Oct 21, 2026 · 1h 11m
SpaceX’s AI ambitions meet a harder earnings reality
Ep 61: $META, $TSLA & $SPCX Earnings, Tesla Roadster, Muse Spark Opens
The discussion tests whether extraordinary AI infrastructure plans, lofty valuations, and aggressive projections can withstand scrutiny over funding, execution, and demand.
- 1SpaceX’s AI data-center ambitions raise major questions about capital needs, revenue assumptions, and the realism of Elon Musk’s projections.
- 2Tesla’s Roadster reveal impressed visually but left technical details, production feasibility, legality, and practical usability unresolved.
- 3Meta’s Muse Spark and local-AI hardware discussion connects open models to memory demand, device economics, and competitive pressure.
Don't miss
The hosts dissect whether SpaceX can realistically fund and build the AI data-center capacity implied by its long-term ambitions.
The brief
Hamid and Dustin begin with portfolio moves in Rocket Lab, IREN, and Bitcoin, using each trade to frame the risks behind their investment decisions.
The central argument arrives with SpaceX: its AI data-center ambitions could be transformative, but the hosts question the capital, revenue, and funding assumptions behind them.
Tesla’s Roadster reveal delivers extraordinary demonstrations, yet the hosts argue that missing technical details and uncertain production make credibility harder to assess.
Meta’s Muse Spark shifts the conversation toward local AI, where larger models could drive memory demand while challenging assumptions about hardware and subscriptions.
Listener questions widen the lens to Anthropic’s valuation, Treasury yields, IREN’s possible contracts, memory stocks, EOS, and Zcash’s privacy model.
What was said on this episode
29 statements · 13 positive · 13 negative · 1 mixed · 2 neutral
Rocket Lab stock may not rebound from its current price.
“there's a good possibility this stock is not going to, uh, start to rebound from the— this price point”
Listen at 3:32
A failed Rocket Lab launch would further reduce its stock price.
“if they don't, the stock price should have a decent— another decent hit”
Listen at 5:42
Rocket Lab stock around $50 is attractively priced after the delay.
“at around $50, after now knowing officially Neutron is delayed, it is a very good price”
Listen at 6:04
Rocket Lab has an exceptionally promising future.
“it just has an incredibly bright future”
Listen at 8:34
Rocket Lab could increase tenfold to a $300 billion valuation.
“if this company 10x from here, it's only a $300 billion company”
Listen at 8:52
IREN is better positioned than CoreWeave if AI growth slows.
“I do think Iron is set up uh, in a stronger spot than CoreWeave”
Listen at 12:07
The AI infrastructure buildout is unlikely to slow soon.
“I don't think that the AI buildout is necessarily slowing down anytime soon”
Listen at 12:13
Hamid doubts sufficient customers exist for SpaceX’s projected data-center revenue.
“I don't see where that comes from”
Listen at 25:47
Data-center rental pricing should be below $20 per watt.
“seems like pricing should be less than $20 per watt”
Listen at 29:02
Micron and Nvidia would benefit substantially if Musk’s projections are correct.
“Micron and, uh, Nvidia are going to do incredibly well”
Listen at 30:48
Tesla’s Roadster event had an exceptional demo but a poor presentation.
“I think it was one of the greatest demos ever and one of the worst presentations ever”
Listen at 32:09
The Tesla Roadster may never be delivered.
“there's a good chance even this one will not get delivered”
Listen at 37:53
The rocket Roadster version will not become a road-usable vehicle.
“the rocket version of it will never get delivered in a way that it could just drive down the street”
Listen at 38:22
Memory hardware will become increasingly important for running local AI models.
“memory, uh, is going to be so important now and in the future”
Listen at 44:20
AI-focused stocks may fall more than Micron during an AI bubble.
“I think that some of the others would get hit much harder than a Micron”
Listen at 49:06
EOS is not dead or close to failure.
“no, I, I don't think EOS is dead or close to it”
Listen at 51:15
Anthropic’s potential $2 trillion IPO valuation is unjustified.
“I don't think a $2 trillion IPO valuation is justified”
Listen at 53:19
Anthropic’s growth trajectory can justify a $2 trillion valuation.
“It's easy to justify a $2 trillion valuation based on, again, these types of trajectories”
Listen at 55:07
Google and Meta could materially pressure Anthropic’s business.
“Google and Meta could make the life of an Anthropic very, very difficult”
Listen at 56:19
A severe market correction would make capital raising more difficult.
“it makes it much more difficult to raise money again”
Listen at 57:53
IREN owns its land, power, and equipment across its infrastructure stack.
“Iron owns the land, the power, the equipment”
Listen at 58:47
IREN and Nebius are both strong neocloud companies.
“I think both are, you know, strong, uh, neo-cloud companies”
Listen at 1:00:02
Lam Research appears less attractive than Micron at current multiples.
“why is anybody buying this over Micron would be my question”
Listen at 1:01:12
Meta’s lack of 2027 revenue guidance is not negative.
“the fact that Meta is not giving you 2027 revenue outlook is not a bad thing”
Listen at 1:03:27
“it just means they're being conservative”
Listen at 1:03:36
Tesla currently has approximately 500 robotaxis.
“we have like 500 robotaxis right now”
Listen at 1:04:35
Zcash’s recent resurgence may not persist.
“I'm just not convinced it's here to stay”
Listen at 1:06:07
Dustin plans to focus his cryptocurrency purchases on Bitcoin this year.
“this year I'm just staying focused on Bitcoin”
Listen at 1:07:37
IREN stock could decline to $20.
“I could also see them going to $20”
Listen at 1:10:05
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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