Sep 20, 2026 · 38 min
Rising yields put the Fed’s market balancing act to the test
Fed To Hike Into ‘Train Wreck’; How Will Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold, Bonds React? | Gareth Soloway
The episode connects a possible rate hike with bond-market stress, sticky energy-driven inflation, asset valuations, and recession risk.
- 1Gareth Soloway expects a measured 25-basis-point hike as persistent inflation limits the Federal Reserve’s room to reassure markets.
- 2Rising long-term Treasury yields could pressure stocks, Bitcoin, and economic activity even if policymakers avoid a larger rate increase.
- 3Soloway sees near-term support for stocks but warns that excessive stimulus and an overextended AI trade raise longer-term reversal risks.
Don't miss
Soloway links record diesel costs to transportation, manufacturing, shipping, and consumer prices, explaining why inflation may remain sticky.
The brief
Ahead of the FOMC meeting, David Lin and Gareth Soloway examine a market selloff spanning stocks, gold, and Bitcoin as Treasury yields rise and inflation remains difficult to contain.
Soloway expects a 25-basis-point hike, arguing that the Federal Reserve cannot ignore persistent inflation, elevated oil and diesel costs, or the credibility pressures building in bond markets.
The central tension is whether higher long-term yields or a larger policy-rate increase would do more damage, with the bond market potentially forcing the Fed to respond.
Soloway remains cautiously bullish on stocks through year-end, but sees recession risk ahead and identifies the AI trade as vulnerable if demand and expectations have moved too far forward.
The discussion widens to Bitcoin and gold: regulatory clarity and risk appetite shape crypto, while gold’s breakout may still require a retest before another advance.
Soloway’s broader warning is that prolonged Federal Reserve support may have delayed necessary adjustment, leaving markets exposed to a deeper downturn later.