Oct 19, 2026 · 46 min
Small businesses brace for higher costs and cautious hiring
Your Paycheck In 2027: Will You Get A Raise Or Get Laid Off? | Holly Wade
Small-business decisions on wages, hiring, investment, and prices could shape where workers find opportunity as inflation, tariffs, and labor shortages persist.
- 1Inflation and labor availability remain small businesses’ leading concerns, keeping wage pressure elevated despite weaker sentiment.
- 2Policy and economic uncertainty is delaying hiring, investment, inventory, and sales decisions among many business owners.
- 3Construction, manufacturing, and expanding service businesses may offer stronger wage growth as skilled-worker shortages persist into 2027.
Don't miss
Holly Wade identifies construction, manufacturing, and expanding service businesses as likely areas for wage growth because skilled labor remains scarce.
The brief
NFIB’s Holly Wade describes a small-business outlook weakened by inflation, labor shortages, and rising input costs, even as owners continue adapting to difficult conditions.
Hiring remains difficult because many businesses cannot find qualified applicants, while retention efforts and wage increases add pressure to already elevated operating costs.
Uncertainty is making owners more conservative: hiring, capital investment, inventory, and sales plans often wait for clearer economic and policy signals.
Tariffs and supplier price increases are forcing manufacturers and retailers to absorb costs or pass them to customers, with smaller retailers facing added pressure from large chains.
AI is presented less as a broad replacement for employees than as a productivity tool that can augment operations, ease labor shortages, and reduce costs.
The clearest opportunity for wage growth appears in construction, manufacturing, and expanding service businesses competing for scarce skilled workers, including tradespeople drawn to data-center projects.
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