Oct 13, 2026 · 20 min
Treasuries test their safe-haven credentials as tech stocks weaken
Are treasuries a safe haven again or is that too crazy a notion?
The episode examines whether strong demand for US Treasuries signals a return to their traditional defensive role amid uncertainty in technology and AI markets.
- 1Technology and AI-related stocks remain under pressure, particularly in Asian trading, while the median stock is nearly unchanged.
- 2Strong post-holiday demand for US Treasuries raises the question of whether investors are returning to traditional safe-haven assets.
- 3The market backdrop shows sharp divergence between concentrated technology weakness and broader equity-market resilience.
Don't miss
The key moment is the shift from weakening technology and AI stocks to the possibility that strong Treasury demand marks a return to safe-haven behavior.
The brief
John Hardy opens Saxo Market Call with the standard disclaimer before framing Tuesday, October 13, 2026, around a sharp divergence: technology and AI stocks weaken while the median stock is nearly unchanged.
The pressure is especially visible in Asian trading, where technology-linked weakness contrasts with a broader market that has not moved in lockstep.
That divergence turns attention to US Treasuries, which saw strong demand after the holiday and may be regaining their traditional safe-haven status.
The episode’s central tension is whether bond strength reflects a durable defensive shift or merely a response to the latest bout of uncertainty in technology and AI markets.
Hardy leaves listeners with a market question rather than a forecast: can Treasuries again provide the protection investors expect when risk appetite deteriorates?
What was said on this episode
7 statements · 4 positive · 2 negative · 1 neutral
High European natural-gas prices are squeezing the European economy.
“this is, again, prohibitively expensive, just really putting a squeeze on the economy here with these types of prices”
Listen at 4:06
U.S. Treasuries may be resuming their traditional safe-haven function.
“you're starting to wonder if U.S. treasuries are serving their old-fashioned safe haven function here”
Listen at 5:08
USD/JPY and broader yen pairs need to decline for the yen rally to continue.
“that pair needs to sell off and really yen pairs more broadly. need to sell off to maintain sort of a sense that the yen is going to continue to rally here.”
Listen at 6:12
Muse has good one-day user retention.
“the retention is good after one day”
Listen at 14:07
ChatGPT’s three-to-four-week retention was approximately 23%.
“the three or four week retention of ChatGBT being on the order of only 23%”
Listen at 14:12
Meta’s Muse app is retaining users effectively.
“Muse is proving sticky.”
Listen at 14:32
A parody depicts Elon Musk and his Mars colony.
“Somebody created of Elon Musk and his Mars colony”
Listen at 15:29
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
Books & mentions
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