Oct 26, 2026 · 24 min
Stocks rebound as breakouts test a resistant market
Tech Attempts Comeback; Elastic, Analog Devices, Victoria’s Secret In Focus
The episode weighs promising moves in software, semiconductors, and retail against indexes that still need confirmation above resistance.
- 1The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow rebounded but remain near resistance, leaving market direction vulnerable to sharp reversals.
- 2Elastic, Analog Devices, and Victoria's Secret each showed breakout potential, though their setups carry different technical and fundamental risks.
- 3Oil, Treasury yields, position sizing, and risk management could shape how investors respond if volatility returns.
Don't miss
Victoria’s Secret breaks out from a tight handle-like area on above-average volume, prompting discussion of its base, earnings history, and 100 level.
The brief
Alissa Coram and Justin Nielsen open with a broad market rebound, but the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow remain near resistance and need confirmation before the move can be trusted.
The discussion moves from cybersecurity and defense to oil and the 10-year Treasury yield, stressing that daily gains matter less than a stock’s chart position and risk profile.
Elastic cleared 100 as software strengthened, while its decelerating fundamental growth complicates an otherwise compelling chart setup and highlights the danger of treating every breakout alike.
Analog Devices broke above a trend line and 400, with support at its 50-day moving average; the move may signal renewed strength across semiconductor stocks.
Victoria’s Secret produced the episode’s clearest breakout, leaving the hosts to weigh above-average volume, improving base structure, earnings history, and a possible test of 100.
The closing view is constructive but conditional: indexes must clear resistance, while position sizing and risk management remain essential if volatility resumes.
What was said on this episode
17 statements · 7 positive · 5 negative · 3 mixed · 2 neutral
The Nasdaq needs strength to reclaim its 50-day and 21-day moving averages.
“we need some strength to get this back above the 50-day and the 21-day moving average line as a start”
Listen at 2:52
SMH had fallen 20% from its recent high before today’s rebound.
“SMH Vanek Semiconductor ETF, that was off its just recent high by 20% going into today”
Listen at 5:18
Software has been a strong market area.
“software has been an area of strength”
Listen at 6:07
Lockheed Martin remains far below its 200-day moving average.
“it's still so far below the 200 day moving average line”
Listen at 8:21
Lockheed Martin is unsuitable for this strength-buying strategy.
“that's something that is a little bit more untouchable”
Listen at 8:28
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged this week.
“the expectation is that there isn't going to be any movement”
Listen at 9:11
Elastic’s stock is becoming somewhat extended.
“starting to get a little extended here”
Listen at 10:55
Elastic’s fundamentals are strong but growth decelerated in the latest quarter.
“the fundamentals here, while overall pretty strong, you did have that deceleration in the most recent quarter”
Listen at 11:59
Elastic may encounter overhead supply from 2025 price levels.
“there's still some of this overhead supply that's, you know, back from 2025 that we may be hitting at this point”
Listen at 13:11
Semiconductor stocks are cyclical.
“Chips can be cyclical”
Listen at 15:08
Investors should favor cyclical stocks early in their recoveries.
“you want to kind of be on the earlier side of the cyclical stocks when they turn around”
Listen at 15:28
Analog Devices has a favorable setup and improving earnings.
“I do like the setup here. I do like the way that the earnings are going. There's a lot of things going for this.”
Listen at 15:39
Victoria’s Secret made a solid breakout above resistance.
“this was just a solid break above that”
Listen at 18:36
Victoria’s Secret recently delivered strong earnings growth and estimates.
“this is another one where... Maybe that earnings growth hasn't been there for long, but it certainly has come on very strong lately in the last couple quarters and estimates also looking very strong”
Listen at 18:42
Victoria’s Secret may next test the 100 price level.
“Next stop, 100. Let's see if it can get there.”
Listen at 20:07
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq require further confirmation.
“there is more work to be done here”
Listen at 21:01
Investors should avoid rushing and remain patient while building watch lists.
“there's no reason to try and be too early. So just be patient and keep on building those watch lists and be ready.”
Listen at 21:44
Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.
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