Sep 12, 2026 · 26 min
Silver model gives Democrats a Senate opening
Still Counting: Trump vs. The BLUE WAVE: A Midterm Extravaganza
The episode tests a favorable Democratic forecast against the candidate quality, polarization, and polling uncertainty shaping individual Senate races.
- 1Nate Silver’s Flipper model gives Democrats a strong chance of winning the Senate, while small probability shifts remain easy to overread.
- 2Roy Cooper’s North Carolina candidacy makes the race a test of Democratic strength, state-level appeal, and polling reliability.
- 3Michigan’s contest turns on candidate quality, progressive positioning, polarization, and how voters interpret campaign identity and messaging.
Don't miss
The hosts use North Carolina’s Roy Cooper race to ask whether a strong candidate can overcome the state’s partisan movement—and what a loss would say about polling.
The brief
Nate Silver, Claire Malone, and Galen Druke introduce Still Counting, a politics-and-data show that opens with the midterms and a question: how much can models reveal before campaigns clarify the race?
Silver’s Flipper model gives Democrats a strong chance of winning the Senate, but the hosts stress that small probability changes near a close race are not the same as decisive evidence.
North Carolina becomes the first test: Roy Cooper’s record as a two-term governor gives Democrats a strong candidate, while a loss would signal trouble for the party and the polls.
Michigan raises a different problem, as Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers force a debate over candidate quality, moderation, polarization, identity, and campaign messaging.
The game reaches Iowa, where Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson are next up; the excerpt ends before the hosts begin weighing that contest.
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