Oct 10, 2026 · 1h 43m
Roberts sees value and bonds broadening a tech-led market
Value Stocks Set To Outperform Tech Into The End Of Year? | Lance Roberts
The discussion weighs a possible shift beyond technology against rising yields, credit risk, tax constraints, and the need to rebalance before conditions change.
- 1A potential year-end rally could broaden into value, financials, utilities, small caps, and equal-weighted stocks beyond technology.
- 2Bonds can restore dependable income and lower volatility, but duration, real yields, credit quality, and timing determine their usefulness.
- 3Higher rates expose the risks of chasing returns, while portfolio rebalancing and changing course can prevent fragile assumptions from becoming strategy.
Don't miss
Lance Roberts explains how years of suppressed rates pushed investors toward fragile risks, and why higher safe yields change that calculation.
The brief
Lance Roberts and Adam Taggart open with choppy markets, portfolio rebalancing, and the possibility that a stronger year-end rally could spread beyond technology.
Roberts argues that small caps, mid caps, and equal-weighted stocks could participate more fully, while historical election patterns add context without resolving the market’s direction.
The bond discussion turns on a central tension: yields may still rise, but rates that climb too far would weaken growth and limit the economy’s ability to absorb them.
Roberts frames bonds as tools for income, lower volatility, and principal return rather than an equity surrender, with real yield and target allocations guiding decisions.
Credit spreads, junk bonds, municipal debt, and tax treatment show why safety is not uniform and why weaker borrowers can signal broader stress first.
The standout lesson is behavioral: prolonged low rates pushed investors outward on the risk curve, making rebalancing and changing course essential when circumstances shift.
What was said on this episode
20 statements · 11 positive · 7 negative · 2 neutral
Market performance divergence supports rotating portfolios toward value stocks.
“this argued for that rotation to value”
Listen at 12:30
Fourth-quarter returns average about 6.6% in midterm election years under stated conditions.
“The fourth quarter tends to yield about a 6.6% average rate of return in a mid-term. election year.”
Listen at 15:39
Sixteen of the last nineteen midterm years had positive market returns.
“Out of the last 19 midterm years, 16 were positive, three were negative.”
Listen at 15:59
Current liquidity, sentiment, buybacks, and earnings conditions could drive markets higher through year-end.
“there's all the catalyst you need for this market to run through year end”
Listen at 17:22
Gen Z investors have been conditioned to believe markets do not decline.
“you're seeing this younger generation who has been trained that markets don't go down”
Listen at 54:13
Interest rates have normalized toward levels justified by economic growth and broader economic conditions.
“all interest rates have done is just actually move back to where they should be given economic growth and what's happening in the overall economy”
Listen at 59:29
Attractive bond alternatives may draw capital away from equity markets.
“that all good alternative is going to start extracting capital from the markets potentially”
Listen at 59:46
Accelerating flows into bonds would create problems for equity markets.
“if it accelerates, that's where it becomes a problem for the markets”
Listen at 1:00:02
Investors have shifted toward highly risky market segments seeking returns.
“we've just seen this whole move into the most riskiest corners of the markets”
Listen at 1:04:38
Markets have adopted the expectation that the Federal Reserve will support every dip.
“Every dip will be bought because the Federal Reserve will step in.”
Listen at 1:04:55
During a major market correction, investors will move money into Treasuries for safety.
“when we get into the big market correction, wherever it occurs, five years from now, three years from now, 10 years from now, when that occurs, money's going to go into treasuries for safety”
Listen at 1:21:47
Lance plans to buy distressed stocks and good value stocks after a major correction.
“I'm going to be buying stocks that have been blown out. I'm going to buy good value stocks.”
Listen at 1:22:34
A distressed ExxonMobil bond trading at 80 cents could represent an unusually attractive opportunity.
“You're going to see an ExxonMobil bond that's trading at 80 cents on the dollar, like we saw back in 2008. That's a gift that you very rarely get.”
Listen at 1:22:47
Lance's firm took profits from technology stocks after substantial gains.
“we were taking gains out of a lot of our tech stocks that have had big runs”
Listen at 1:24:18
AMD rose substantially and NVIDIA reached all-time highs.
“AMD has had a huge run. NVIDIA hit all-time highs.”
Listen at 1:24:22
Lance's firm bought Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares.
“We bought some Berkshire Hathaway this week, the B-share class at Berkshire Hathaway.”
Listen at 1:25:07
Lance expects some rotation into the value sector.
“we're expecting to see a bit of a rotation maybe into that value sector”
Listen at 1:25:21
Lance's firm added to JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs after pressure on their shares.
“He also added to JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, which have been under a tremendous amount of pressure.”
Listen at 1:25:58
A 7.5% mortgage rate is suppressing demand for 30-year mortgages.
“nobody wants to get a 30-year mortgage right now because it's 7.5%”
Listen at 1:26:54
Higher rates are reducing mortgage and commercial-loan activity.
“We're seeing mortgages dry up a bit here. We're seeing commercial loans dry up a bit.”
Listen at 1:26:59
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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