Sep 15, 2026 · 40 min
Rosen urges real estate investors back to fundamentals
Do It Again: Real Estate’s Return to Old-School Value Creation
Higher rates, shorter capital horizons, and AI-driven demand are forcing investors to rethink valuation, asset selection, and operating discipline.
- 1Elevated real interest rates demand higher cap rates and more disciplined underwriting across real estate.
- 2San Francisco’s repriced offices and recovering multifamily market create opportunity, but execution and policy remain decisive.
- 3AI is fueling data-center demand while abundant data still cannot replace experience, context, and judgment.
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Rosen connects the 2007 mortgage crisis to today’s data-rich market, arguing that judgment and context remain essential to avoid catastrophic decisions.
The brief
Ken Rosen, a veteran real estate economist and Berkeley leader, traces how policy, capital markets, and changing urban needs have shaped his five-decade career.
Rosen argues that the era of cheap money and short-term funds has run its course, putting asset selection, leasing, operations, and placemaking back at the center.
San Francisco’s recovery offers a test case: AI-driven job growth is improving multifamily conditions while distressed office pricing opens possibilities for redevelopment and housing.
Data centers may lead the next AI-fueled property boom, but Rosen expects technological change, international competition, and eventual overbuilding to bring a correction.
The episode’s broader warning is that data cannot interpret itself; the 2007 mortgage crisis shows how flawed assumptions can turn analysis into catastrophe.