Oct 12, 2026 · 23 min
Shipping risks keep energy markets tight despite diesel deal
A few drops of diesel from Russia and Palantir hits new all-time high.
The episode explains why a headline diesel supply increase may do little to ease prices while freight, refining, weather, and macro risks remain significant.
- 1A reported Russian diesel deal offers limited relief against global demand, refining costs, and constrained shipping capacity.
- 2Hormuz-related attacks and expensive tanker routes are reshaping oil transport economics from the United States to Asia.
- 3Gold, silver, grains, and soft commodities face tests from inflation data, Treasury yields, the dollar, and positioning shifts.
Don't miss
The sharpest market insight is that transporting oil from the United States to Asia has become extraordinarily expensive, undermining the apparent relief from additional diesel supply.
The brief
John Hardy and Ole Hansen argue that a reported Russian diesel deal has limited market signal: the volumes are small beside demand, while refining costs keep prices elevated.
Shipping disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz add another constraint, with insurance and tanker costs making routes from the United States to Asia extraordinarily expensive.
Hansen says El Niño matters less immediately than the unwinding of speculative grain and soft-commodity positions after a stronger corn yield forecast from the USDA.
Gold and silver now face a macro test: inflation data, Treasury yields, and the dollar will determine whether precious metals can regain momentum after gold slipped below 4,100.
The discussion closes on Judy Shelton, whose controversial, strongly pro-Trump profile could carry implications for markets and policy.
What was said on this episode
17 statements · 6 positive · 7 negative · 1 mixed · 3 neutral
The announced diesel supply equals only 14 hours of U.S. November demand.
“what we're looking at is, in fact, 14 hours of US total demand for diesel in November.”
Listen at 2:08
The full discussed diesel amount could cover approximately ten days of supply.
“if the total amount has been talked about, we're looking at perhaps 10 days worth supply.”
Listen at 2:33
Gas oil continues trading more than $80 above Brent.
“we're still paying more than $80 above Brent for gas oil”
Listen at 2:44
Lower diesel prices require full utilization of refinery capacity, particularly in the Gulf.
“if we need to see diesel prices come down, we need to see refinery capacity being fully utilized.”
Listen at 3:48
Shipping a supertanker from the U.S. to Asia costs about $80 million, or $40 per barrel.
“We are looking at, I believe it was $80 million. So that's $40 a barrel you add on top of the price.”
Listen at 4:46
Gold's 4,235 level appears to be the current ceiling.
“that really seems to be the ceiling for now.”
Listen at 7:46
Demand for gold ETFs continues increasing.
“ETF demand continues to increase.”
Listen at 8:04
Japanese authorities are expected to intervene in dollar-yen markets eventually.
“which... is seen inevitable at some point.”
Listen at 11:24
SpaceX's satellite-telephony announcement sharply pressured T-Mobile US, AT&T, and Verizon shares.
“This did impact, even worse than was the case pre-market, those incumbent providers out there, T-Mobile US, AT&T, and Verizon, all down to very large degrees.”
Listen at 12:59
Palantir rose over 5% and reached an all-time high.
“the pound tier was on the list of having a very solid day on Friday, up over 5%. And I looked at a chart and I'm noticing it has managed to reach an all-time high.”
Listen at 13:38
Goldman Sachs could report a very strong quarter.
“Wouldn't be surprised if it had a very strong quarter.”
Listen at 15:12
AI token prices have sharply declined since July.
“since July, we've seen a real collapse in the price per token for, of course, AI.”
Listen at 15:40
GPU rental prices have remained relatively stable.
“GPU rental prices are quite steady.”
Listen at 15:51
OpenAI and Anthropic may seek regulation to create an oligopoly and gain pricing power.
“there's been talk about they're trying to get these regulatory barriers put up so that they become sort of the oligopoly of providers and get some kind of pricing power”
Listen at 16:20
The Democrats are expected to win the U.S. House.
“the base case is that the Democrats take the House.”
Listen at 21:17
The worst-case Senate outcome is a 50-50 partisan split.
“I think worst case, we have a 50-50 Senate.”
Listen at 21:21
Democrats could win control of the U.S. Senate.
“I think it's certainly possible they take the Senate.”
Listen at 21:25
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.