GOP Can Avoid a Midterms "Nightmare," with Mark Halperin | Ep. 1407
The discussion examines whether Republican vulnerabilities among key voters and Trump’s political choices could produce major losses in 2026.
- 1Republicans face weakening support among Latino voters, independents, and young people across several competitive states.
- 2Mark Halperin argues Democrats could exploit Republican control of Congress, but their strategic execution remains uncertain.
- 3The episode contrasts celebrity grievance politics with Justin Verlander’s family-centered retirement decision.
Don't miss
Justin Verlander’s daughter joins him on the field during his emotional final game, underscoring his decision to retire for his family.
The brief
Megyn Kelly and Mark Halperin assess Republican vulnerability before the 2026 midterms, pointing to weak support among Latino voters, independents, and young people in several states.
They argue Trump’s media fights, shifting foreign-policy rhetoric, and public rapport with Zohran Mamdani may distract from the economic and domestic accomplishments Republicans need to emphasize.
The conversation then turns to celebrity culture, with Kelly criticizing Madonna’s provocative MTV Music Awards performance and Naomi Watts’s comments about identity and self-image.
The episode’s emotional center arrives with Justin Verlander’s final game, when his daughter joins him on the field as he retires to be more present for his family.
Taken together, the episode weighs political vulnerability and public spectacle against the quieter credibility of responsibility, family, and a well-timed exit.
What was said on this episode
38 statements · 6 positive · 28 negative · 1 mixed · 3 neutral
Republicans’ midterm position is currently very grim.
“this is the state of play right now”
Listen at 4:44
Democrats would currently gain at least 25 House and six Senate seats.
“Democrats would pick up at least 25 House seats net and at least six Senate seats net today”
Listen at 5:58
Republicans risk losing close races because independents have withdrawn support.
“The worry is any close race, they'll lose because they've lost a lot of support from independents.”
Listen at 7:13
Republicans’ failure to address healthcare costs is a major political problem.
“the failure to address the cost of health care”
Listen at 9:33
A Republican-passed law restricted some people’s healthcare access.
“Republicans passed a law that restricted some people's access to health care.”
Listen at 9:42
Three consecutive polls showed the South Carolina Senate race virtually tied.
“there have been now three straight polls that have shown the race virtually tied”
Listen at 11:01
Roger Marshall is not currently leading the Kansas Senate race.
“I really don't think the Republican incumbent, Roger Marshall, is the leader at this point.”
Listen at 11:33
Republicans could lose substantially more Senate seats than currently expected.
“I wouldn't be surprised, again, if they lost well more than the number of Senate seats. that people have talked about.”
Listen at 12:21
Effective negative ads, turnout, and presidential visits could save many Republican seats.
“if they execute on negative ads, if they execute on turnout to vote, if they execute on presidential visits and vice presidential visits, they can save a lot of these seats still.”
Listen at 12:45
Republicans will retain a major financial advantage in the midterms.
“they'll have a big money advantage”
Listen at 13:30
A Democratic wave would reverse many Republican state legislative gains.
“in a blue wave, you're going to see so many of the gains that Republicans have made undone”
Listen at 16:07
Republican congressional losses could improve their chances of retaining the White House in 2028.
“if the Republicans lose. the House, and or the Senate, let's say they lose both, it improves their chances of holding on to the White House two years later.”
Listen at 18:25
Democrats could use congressional control to prepare for a future presidential victory.
“there's a chance that the Democrats could use that power the way the Democrats did in 1990 to lay the groundwork for Bill Clinton to win.”
Listen at 19:35
Democrats used congressional control to pressure Republicans and contrast Bush with public opinion.
“They used the power to control Congress to create uncomfortable votes for Republicans and to contrast President Bush's positions with public opinion.”
Listen at 20:00
Democrats lack politically saleable ideas for lowering prices.
“they have a socialist wing and they don't have any ideas that would lower prices that they think they can sell to the country”
Listen at 20:56
Declining interest in Trump among MAGA audiences is a serious warning sign for him.
“The fact that Trump's name, the topic of Trump is not as interesting to MAGA audiences as before is a horrible sign. for him”
Listen at 23:03
Trump’s media fight is overshadowed by voters’ high diesel costs.
“when people are paying 650 for diesel. It's like, you know, this is just like a sideshow.”
Listen at 24:01
The Trump White House is using taxpayer money for political advertisements.
“using our tax dollars to run political ads”
Listen at 26:20
Taxpayer funds should not pay for the White House’s political messaging.
“our tax dollars shouldn't be paying for that”
Listen at 28:21
Trump’s contradictory Iran statements have made presidential words appear meaningless.
“the words of a president. in the context of a global conflict that affects every corner of the world where nuclear weapons are at issue. I never thought the words of a president could be so meaningless”
Listen at 33:21
Trump should stop publicly discussing the Iran war.
“there's no upside. There's no upside to talking about the war.”
Listen at 35:00
Trump’s continued public discussion of Iran is politically damaging.
“it literally is only negative as best anybody I know can tell.”
Listen at 35:13
Trump should stop discussing Iran and Ukraine absent meaningful developments.
“Stop talking about Iran. Stop talking about Ukraine unless you got something to say that's meaningful.”
Listen at 37:10
Trump will be blamed for Republican midterm losses.
“he will be tagged”
Listen at 39:24
Republican midterm losses would be attributed to war, prices, ethics, and healthcare.
“it's because of the war and gas prices. and ethics and health care. And those are all going to be laid at his feet.”
Listen at 39:57
A Democratic-controlled chamber would launch investigations of the Trump administration.
“If the Democrats have either chamber or both. There will be investigations.”
Listen at 45:58
The political impact of Democratic investigations will depend on their execution.
“how skillfully are they done?”
Listen at 46:04
Hispanic voters are drifting from Republicans because of war and high prices.
“if you talk to Hispanic voters who voted Republican but now have drifted either to Democrat or undecided, it's just the same thing as for everybody else. They don't understand why we're in a war, why prices are so high.”
Listen at 48:20
Florida’s Senate and governor races could become competitive for Republicans.
“Florida would be in play. both Senate race and governor's race”
Listen at 49:40
Florida is currently problematic for Republicans because Trump and his policies are unpopular.
“Florida, which has been a citadel for the Republican Party, is a problem right now, primarily because of the president and the unpopularity of both him and his policies.”
Listen at 49:49
Madonna’s attempt to maintain youthful sexual provocation appears desperate.
“try so desperately to stay in the Sydney Sweeney lane looks just that, desperate.”
Listen at 55:02
Women should understand that sexual appeal is not required for social value.
“There needs to be a point in life in 2026 America where women know that the sex appeal is not required to be valued.”
Listen at 1:02:37
Gender-transitioning young people are unlikely to have happy lives.
“I don't think Kai Schreiber is likely to have a happy existence because none of them does.”
Listen at 1:13:41
Elliot Page’s gender transition is characterized as mental illness.
“This is an example of a woman's illness, mental illness, to be exact. That's why it was in the DSM four.”
Listen at 1:16:04
New York Magazine’s cover featuring Elliot Page is dangerous to young people.
“New York Magazine, you are doing something very dangerous by putting this person on the cover”
Listen at 1:16:20
Football was Tom Brady’s highest personal priority.
“football has been his number one love, as that Instagram post seemed to suggest.”
Listen at 1:25:42
Professional NFL football cannot be pursued part-time, unlike modeling.
“NFL football cannot be done part-time. Cannot. Modeling can, but NFL football cannot.”
Listen at 1:27:09
Professional NFL football cannot be pursued part-time.
“NFL football cannot be done part-time.”
Listen at 1:27:09
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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