Jun 7, 2026 · 40 min
Secondary markets surge as tech giants delay public offerings
Inside the Private Stock Market Boom: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI & the Rise of Secondaries
The rise of robust secondary markets is reshaping how everyday investors access high-growth tech startups before they ever hit the public stock exchange.
- 1Elite startups are staying private longer, driving the rapid growth of secondary trading platforms like Forge and Schwab.
The brief
Private tech giants are staying private longer, starving public markets of high-growth tech stocks. Companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are bypassing the traditional IPO route entirely, forcing a massive structural shift in how tech is financed.
To solve the liquidity crunch for early employees and venture capitalists, secondary markets are booming. Platforms like Forge and Schwab are stepping in, democratizing access to these private tech giants and creating a parallel stock market for accredited investors.
Industry experts Brad Gerstner and Kelly Rodriques join the conversation to analyze this secondary market surge. They outline how these platforms operate, the mechanics of private liquidity, and whether this boom risks inflating a dangerous private market bubble.
While secondary markets offer unprecedented access to elite startups, they also introduce unique risks. Without the strict disclosure requirements of public markets, investors must navigate complex valuations in sectors like artificial intelligence and space tech.
What was said on this episode
27 statements · 19 positive · 6 negative · 1 mixed · 1 neutral
Private markets will become accessible to US and global investors.
“We see a world where the private market opens up and is accessible to any US and global investor.”
Listen at 0:06
AI-basket companies have achieved average growth of 300%.
“These companies have grown on average 300%.”
Listen at 0:17
Secondary-market volume is twice its 2021 peak.
“At the end of 21, we're double that.”
Listen at 1:42
SpaceX represents 31% of primary venture activity involving secondary purchases in 2025.
“SpaceX now represents 31% of all primary venture activity is buying into these secondaries in 2025.”
Listen at 1:52
Secondaries now compete with IPOs and acquisitions as primary venture exit routes.
“Secondaries are now competing with IPOs and acquisitions as the principal way that these guys are exiting.”
Listen at 2:02
Secondary shares trade at a 106% price relative to stated market value.
“today it's at 106. So a premium in the market as of Q1.”
Listen at 2:35
Employee liquidity programs are necessary when companies remain private longer.
“if companies are going to be staying private longer, this is absolutely necessary.”
Listen at 3:41
Companies will remain private for longer.
“I think it is very clear that companies are going to stay private for longer.”
Listen at 4:27
Companies generally lack a good reason to remain private longer.
“I don't think there is actually a good reason to stay private longer.”
Listen at 4:38
Private-market investors may soften feedback to management to preserve investment access.
“private investors are often selling to management teams. And at some level, that can mean telling management teams what they need to hear because you want to be able to keep participating in the rounds.”
Listen at 7:32
Regulated SPV structures serve a legitimate market purpose.
“they do serve a purpose in the market.”
Listen at 11:38
Retail investors should carefully research private-market investments.
“it's time to be careful, to do your work, to be thoughtful.”
Listen at 14:58
Investors with $100,000 should consider deploying only $30,000 initially.
“if I had a stack of 100, I may put 30 to work today.”
Listen at 15:56
Venture investors should consider selling portions of highly valued private holdings.
“if we're going to stay private for longer and we're going to have trillion dollar private companies and databricks at $200 billion, you got to think about is today a day we should be selling some and returning it to our investors.”
Listen at 17:12
Closed-end private-company funds primarily represent a bet on investor FOMO.
“the closed end funds are a very different bet because you're betting on fomo.”
Listen at 21:15
Venture firms lacking exposure to trillion-dollar companies will have weaker returns and DPI.
“if you're a venture firm and you do not have material exposure to one of these trillion dollar plus companies that you had many, many chances to buy into, not only your returns not going to be good, but you're not going to have DPI on a relative basis”
Listen at 22:13
Public listings will unlock hundreds of billions in late-stage private-market demand.
“this is going to be hundreds of billions of dollars of new late stage demand that is coming back to the market”
Listen at 24:36
Retail investors should seek less prominent, earlier-stage private opportunities.
“the retail investor coming into this space needs to look down market and look at interesting opportunities that aren't the things that are on CNBC every day and have access to them earlier.”
Listen at 27:33
Technology assets are currently valued near full levels.
“Right now, everything in the world of technology is pretty fully valued”
Listen at 28:43
Retail investors can perform adequately if they hold through market drawdowns.
“as long as the retail investor can stay in that product through the drawdown, they're going to do fine.”
Listen at 29:13
Technology markets are neither at their peak nor their trough.
“We may not be at the top, but we ain't at the bottom.”
Listen at 29:48
A semiconductor-market consolidation could cause high-beta assets to fall 30–40%.
“We could have a normal run of the mill consolidation in the public markets in the semi index of 10 or 20%, which means high beta would be down 30 to 40%.”
Listen at 31:40
Agentic software companies could be acquired by major technology firms seeking faster AI-agent capabilities.
“The upside on these businesses is that they actually have already built very sophisticated agentic layers and that all these guys, Metta, Google, SpaceX come along and say we want to buy you because we want to accelerate our path into agent.”
Listen at 33:40
Revolut operates as a neobank with a next-generation technology stack.
“it's a neo bank that has a completely next generation stack.”
Listen at 34:29
AI infrastructure requires a fundamental reinvention of networking.
“I do think we need to reinvent networking.”
Listen at 35:27
Lowering drone-delivery costs to $2 will greatly increase consumption.
“if you can take the delivery cost down from $15 to $5 5 and then eventually 2 that's going to just drive consumption massively”
Listen at 36:49
Zipline’s medical-drone service reduced maternal mortality in some African countries by 90–95%.
“they have cut the maternal mortality rate in some of these African countries by 90 to 95%.”
Listen at 38:02
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.