Oct 27, 2026 · 1h 10m

Strategists test the limits of a Democratic wave

Yes We Flan (with Steve Schale & David Kochel)

The panel weighs whether turnout, candidate quality, and Trump-era message discipline could reshape contests far beyond the usual battlegrounds.

3 key takeaways

1Michigan’s Democratic environment may carry Abdul El-Sayed despite concerns about messaging, execution, and African-American turnout.
2Iowa candidates are nationalizing less openly, leaving ticket splitting and polling uncertainty central to the Senate and House races.
3A strong Democratic wave could produce surprises in traditionally Republican states, while Minnesota remains a possible Republican upset.

Don't miss

The panel’s discussion of a controversial Michigan attack ad becomes a broader warning about antisemitic tropes, message discipline, and political self-sabotage.

The brief

Steve Shale and David Kochel join Murphy and Heilemann to assess the closing stretch of the midterms, with Michigan, Iowa, and Florida as tests of the national environment.

Michigan becomes the clearest case study: Abdul El-Sayed may benefit from a Democratic wave, but weak messaging, campaign execution, and turnout concerns could narrow his margin.

The panel condemns a Michigan attack ad using antisemitic tropes, arguing that its limited reach still distracts Democrats from affordability and may help Republicans.

Iowa’s contests turn on candidate quality, ticket splitting, and polling uncertainty, while Republicans avoid explicit references to Donald Trump and emphasize bipartisanship.

Florida and possible surprise states test the wave theory, with the panel weighing David Jolly’s challenge, Republican undervote risk, and unusually large House gains.

What was said on this episode

24 statements · 13 positive · 7 negative · 3 mixed · 1 neutral

Steve Schaleon Barack Obama’s support for Abdul El-SayedPositive9:32
Obama can improve El-Sayed’s position but cannot resolve his turnout and coalition problems.
“Obama can help, but Obama can't solve the problem”
Listen at 9:32
David Axelrodon Michigan Senate raceNegative11:53
Michigan’s Senate race could be won by Republicans.
“I actually think that this race could go to the Republicans.”
Listen at 11:53
Steve Schaleon Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan Senate campaignMixed13:10
El-Sayed will narrowly win Michigan’s Senate race but trail Jocelyn Benson significantly.
“I'm going to bet on the wave and think he inches in, but he's going to be way behind Benson.”
Listen at 13:10
David Axelrodon Controversial Michigan attack adNegative16:00
The controversial Michigan ad is helping Mike Rogers.
“I think it is only helping Rogers.”
Listen at 16:00
John Heilemannon Controversial Michigan digital adNeutral16:48
The controversial Michigan digital ad has only $1,000 in spending behind it.
“There's $1,000 behind this ad.”
Listen at 16:48
Steve Schaleon Controversial Michigan attack adNegative18:20
The ad distracts Democrats from their affordability message for 24–48 hours.
“it takes them completely off message for 24 or 48 hours”
Listen at 18:20
Steve Schaleon Republican candidates’ positioning toward Donald TrumpNegative22:31
Republican candidates struggle to distance themselves from Trump while retaining Republican voters.
“it's hard to be on this side of it”
Listen at 22:31
Steve Schaleon African-American turnout in MichiganNegative28:19
African-American undervoting will be sufficient for Rogers to win Michigan.
“I just think that the undervote in the African-American community is going to be enough.”
Listen at 28:19
Steve Schaleon Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan Senate racePositive29:09
The Democratic wave will probably carry El-Sayed to victory in Michigan.
“history tells me in the end, El Sayed probably wins this thing because the wave carries him over the top”
Listen at 29:09
John Heilemannon Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan Senate racePositive29:43
El-Sayed will probably survive the Michigan Senate race.
“if I had to bet like your net worth mike i would bet that he'll survive”
Listen at 29:43
Steve Schaleon Ashley Hinson’s Iowa Senate campaignPositive36:29
Ashley Hinson is well positioned to win Iowa’s Senate race.
“I think she's in good shape.”
Listen at 36:29
Steve Schaleon Ashley Hinson’s Iowa Senate campaignPositive37:12
Ashley Hinson will win Iowa’s Senate race.
“I just think that she's going to pull this off.”
Listen at 37:12
John Heilemannon Iowa SenateMixed41:53
Iowa’s Senate race is likely the country’s closest and could go either way.
“I think it's maybe the closest Senate race in the country. It's a pure coin flip, but it could really go either way.”
Listen at 41:53
Steve Schaleon Ashley Hinson’s Iowa Senate campaignPositive44:04
Ashley Hinson can win if Iowa’s political environment becomes sufficiently neutral.
“I think it's like, you know, if the environment gets neutral enough, I think everything Cottrell said is right based on my observation of it.”
Listen at 44:04
Steve Schaleon Florida early-voting turnoutPositive52:40
Florida Democratic early turnout is higher than in 2022, while Republican turnout is lower.
“Republicans had voted at this point in 2022. Today, it's 22 and a half. Democrats was 23% at this point in 2022. It's 31% today.”
Listen at 52:40
Steve Schaleon Florida governor’s raceMixed53:33
Byron Donalds is expected to win Florida’s governor race, though Jolly could upset him.
“I've gotten to the point to where I expect Donald's to win, but I won't be shocked if David Jolly wins.”
Listen at 53:33
Steve Schaleon David Jolly’s Florida governor campaignPositive56:21
David Jolly’s chance of winning Florida’s governor race is increasing over time.
“every day that goes by, you know, there's a little bit higher possibility that he pulls it out.”
Listen at 56:21
Steve Schaleon Florida's 13th Congressional DistrictPositive57:48
“I think we're going to get an early indication on the night in general. District 13, which is sort of a Pinellas-based seat of Anna Polina Luna. She's running against a brigadier general named General Gray. And, like, if we pick that seat up, which is entirely possible on election night, I think it's probably a 2.30, 2.35 kind of night.”
Listen at 57:48
Steve Schaleon Mississippi Senate racePositive1:01:21
Mississippi remains Steve Shale’s favored potential Democratic Senate surprise.
“I've been saying Mississippi for six months. I'm just going to stick with it.”
Listen at 1:01:21
John Heilemannon South Carolina Senate raceNegative1:01:44
South Carolina’s Senate seat could be lost because of third-party candidates and weak Trump support.
“that's a recipe for potentially losing that seat.”
Listen at 1:01:44
David Axelrodon South Carolina Senate racePositive1:02:09
South Carolina’s Senate race could produce a Democratic upset.
“I think there could be an upset there.”
Listen at 1:02:09
John Heilemannon Peggy FlanaganNegative1:03:00
Peggy Flanagan could unexpectedly lose Minnesota’s Senate race.
“I keep thinking that that could sneak up on people that Peggy Flanagan could end up losing that race.”
Listen at 1:03:00
David Axelrodon Democratic House seat gainsPositive1:04:15
Democrats will gain approximately 18–20 House seats.
“I put the congressional number at about 18 to 20. for Democrats as pickups.”
Listen at 1:04:15
Steve Schaleon Democratic House seat totalPositive1:04:58
Democrats could reach the 230s in House seats on election night.
“I think it could be a night where we push up into the 230s.”
Listen at 1:04:58

Statements are attributed to the speaker as said on the episode and reflect their view at the time, not PodLume's. They are not advice.

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