Oct 21, 2026 · 27 min
South Texas voters rethink Trump as Senate race tightens
Red, White and Who? The Swing Voters in South Texas
A newly competitive Hispanic electorate could decide whether Republicans retain their gains or Democrats rebuild support in South Texas.
- 1Immigration arrests and economic strain are eroding some South Texas voters’ support for Trump without guaranteeing a Democratic return.
- 2James Talarico is courting conservative and religious voters while Ken Paxton benefits from Trump’s backing and faces scrutiny over his record.
- 3Voters describe themselves as politically independent, making South Texas a test of both parties’ assumptions about the 2024 coalition.
Don't miss
Benny Melendez says he plans to support James Talarico after repeatedly seeing him in the region, while noting he has not seen Ken Paxton there.
The brief
At a delayed South Texas construction site, Benny Melendez has fenced off the property after immigration arrests removed workers and disrupted projects—even though he voted for Trump in 2024.
The Rio Grande Valley shifted Republican across its counties in 2024, but economic hardship and aggressive enforcement have left some Hispanic voters reconsidering Trump without embracing Democrats.
In the Texas Senate race, Democrat James Talarico is emphasizing border security, energy jobs, faith and independence, while Republican Ken Paxton is closely linked to Trump.
Door-to-door interviews reveal the central tension: Trump still motivates some Republicans, but others oppose his endorsed candidates, while Democrats struggle to overcome disagreements on abortion and LGBTQ issues.
Benny plans to support Talarico after repeated personal contact and says South Texas Hispanic voters are loyal to America, not either party—a warning that the electorate remains genuinely purple.
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